MHH Roundtable: Cup or Bust?

In what feels like an eternity, the Colorado Avalanche are finally headed to the postseason. After an uneven finish, the anticipation to see what this team is in the only season that matters. Here are our thoughts heading into that Game 1 meeting with the Winnipeg Jets.

Is this postseason truly “Cup or Bust”, and what does that even mean?

Evan: I said it in a previous episode of the Mile High Hockey Lab podcast before the trade deadline: if the Avs traded a big-name roster player, it would be a signal of all-in. This was exemplified further when Bowen Byram was traded for Casey Mittelstadt. While Mittelstadt has been good, and Sean Walker has filled in well for Byram on the blue line, injuries, and current runs the team is going on is a bit concerning on whether or not it truly is a “Cup or bust” run this season.

Jackie: I don’t really believe in “All-In” or “Cup or Bust” because the window of contention is not closing this summer. Bust actually has to mean something, not just try again next year. Even with the prioritize-the-short-term mantra, nothing is ending except for possibly even more difficulty on the horizon filling out a championship roster but this is not the be-all-end-all. Evaluating the success of this team based on one postseason is short sighted but the organization needs justification for their costly moves. It’s very difficult for even a great team to win a championship so to set that as the only acceptable outcome is a bit unfair. Still, this team has something to prove and I hope they do but it’s not Cup or Bust.

Ezra: I just don’t think Cup or Bust is ever fair given the randomness of hockey and how good the top of the Western Conference is this year, but an early exit would certainly be unacceptable. I do think with the way Nate’s playing, the other guys just have to show up an do their jobs competently and competitively to get the squad to the Western Conference Finals, so anything short of that would be a disappointment.

Adrian: Cup or bust is always the mindset if you ask me, and having generational talent on your team means you gotta get while the gettin’ is good. I know that Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon are already plenty successful. Still, Colorado would do well to maximize their winning potential and continue to go “All-in” until the next era is upon us. ‘Championship or bust’ is pretty much the mantra for all dynasties, no matter the sport. That’s what I want for this Avalanche franchise. Three to four cups in five years. Starts with winning two in three years.

Will this be the year Nathan MacKinnon wins the Hart Trophy?

Evan: Yes, and if he doesn’t then I don’t even know what to say. Next question.

Ezra: It better be. If not now, when?

Jackie: Nate should win but as always politics, biases and national narratives will play a big part. It helps that the common sentiment is that he’s due for a Hart Trophy and his immediate competition has already won before. A bigger focus should be on what MacKinnon has done relative to his peers at 5v5. With 78 points he has a whopping 12 points more than Nikita Kucherov’s 66. Auston Matthews only has two more goals at 5v5 with 38 to MacK’s 36. There should be no question who has had the most impressive season as a whole among a special group of candidates so I’ll hedge my bets to yes.

Adrian: I sure hope so because I promised to let my wife shave my head live on the Mile High Hockey Lab if he doesn’t. Although I’m sure you all would love to see me get punished for my bullish tendencies, I think MacKinnon has done more than enough to earn himself the first-place votes that he will need to be named the NHL’s MVP finally.

What’s the level of concern in net as playoffs begin?

Evan: If you’d asked me two months ago, I would’ve said I’m not too concerned. Now, I am more concerned than ever about netminding. Alexandar Georgiev has been streaky, and inconsistent in the second half of the season. But perhaps more importantly, his emotions are getting the best of him. There have been several incidents when Georgiev has had a meltdown of sorts, throwing him off his play and ending up getting him pulled for a couple of games. As a soccer goalie personally, I understand the emotion and pain to an extent when you get scored on consistently - hence why I almost always back up the goaltender. On the field, the opponent has to get through 10 players before beating you. On the ice, the opponent has to beat five players before getting through Georgiev. Everybody as a whole can be better on defense, but you also want your netminder to make a save to bail your team out from time to time, which has happened less and less down the stretch.

Ezra: High. Georgiev doesn’t need to be a world-beater for this team to win, but he cannot be the version of himself that lacks confidence and composure. The Edmonton debacle was an all-too-vivid example of how bad things can get, and he didn’t bounce back strong enough in Dallas to make me think that was just a flukey freak show. I do like Annunen’s game a lot, but he’s too inexperienced not to be worried about if he’s pressed into action.

Adrian: I’m not as concerned as most right now. I know in an ideal world, the Avalanche would be streaking into the first round, but that’s not always how it goes. I agree that this last month of hockey has been relatively brutal, and the netminding situation is definitely on my radar. That said, every year that the Avalanche are hot heading into the tourney, there has been a bit of a letdown. Also, there are far too many windows of success and stellar performances to call on to write this team off for having a less-than-great March/April. The stylistic changes of the playoffs will suit some of Colorado’s weaknesses, in my opinion, and specific players (e.i. Josh Manson & Alexandar Georgiev) will benefit heavily from the tighter checking and limited ice style that comes with the NHL Playoffs.

Jackie: The Avalanche are keen to ride their starter and their season will live and die on the back of Georgiev. I think he, along with the rest of the team in front of him, will play better when the lights turn on but there’s no room for error. Despite not replacing Justus Annunen at the trade deadline I still don’t see the organization believing in him enough to win a playoff series so he’s not going to see the net a lot regardless. There certainly is some concern but there’s a lot riding on Georgiev regardless.

What challenges do the Winnipeg Jets possess and what’s your series prediction?

Evan: Winnipeg brings a significant challenge to the Avs. They’ve won the season series 3-0 in pretty convincing fashion with their victories. When these two played twice in December, Colorado was a very different team compared to now. Hence, the loss last Saturday against them brings the nerves up even more. But, comparing these two teams side-by-side alongside Winnipeg’s fall from the top of the Central Divison to end the season, I like the Avs’ chances. Connor Hellebuyck will be hard to beat, but I think Colorado finally defeats their Game 7 demons in a series win.

Ezra: Winnipeg is obviously very strong in net, and they have dangerous weapons up front in Kyle Connor, Nik Ehlers, and Mark Scheifele - but I’m not scared of their defense at all, so overall I’m confident in the Avs chances regardless of the season series. We just saw what Nathan MacKinnon can do to slower defenders as he waltzed through the Wild en route to a hattrick and 50 goals on the season, and while Josh Morrissey is high end the rest of that group isn’t much fleeter of foot than Jacob Middleton.

Jackie: After seeing them up close and personal the other day I can saw the Winnipeg Jets are a very good team. They are big, fast and have a deep forward group, plus they play a structured team game. Gabe Vilardi has quietly made a big impact for the Jets and I like how they’ve inserted 21-year old Cole Perfetti and the youthful energy he brings plus the great returns they are getting out of trade deadline pick-up Sean Monahan. Winnipeg may not possess a superstar up front but their rockstar no doubt is Vezina trophy winning goaltender Connor Hellebuyck who is having another fantastic season. The Avalanche will need to score to get out of this round and that means the power play has to get clicking because relying on beating the Jets at 5v5 might not be a great strategy and Winnipeg’s special teams are not fantastic. I’ll say the Avalanche get over the hump and win in six.

Adrian: This might come off as reductive and silly, but to me, it’s pretty straightforward against the Jets. The Avalanche have to beat Hellebuyck more than Georgiev gets beaten. Each team will score hard-earned goals, but it will be how shooting talent fairs against netminding. If Colorado can get through Hellebuyck by picking corners, they will be in good shape. If Georgiev and company can limit soft goals and self-inflicted errors, the rest should take care of itself. Beating excellent goaltending with exemplary shooting while limiting high-danger chances and unforced errors on the other end. Keys to success. Avs in six.