2024 NFL Mock Draft: B/R Scouting Dept.'s Way-Too-Early Picks vs. Latest Projections

After every NFL draft, we can't help ourselves and release a way-too-early mock draft for the following year.

It's a fun experiment even if we know a lot will change over the course of the next 12 months.

With Day 1 of the 2024 draft upon us, we figured it would be interesting to look back on last year's exercise from the beginning of May 2023 and compare those predictions to our final mock draft for this year.

Let's jump in.

Then: QB Caleb Williams to Arizona

Now: QB Caleb Williams to Chicago

No shock here. Caleb Williams has been the consensus No. 1 pick in this draft for about 18 months now, which is remarkable in this day and age.

A year ago, our crew even had him going to a Cardinals team that already had Kyler Murray on the roster.

It makes you wonder what Arizona would be considering if it had wound up with this pick instead of the No. 4 overall selection.

Then: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. to Arizona

Now: QB Jayden Daniels to Washington

It's not as though Marvin Harrison Jr.'s stock fell as he put up a second consecutive 14-touchdown season as a senior at Ohio State in 2023, but quarterbacks are doing their thing and rising up draft boards.

Jayden Daniels didn't stand out enough at LSU in 2022 to make our early mock last May, but he's now slotted at No. 2 for the Commanders after throwing 40 touchdown passes against just four interceptions in the SEC last season.

Then: QB Drake Maye to Tampa Bay

Now: QB Drake Maye to New England

We're two for three.

Long viewed as the No. 2 quarterback in this class, Drake Maye has fallen into a quarterback stew containing Daniels, J.J. McCarthy and even a bit of Bo Nix.

For what it's worth, the North Carolina product remains the top quarterback on our 2024 big board, despite a somewhat disappointing 2023 season (at least compared to his epic 2022 campaign).

Then: OT Joe Alt to Indianapolis

Now: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. to Arizona

Joe Alt is the No. 5 player on our big board and Harrison has been a consensus top-five selection throughout the year, so there's nothing out of the ordinary here.

Would the Colts take Harrison in this spot? It's likely, as they could use a weapon like that for young quarterback Anthony Richardson.

Regardless, there's still a world in which Harrison goes off the board in the top three and Alt winds up as the No. 4 overall selection. It's just quite unlikely at this point.

Then: QB Quinn Ewers to Washington

Now: WR Malik Nabers to Los Angeles

Quinn Ewers has decided to remain at Texas for another season, so you can't fault us too much for that one. That said, I don't think he showed enough progress in 2023 to be considered a top-five pick at the moment. Next season will be huge for him.

Admittedly, we didn't see Malik Nabers coming back a year ago. He scored just three touchdowns at LSU in 2022, but that number shot up to 14 in his senior year. Now he's ranked eighth on our big board.

Then: OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu to Green Bay

Now: WR Rome Odunze to New York

Olumuyiwa Fashanu remains a first-round pick in our books, but we do have him sliding compared to a year ago.

Meanwhile, Rome Odunze didn't make our early mock after a seven-touchdown sophomore season at Washington. That total almost doubled as he lit up the Pac-12 in 2023, and he's now ranked sixth on our big board.

Then: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry to Las Vegas

Now: OT Joe Alt to Tennessee

Kool-Aid McKinstry also remains in Round 1, but only just. A couple of cornerbacks have climbed ahead of him on most mock drafts, and that's also the case with our big board.

As mentioned, Alt has been a top-10 staple for a while. He was a first-team All-American in both 2022 and 2023 at Notre Dame.

There's actually a decent chance the Raiders consider McKinstry with the No. 13 overall selection.

Then: WR Emeka Egbuka to Tennessee

Now: CB Quinyon Mitchell to Atlanta

Emeka Egbuka decided to stay in school after an ankle injury prevented him from putting on a proper show in 2023. Now, he'll have a chance to make a statement outside of Harrison's shadow at Ohio State next season.

Meanwhile, Quinyon Mitchell wasn't part of the early mock but is now our highest-rated cornerback. His stock has been rising steadily throughout the pre-draft process.

Then: TE Brock Bowers to Los Angeles

Now: DT Byron Murphy II to Chicago

Things have been quite consistent with Brock Bowers, who we now have going 10th overall to the Jets. The three-year standout at Georgia has hung around the top 10 for much of the last year and is the consensus No. 1 tight end.

Byron Murphy II wasn't on our radar back then because he didn't explode in college before putting up five sacks and eight tackles for loss as an interior defender at Texas in 2023.

Either player would make a lot of sense for Chicago here.

Then: Edge Jared Verse to Chicago

Now: TE Brock Bowers to New York Jets

Ditto here for the Jets, who would still be getting decent value with someone like Jared Verse (we have him going to Seattle at No. 16 as the top defender on our board) but seem extremely likely to go offense.

Bowers is a popular mock selection for Gang Green.

Then: OT JC Latham to Chicago

Now: QB J.J. McCarthy to Minnesota

JC Latham continues to linger as a borderline top-10 pick among the top tier of offensive tackles, but the quarterback rush has taken over and McCarthy has jumped from the lower reaches of Round 1 a year ago (we had him going 25th to Green Bay) to a potential top-10 selection now.

It would be surprising if McCarthy slid past Minnesota, Denver and Las Vegas at 11, 12 and 13, and we have him going to the first of those three quarterback-hungry teams.

Then: LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr. to New England

Now: Edge Dallas Turner to Denver

Jeremiah Trotter Jr. failed to build on a strong 2022 season at Clemson and is now viewed by few analysts, if any, as a first-round pick.

Watch for him to go off the board on Day 2. I'm also not sure that's a positional route the Patriots are likely to prioritize these days. So, that was a miss.

As for Dallas Turner, the May 2023 mock still had him going to the Broncos but in the No. 15 spot. Both cases are a little lower than most, as the SEC Co-Defensive Player of the Year out of Alabama is widely projected to go off the board in the top 10.

Then: QB Michael Penix Jr. to Atlanta

Now: OT JC Latham to Las Vegas

Michael Penix Jr. is enigmatic because you never know if someone might fall in love/feel desperate and take him in the top half of Round 1 (as we projected a year ago), or if he'll fall to Day 2 once the quarterback feast is complete.

That said, the 2023 prediction is logical, especially because the Falcons didn't have Kirk Cousins at the time.

JC Latham also makes plenty of sense now, as it would have when we had him going 11th overall in the early mock. He's clearly become a mid-Round 1 guy.

Then: DL Jer'Zhan Newton to New York

Now: OT Troy Fautanu to New Orleans

You won't find many mock drafts that still have Jer'Zhan Newton going this early, as he wasn't as impactful as a senior as he was in 2022 at Illinois. He can still be found regularly in first-round projections this year, though.

Meanwhile, Troy Fautanu is new on the first-round scene after not making the cut last May. He makes perfect sense for New Orleans and is regularly mocked between 10 and 20.

Then: Edge Dallas Turner to Denver

Now: WR Brian Thomas Jr. to Indianapolis

Turner doesn't typically drop as far as 15th these days, but it's possible based on movement elsewhere. Regardless, it doesn't look like that was too far off a year ago, even if the Broncos now have bigger fish to fry.

Brian Thomas Jr. wasn't part of last year's mock, as he had yet to evolve into a star at LSU. That changed in a 17-touchdown 2023 campaign. Now he's a first-round staple.

Then: QB Bo Nix to Seattle

Now: Edge Jared Verse to Seattle

These days, Nix continues to be heavily mocked in the middle of Round 1, usually to the Broncos. But it's not out of the question for the Seahawks to consider him in this spot.

We had Verse going 10th a year ago. You'll see him as high as eighth but as low as about 26th now. He could become the best defensive player in this class, but he could just as easily never take off at the NFL level.

Then: CB Cooper DeJean to Pittsburgh

Now: CB Terrion Arnold to Jacksonville

We've still got a cornerback here, but we've swapped out Cooper DeJean (still likely a first-round pick but generally viewed as tier 2 at the position now) for Terrion Arnold (consistently mocked in the teens, particularly to the CB-needy Jaguars).

Arnold wasn't really considered first-round material before exploding with five interceptions as a first-team All-American in 2023. Now, he's right there with Quinyon Mitchell at the top of most cornerback rankings.

Then: Edge Laiatu Latu to Minnesota

Now: OT Taliese Fuaga to Cincinnati

We actually still have Laiatu Latu landing in Minnesota, but with the No. 23 pick. Not many mocks have the UCLA standout getting past the Rams at 19, so the range is about right.

Meanwhile, Taliese Fuaga was effective at Oregon State in 2022, but that was his first year as a full-time starter. He didn't make our projection in May 2023, but he then built on that 2022 campaign and is now typically mocked between 10 and 20.

Then: OT Kingsley Suamataia to Houston

Now: OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu to Los Angeles

Kingsley Suamataia is no longer considered a top-20 pick and is now more likely to go off the board in Round 2. He didn't make our new first-round mock and is the sixth-ranked offensive tackle on our big board.

We had Fashanu going at No. 6 last May. You won't see that anymore, but few mocks have him dropping this far.

Then: CB Kalen King to New Orleans

Now: IOL Graham Barton to Pittsburgh

Kalen King was widely seen as a primo prospect a year ago, but he struggled a lot at Penn State in 2023 and his stock kept sinking during the pre-draft process. It now looks like he'll be a middle-round selection.

Graham Barton wasn't part of last May's mock, but he has emerged as a consensus late first-round pick.

Then: IOL Cooper Beebe to Miami

Now: OT Amarius Mims to Miami

I'm kind of surprised Cooper Beebe hasn't continued to receive significant first-round love in mock drafts. He was a strong three-year starter at Kansas State who has improved each season and flashed a ton of versatility.

However, we no longer have him in Round 1, and we now have Miami taking another offensive lineman in Amarius Mims, who wasn't included in our early mock.

The Georgia product is typically a late first-round choice in mocks, but we're a little higher on him.

Then: DB Javon Bullard to Baltimore

Now: OT Tyler Guyton to Philadelphia

The 2023 campaign might have been Javon Bullard's best at Georgia, but nobody sees him as a first-round pick these days. Does he have the size and strength to cut it as an NFL starter? That's a lingering question.

Tyler Guyton wasn't part of our early mock, probably because he wasn't a full-time starter in one spot in 2022 and didn't fully emerge at Oklahoma until 2023. Now he's the fifth-ranked offensive tackle on our big board.

Then: CB Denzel Burke to Los Angeles

Now: Edge Laiatu Latu to Minnesota

Denzel Burke would have been in the first-round conversation had he entered the draft, but he's spending an extra year at Ohio State instead.

Meanwhile, we had Latu going at No. 18 in May, and mocks have him all over the first-round map. But this would be a good value and need pick for Minnesota.

Then: DB Kamren Kinchens to Dallas

Now: WR Xavier Worthy to Dallas

You'll still see Kamren Kinchens sneak into Round 1 occasionally, but he was a first-team All-American in 2022 and not in 2023 despite another season of big plays. He's a wild card.

Xavier Worthy didn't make the cut in our early draft, but he flashed pretty frequently as a senior at Texas and is now a popular mock pick for Kansas City at the bottom of Round 1 following his first 1,000-yard campaign in college.

Then: QB J.J. McCarthy to Green Bay

Now: CB Cooper DeJean to Green Bay

Jordan Love did enough in his first season as a starter for the Packers to no longer be in on McCarthy here, but the Michigan product is unlikely be available here anyway. We now have him going 11th to Minnesota, and most mocks have him going off the board earlier than that.

As mentioned, DeJean's stock has gone in the opposite direction, albeit not too dramatically.

Then: Edge JT Tuimoloau to Detroit

Now: IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson to Tampa Bay

Noticing a pattern of Ohio State standouts staying in school? JT Tuimoloau joins Emeka Egbuka and Denzel Burke on the returnee list for the Buckeyes, even after building on a solid 2022 season in 2023.

Jackson Powers-Johnson wouldn't have been a thought last May, as he didn't become Oregon's starting center until this past season. He finished the year as a unanimous All-American.

Then: DL Maason Smith to Jacksonville

Now: Edge Chop Robinson to Arizona

You won't see Maason Smith in the first round of any mocks these days. Coming off a major knee injury, he still wasn't able to get back to his 2021 form at LSU in 2023. But the potential is there, so who knows.

We also had Chop Robinson going off the board late in Round 1 (31st overall) in the May mock, so this tracks as Arizona's second first-round pick. He wasn't significantly more impactful in 2023 than he was in 2022 at Penn State.

Then: DT Leonard Taylor III to Buffalo

Now: WR Adonai Mitchell to Buffalo

Leonard Taylor II's production dipped quite substantially in 2023 compared to his strong 2022 campaign at Miami (FL), and he now looks like a middle-round pick. So that was a miss.

Adonai Mitchell wasn't part of the early mock after catching nine passes at Georgia in 2022, but he emerged while scoring 11 touchdowns at Texas last year.

Then: WR Johnny Wilson to Philadelphia

Now: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry to Detroit

Johnny Wilson's production sunk across the board in his senior season at Florida State, and he's now considered a Day 2 selection at best.

McKinstry, meanwhile, was a top-10 pick in our May mock. He just isn't as polished as many might have hoped after the 2023 campaign.

Then: S Calen Bullock to Cincinnati

Now: OT Patrick Paul to Baltimore

Calen Bullock is no longer viewed as a potential first-rounder after his playmaking numbers dropped off hugely at USC in 2023, but he'll likely be a Day 2 selection and remains fourth among safeties on our big board.

Patrick Paul was already a well-established potential first-rounder, but he appears to have boosted his stock by spending an extra year at Houston. He's a popular later first-round selection now.

Then: Edge Chop Robinson to San Francisco

Now: WR Xavier Legette to San Francisco

As mentioned, Robinson wasn't significantly more impactful in 2023 than he was in 2022. We have him going just a few spots earlier now.

Meanwhile, Xavier Legette wasn't a first-rounder in the early mock, as he was coming off an 18-catch senior season at South Carolina. But he completely ignited his career with 1,255 yards in his last year of eligibility in 2023. He's now routinely mocked late in Round 1.

Then: OT Zion Nelson to Kansas City

Now: DL Jer'Zhan Newton to Kansas City

Zion Nelson is back at Miami (FL) for one last shot at salvaging something after two barely existent seasons as a result of redshirts/injuries. He's not on a lot of radars right now.

We originally had Newton going in the top half of Round 1, but his performance fell off at Illinois in 2023. He's now likely to go late in the first round or as a Day 2 pick.