Playoff Preview: Jetting onto the forwards

With the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs looming larger, the Colorado Avalanche have a big task ahead of them facing off against the Winnipeg Jets. It hasn’t been a pretty end to the regular season for the Avs, but they benefit knowing they all but don’t have home-ice advantage, and know who they’ll be facing for a week leading up to the start of the series.

Winnipeg’s offense looked as though they’d struggle with the loss of Pierre-Luc DuBois to the Los Angeles Kings during the offseason. But, they filled the holes brilliantly and are a driving force on offense to produce consistent scoring.

Winnipeg Jets Projected Forwards

Kyle Connor (81) - Mark Schiefele (55) - Gabriel Vilardi (13)
Nikolaj Ehlers (26) - Sean Monohan (23) - Tyler Toffoli (73)
David Gustafsson (19) - Adam Lowry (17) - Mason Appleton (22)
Morgan Barron (36) - Vladislav Namestnikov (7) - Alex Iafallo (9)

Extra Forwards: Nino Niederreiter (62), Rasmus Kupari (15), Cole Perfetti (91)

Familiar first-line names

Kyle Connor, Marck Schiefele, and Gabriel Vilardi have been the driving force of offense for the Jets. Connor has 32 goals and 27 assists in 64 games, Schiefele has 25 goals and 45 assists in 73 games, and Vilardi has 21 goals and 14 assists in 45 games.

While they haven’t been together for the entire season due to injury, they can produce. We saw it against the Avs just on Saturday, just outpacing the Avs’ top line. Perhaps their biggest downfall is the lack of a superstar on the top line. But similar to last season’s matchup against the Seattle Kraken, it’s about the depth of the forward group.

Second-line superiority

Perhaps the best line against the Avs this season has been the second line for the Jets. Sean Monohan has brought a different offensive approach, as he scored twice against Colorado on Saturday. His arrival from the Montreal Canadiens before the trade deadline has seen him score 13 goals and 11 assists in 32 games.

Besides him is Tyler Toffoli, who also came over before the trade deadline from the New Jersey Devils. He has six goals and three assists in 16 games. The biggest change for this line will be the return of Nino Niederreiter to the left side, as he’s been out hurt with a cut Achilles. He should be set to go for the start of the playoffs, and perhaps an even earlier return this week.

Third line with a central leader

The big name on this line is the captain, Adam Lowry centering David Gustafsson and Mason Appleton. Lowry had a big game against the Avs on Saturday, completely overpowering the third line for Colorado with his two goals.

Lowry’s two goals were assisted by Gustafsson in the win as well. Lowry’s 35 points (12G, 23A) in 80 games have been mightily impressive, while Appleton has the exact same stat line with 14 goals and 21 assists. If Nikolaj Ehlers or the aforementioned Niederreiter joins them on the third line, it’ll be even more dangerous than it was before the playoffs began.

Fourth line with a familiar name

Avs fans might recognize the name Vladislav Namestnikov centering the fourth line for the Jets. He did spend half a season in Colorado and was a part of the 2020 bubble playoffs in Edmonton. While he’s bounced around from team to team a lot, he’s found a good home in Winnipeg for the last two seasons, recording a career-high 37 points (11G, 26A) in 77 games this season.

He’s been centering Alex Iafallo, who came to Manitoba as part of the PLD trade in the offseason. He has 26 points in 80 games for the Jets and has been a solid bottom-six forward all season for Winnipeg with a competitive edge, leading to some funny moments.

Who has the edge?

Similar to last season’s playoff series against the Seattle Kraken, the Avs have the advantage of star power and are top-heavy. There is no similar comparison on the Jets to Nathan MacKinnon or Mikko Rantanen. Perhaps a case could be made for a similar comparison to Valeri Nichuhskin or Artturi Lehkonen and Kyle Connor, but there is no superstar for Winnipeg.

Instead, the Jets have an advantage in depth, particularly with scoring. With Namestnikov recording career highs this season, and the likes of Niederreiter, Lowry, and Ehlers playing in the middle six, it matches up well against the Avs’ middle six which has struggled as of late.

It could be a very similar, gritty, tough matchup for Colorado outside of their top line to what we saw in last year’s playoffs. They will have to grind against this Winnipeg group which has surged going into the playoffs. But with MacKinnon on your side, it’s always hard to go against him and his line. As I said in last season’s forwards preview, it’s a 50/50 split between the Avs and Jets forward groups.