Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Tue May 07 2024

Valid 12Z Tue May 07 2024 - 12Z Thu May 09 2024

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Ohio Valley on Tuesday and over parts of the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley, and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday and over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley
and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday...

...Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies...

A front extending from the Northern Plains to the Middle Mississippi
Valley and then to the Southern Plain on Tuesday will develop a wave of
low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday. The boundary will
move off the Northeast Coast by Thursday as a second wave of low pressure
develops over the Southern Plains and moves to the Ohio Valley by
Thursday.

As the front advances eastward on Tuesday, it will bring with it showers
and severe thunderstorms, particularly over parts of the Ohio Valley and
Middle Mississippi Valley. In light of this, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of Indiana,
western Ohio, and north-central Kentucky through Wednesday morning.  The
potential hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
There is also a heightened threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and hail two
inches or greater over the area.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of southern Indiana, southwestern Ohio, and north-central Kentucky.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley through Wednesday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Northeast, Southeast, Southern Plains, Central Gulf Coast,
and Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. 

On Wednesday, as the second wave of low pressure moves out of the Southern
Plains into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, the storm will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of Oklahoma, a small part of
Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, southeastern Illinois, southern
Indiana, Tennessee, and a small portion of Mississippi. Therefore, the SPC
has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Southern Plains from Wednesday through Thursday morning.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.  There will be the
added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moreover, there will be an
additional threat of hail two inches or greater over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern
Plains.

Further, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop
over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over the region from Wednesday into Thursday morning. 
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Northeast to Southeast on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the northwestern sector of the country
will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific
Northwest through late Tuesday night. The system will produce rain over
parts of the Northern High Plains and heavy snow over parts of the
Northern Rockies on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Ziegenfelder



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php