HONS

Kentucky Derby Appeal Denied Horse Racing

The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby

The Washington Post

Weekly Global Sports Photo Gallery

Kentucky Derby Quiz

150th Kentucky Derby

Stringer

149th Kentucky Derby

Staff

Kentucky Derby Betting Tips 2024

Kentucky Derby Previews

Syndication: The Courier-Journal

Kentucky Derby Horse Racing

California Chrome trainer Art Sherman


Photographer

HANDOUT on 5/1/24

Florida Derby Horse Racing

Bush track folo

staff

Belmont At Saratoga Horse Racing

Breeders Cup Horse Racing

Respond to prefers-color-scheme dark in app web views

Follow section front redirects in Spectrum

Enable NLP source in PCS for load testing

Switch off the News Alerts Survey Widget when we have enough responses

Poll to determine if new LUF updates are available

Allows the winning A/B test variant to be turned on without Spectrum deployment

Show infinite scrolling sections in Assembler MultiView

Show option for NLP article summaries in Action Bar

Show NLP summaries collection recirc on article pages

A general feature flag for Recipe Features that aren't yet released

Feature flag for media team features that aren't yet released

Use new Orca video player for preroll plugin in Spectrum

Show the snow tracker (instead of the heat tracker) on Spectrum

As the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/27/kentucky-derby-odds-post-positions/" target=_blank>Kentucky Derby</a> approaches, bettors often wonder how to maximize their chances of scoring a winning ticket. Blind luck isn’t the answer. Grab your racing form and let’s focus on some strategies to increase your success betting on the Run for the Roses.

Stay away from short-priced horses with red flags

The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/27/kentucky-derby-odds-post-positions/" target="_blank">morning-line favorites</a> in the Kentucky Derby rarely offer value. That value diminishes further when the favorites are marred by red flags. These 20 horses are being asked to navigate 1¼ miles for the first time, and to win the race requires a combination of peak effort and the right circumstances.

This year’s morning-line favorite, Fierceness (5-2), has struggled out of the gate at times and has a clear pattern of producing his A game followed by a clunker. Since his latest effort, a win in the Grade I Florida Derby, was sensational, it is not far-fetched to imagine he won’t have his best race this time around.

Sierra Leone, the second choice on the morning line (3-1), drew post No. 2, which <a href="https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/10/Post_Positions__Kentucky_Derby__2024_.pdf" target=_blank>last produced a winner in 1978</a> (Affirmed). The inside post is tough for this race, because horses near the rail have to push hard toward the front to avoid being blocked by a large field with 19 other horses. That often means extra energy must be expended earlier than is desirable. That trend disproportionately affects closers such as Sierra Leone, since they are used to conserving energy for a late kick toward the finish line. We should also discount Sierra Leone’s latest win in the Grade I Blue Grass. He was gifted a fast pace and took advantage, yet he couldn’t do better than par for his final speed figure. I’ll be staying away from both Fierceness and Sierra Leone at the top of my tickets.

Identify which horses will be helped or hindered by Saturday’s expected pace

Pace makes the race, and lately the early pace in the Kentucky Derby has been faster than usual. This means front-runners are less desirable than horses that sit further back off the pace.

To help label horses, analyst Bill Quirin introduced a system based on past performances at the first call, which is the ¼-mile mark in sprints and ½-mile mark in routes, or longer races. The running styles are denoted as front-runners (on the lead), stalkers (one or two lengths off the lead), pressers (more than two lengths off the lead at the first call) and closers (near the back of the pack). In this race, there could be as many as seven front-runners, all needing to secure the lead to ensure their best performance. With this many horses vying to be a part of the first flight, it’s best to discount virtually all of them in favor of the pressers and closers.

Once you have your list of contenders, it is time to ballpark their chances of winning the race. Only then will you know whether your risk is justified by the potential reward. If you think a horse has a 25 percent chance to win but that horse is a 2-1 favorite, then it is not worth the risk. On the other hand, the same horse at 6-1 odds would offer a terrific wagering opportunity.

Don’t think you are savvy enough to estimate a horse’s chances of winning a race? Use <a href="http://markcramercx.blogspot.com/2004_08_04_archive.html" target=_blank>Marc Cramer’s contender line</a> as your guide. He proposed ranking horses and assigning prefixed probabilities to them. If you think only one horse is a true contender then you must demand even money or better to make a wager. Have two horses you like? Your top pick must be 2-1 or better and your second choice 5-2 or better. Three contenders in the field would require at least 3-1 on your top choice, 9-2 on the second choice and 6-1 on the third choice.

My top contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/05/03/kentucky-derby-pick-win-2024-honor-marie/" target=_blank>No. 7 Honor Marie</a> followed by No. 4 Catching Freedom, No. 1 Dornoch and No. 8 Just A Touch. Since those are four contenders, they would require odds of 4-1, 5-1, 8-1 and 9-1, respectively, for me to place a win wager on Saturday. Bet any contenders that reach the proper threshold.

Consider different bets — including exotics

The staple of any horse bettor is the win wager, but for special events such as the Triple Crown, it is worth exploring exotic wagers such as trifectas (in which you must correctly select the first three finishers in order) and superfectas (in which you correctly select the first four runners in order) because the payouts are sometimes enormous.

A streamlined approach is always best, and you should avoid playing too many combinations. One of my favorite strategies to play the trifecta is to key a horse (it should not be a short-priced entry) in each spot — win, place and show — with three other contenders, which we will label A, B and C. You would win if your “key” horse finishes anywhere in the top three, along with two of your other three contenders. The three tickets look like this and cost $3 each if the minimum trifecta ticket is 5o cents.

Don’t have a key horse? You could use two of your top contenders at the front with some other possibilities in the place and show spots such as A,B with A,B,C with A,B,C,D,E. A ticket like this would also cost $6 if the trifecta carries a minimum of 50 cents.

The minimum for superfecta tickets on Kentucky Derby day is $1, so the combinations can get expensive quickly. If you have a limited bankroll you must find a horse or two you are comfortable singling to keep the costs from escalating. Mike Hogan of the Daily Racing Form highlighted a few <a href="https://www.drf.com/news/closer-look-superfecta-strategies" target=_blank>superfecta strategies</a> I use often, with one called the “triangle” ticket that could work for limited budgets. You key your main horse with three other contenders on one ticket and expand the number of possibilities for the fourth spot on another ticket, giving you a chance to hit the superfecta twice. It looks like this:

A with B,C,D with B,C,D with B,C,D for $6

A with B,C with B,C,D with B,C,D,E,F for $12

Here’s how I would structure <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/05/02/kentucky-derby-2024-trifecta-superfecta-picks-bets/" target=_blank>my trifecta and superfecta tickets</a> in this year’s race.

I would use No. 7 Honor Marie and No. 4 Catching Freedom at the front with No. 1 Dornoch, No. 2 Sierra Leone, No. 3 Mystik Dan and No. 8 Just A Touch in the place and show spots.

If your bankroll permits, I would expand the superfecta’s final slot to include the two horses from Japan — No. 10 T O Password and No. 11 Forever Young — plus No. 14 Endlessly, No. 15 Domestic Product and No. 16 Grand Mo The First.

Neil Greenberg is a staff writer with The Washington Post whose beat is sports analytics. His analysis and insight can be found in the sports section, where he covers the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB as well as college football and basketball.

Neil Greenberg

washpost

Kentucky Derby betting tips to maximize your success

the-washington-post

Illustration by David D. Robbins Jr./The Washington Post; IStock; Andy Lyons/Getty Images

name

prism://prism.query/site,/sports/horse-racing&limit=20

Horse Racing

Washington Post coverage of horse racing, including columns by Andrew Beyer.

prism://prism.query/site-articles-only,/sports&limit=20

Sports

The Washington Post Sports section provides sports news, video, scores, analysis and updates about high school, college, and pro sports teams, including the Capitals, Nationals, Washington Football Team, United and Wizards. Post Sports also offers blogs and discussions about the latest sports news.

Four tips to maximize your Kentucky Derby betting success

Stay away from short-priced horses with red flags