Another Year, Another Panic-Filled Quarterback Draft

For the third time in seven years, five or more quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.

For the first time since 1983, six quarterbacks heard their names called on Day 1 of the Draft.

And for the first time in the modern draft’s history, 5 quarterbacks were taken in the first 10 picks.

As the seasons roll on, the most important position in any sport becomes more and more sought after, especially on the affordable price tag of a rookie contract. But at what point is sacrificing a first-round selection on a lottery ticket for a franchise quarterback no longer worth the risk?

While the first three picks of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye were not much of a surprise, Michael Penix Jr. going 8th overall to the Atlanta Falcons was a shock nobody expected this year.

Atlanta was arguably a quarterback away from being a playoff team in 2023, finishing the season with a 7-10 record, good enough for third in the NFC South.

Despite not much draft capital being utilized on the defensive side of the ball in recent years, the Falcons had an 18th-ranked defense compared to their 26th-ranked offense.

The duo of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke were the primary reasons for the team’s inability to score. In short, Ridder posted a 12/12/12 TD/INT/FMB on a 64.2% completion percentage, while Heinicke only had a 54.4% completion percentage in 5 games.

So to mitigate this issue, the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a 4-year, $180 million contract, with $100 million guaranteed.

But one of the most consistent QBs in the NFL was not enough for the Falcons, as they shockingly used their 8th overall pick in the 2024 Draft to select Michael Penix Jr.

While the talent level should not make the move shocking, as Penix combined for 9.544 yards and 67 touchdowns in just two years at Washington. The fact that a soon-to-be 24-year-old quarterback has an injury history and less-than-ideal combine measurements after signing a QB in free agency is where most scratch their head.

Now, this is not to say that Penix will not work out with the Falcons, as I personally believe that Penix is the best quarterback in this year’s draft.

However, this selling out to develop a profitable QB room has become a recurring theme every April in the NFL.

Let's look at the comparison of the 2021 NFL Draft that saw 5 QBs come off the board in the first 15 picks. Despite it only being three years ago, only Trevor Lawrence is still on the original team that drafted him, and even Jacksonville fans would admit he has not completely lived up to expectations yet.

If we travel further back to 2018, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are still leading the team who called their names 6 years back, and Baker Mayfield just earned another contract in Tampa Bay.

However, the drafted team’s success rate is still under 50%.

So, while it is proven that the easiest way to create a winning formula in the NFL is to hit on a first-round QB and build around him, the 2024 Draft could be the start of the decline for several teams reaching the position just to take a flier on an option.

Even after Penix, the Vikings traded up to 10 to select J.J. McCarthy, someone who did not shine nearly as much in the NCAA as the lefty did, and then the Broncos took Bo Nix at 12, a QB who found himself finally rounding to form in his fifth year at the collegiate level.

But, any of these three field generals has a great chance of succeeding, while any of the three first overall selections has a greater chance of not living up to expectations, the stock-rising period of the offseason may come to a close after this year’s draft class does not eclipse a 50% hit rate.