Patience or Panic on All 30 MLB Teams' Most Notable Early 2024 Slump

Beware the small sample size.

Everything is magnified when a player struggles for the first few weeks of a new MLB season. It's hard to look up at the scoreboard and see a sub-.200 batting average or an ERA that looks more like a phone number, but those early trends can shift dramatically.

A similar slump in August can go largely unnoticed, especially at a national level, but if a high-profile player struggles out of the gates it tends to grab headlines.

With all of that in mind, what follows is a dive into each MLB team's most notable early slump and a ruling on whether it is a reason to panic or simply requires some patience. Advanced metrics, past track record and recent performance in the past week all played a role in deciding which category each player fell into as the calendar flipped to May.

Baltimore Orioles: CF Cedric Mullins

Stats: 110 PA, .212/.273/.414, 8 XBH (6 HR), 17 RBI, 23 K

With a 99 OPS+ and 0.7 WAR through 31 games thanks in part to his solid defensive work in center field, Mullins has not been a total flop in the early going. That said, his .212 average and .273 on-base percentage has left him far from being the table-setter the Orioles have grown accustomed to the last few seasons. With batted-ball metrics that are right in line with his career averages, including a 41.6 percent hard-hit rate that represents a career-high, he should be just fine.

Patience or Panic: Patience

Boston Red Sox: IF/OF Ceddanne Rafaela

Stats: 118 PA, .191/.220/.345, 11 XBH (2 HR), 17 RBI, 31 K

Rafaela forced his way onto the Opening Day roster with a strong spring, and he entered 2024 with little left to prove in the minors after batting .302/.349/.520 with 31 doubles, 20 home runs and 79 RBI in 108 games between Double-A and Triple-A last year. His defensive versatility has been useful, but the offensive production simply has not been there. With an average exit velocity that ranks near the bottom of the league and a middling 3.5 percent walk rate, he simply looks overmatched at the plate.

Patience or Panic: Panic

New York Yankees: 2B Gleyber Torres

Stats: 140 PA, .218/.295/.274, 5 XBH (1 HR), 7 RBI, 34 K

Torres finally hit his first home run of the season on Thursday in Baltimore, and things have been trending in the right direction of late with four multi-hit performances and a .294/.314/.441 line over his last eight games. The two-time All-Star is a notoriously slow starter with a .687 OPS in March and April during his career.

Patience or Panic: Patience

Tampa Bay Rays: OF Randy Arozarena

Stats: 127 PA, .139/.220/.235, 5 XBH (3 HR), 9 RBI, 37 K

The Rays have multiple candidates for this list, but let's focus on Arozarena who turned in his third straight 20/20 season and was an All-Star Game starter in 2023. The 29-year-old has seen his batted-ball numbers dip across the board, including a fall from 48.3 to 34.6 percent in hard-hit rate. Equally troubling is a career-high 29.1 percent strikeout rate as he seems to be pressing amid the slow start. It's tough to find reason for optimism in his early performance.

Patience or Panic: Panic

Toronto Blue Jays: SS Bo Bichette

Stats: 122 PA, .205/.262/.295, 7 XBH (1 HR), 11 RBI, 18 K

Bichette has seen his expected batting average plummet from .312 last season to .221 this year, and that has come as he is putting the ball in play at a career-high rate with a strikeout rate of just 14.8 percent. The most telling stat might be his barrel rate falling from 9.6 to 2.1 percent, as he is simply not squaring up the baseball. With no real change in his approach at the plate, he could be one minor mechanical tweak away from getting right.

Patience or Panic: Patience

Chicago White Sox: SP Mike Soroka

Stats: 7 GS, 0-3, 6.48 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 19 BB, 16 K, 33.1 IP

The White Sox season is quickly shaping up to be a dumpster fire, so there is no shortage of candidates for this list. Soroka looked like one of the more intriguing buy-low candidates on the offseason market before he was acquired from the Atlanta Braves, but it might not be long before he is designated for assignment. The 26-year-old former All-Star has failed to complete five innings in four of his seven starts, and while he was never a high strikeout rate guy, having more walks (19) than strikeouts (16) is alarming.

Patience or Panic: Panic

Cleveland Guardians: C Bo Naylor

Stats: 85 PA, .176/.282/.270, 3 XBH (2 HR), 5 RBI, 32 K

Naylor looked like a rising star for the Guardians last season, posting a 123 OPS+ with 13 doubles, 11 home runs and 32 RBI in only 230 plate appearances. The 24-year-old actually has solid batted-ball numbers, including a 46.2 percent hard-hit rate that ranks in the 75th percentile. However, his 38.3 percent strikeout rate is untenable and could ultimately lead to a demotion to get back on track.

Patience or Panic: Panic

Detroit Tigers: 2B Colt Keith

Stats: 102 PA, .160/.225/.181, 2 XBH (0 HR), 6 RBI, 18 K

The Tigers signed Keith to a six-year, $28.6 million extension during the offseason and effectively cleared a path for him to break camp as the starting second baseman, but he has not looked ready for the big leagues. The 22-year-old hit .306/.380/.552 with 38 doubles, 27 home runs and 101 RBI in 126 games in the upper levels of the minors last year, but that ability to impact the baseball has been nowhere to be found in 2024. Mired in a 4-for-48 slump, it might be time to send him down.

Patience or Panic: Panic

Kansas City Royals: OF Hunter Renfroe

Stats: 88 PA, .148/.216/.259, 5 XBH (2 HR), 10 RBI, 18 K

With a strong track record of offensive production that includes a 106 OPS+ for his career and averages of 31 doubles, 33 home runs and 87 RBI per 162 games, Renfroe looked like a shrewd pickup for the Royals on a two-year, $13 million deal. He does have a track record of starting slow with a .216 average and .697 OPS in 598 career plate appearances before May 1, so patience is still the answer for now.

Patience or Panic: Patience

Minnesota Twins: SP Chris Paddack

Stats: 5 GS, 2-1, 5.88 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 6 BB, 21 K, 26.0 IP

With Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda departing in free agency and no major outside additions made to the starting staff, the Twins entered the season counting on a healthy Paddack to hold down a rotation spot. Opponents are hitting .336/.372/.496 with five home runs against him over his first five starts, and his numbers would look even worse if not for a terrific outing against the White Sox (7.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 10 K) on April 22.

Patience or Panic: Panic

Houston Astros: 3B Alex Bregman

Stats: 122 PA, .200/.270/.273, 6 XBH (1 HR), 10 RBI, 16 K

With the red flag officially waved on José Abreu who was demoted to the minors earlier this week, Bregman gets the nod for the Astros. The free-agent-to-be currently has career-low marks in hard-hit rate (33.0 percent, 24th percentile), average exit velocity (87.2 mph, 25th percentile) and expected batting average (.215, 16th percentile), and it's fair to wonder if his uncertain future has become a distraction. His career .737 OPS over the season's first month is more than 100 points off his overall mark, so a slow start is nothing new.

Patience or Panic: Patience

Los Angeles Angels: IF Brandon Drury

Stats: 94 PA, .176/.245/.235, 3 XBH (1 HR), 5 RBI, 18 K

Drury ranked among the team leaders in home runs (26, second), RBI (83, second) and WAR (1.9, sixth) last season, so his slow start has been a major blow to the offense. In the second season of a two-year, $17 million deal, he also looked like an obvious trade candidate if the Angels fell out of contention early. On a positive note, his .253 expected batting average is a good indication he has dealt with some bad luck.

Patience or Panic: Patience

Oakland Athletics: 2B Zack Gelof

Stats: 101 PA, .196/.260/.337, 6 XBH (3 HR), 7 RBI, 33 K

Gelof posted a 135 OPS+ with 35 extra-base hits and a team-leading 2.6 WAR in 69 games last season after making his MLB debut on July 14, and he looked like an obvious building block for the Athletics heading into the season. His early performance represented a major step backward before he landed on the injured list with an oblique strain, and that could prove to be a blessing in disguise as it will give him an opportunity to reset.

Patience or Panic: Patience

Seattle Mariners: DH Mitch Garver

Stats: 98 PA, .143/.255/.298, 7 XBH (3 HR), 7 RBI, 31 K

The Mariners inked Garver to a two-year, $24 million deal during the offseason in an effort to add some much-needed power to the middle of the lineup. He posted a 135 OPS+ with 19 home runs and 50 RBI in 344 plate appearances last season with the World Series champion Rangers, and he hit cleanup on Opening Day. His .160 expected batting average ranks 270th among 274 qualified hitters and leaves little room for optimism.

Patience or Panic: Panic

Texas Rangers: SS Corey Seager

Stats: 128 PA, .219/.305/.289 4 XBH (2 HR), 8 RBI, 22 K

While he has not matched the ridiculous 53.2 percent hard-hit rate and 93.3 mph average exit velocity he logged last season, Seager still has respectable batted-ball metrics as he tries to get into the swing of the 2024 season. The 30-year-old is one of the best pure hitters in baseball and is still in the prime of his career, so there's no reason to think he won't get on track as the weather heats up.

Patience or Panic: Patience

Atlanta Braves: OF Ronald Acuña Jr.

Stats: 136 PA, .252/.368/.322, 6 XBH (1 HR), 7 RBI, 38 K

Thanks to his speed and on-base ability, Acuña has scored an NL-leading 29 runs while reaching base 50 times in 29 games, but lack of power production still earns him a place on this list. After slugging 41 home runs and hitting .337/.416/.596 for a 169 OPS+ last season, he has set the bar extremely high, and he still has elite-level batted-ball metrics even with a step down from last year. A dip in barrel rate (15.3 to 7.8 percent) is the most likely explanation for his lack of over-the-fence production, and it might just mean a small tweak.

Patience or Panic: Patience

Miami Marlins: SS Tim Anderson

Stats: 105 PA, .222/.267/.253, 3 XBH (0 HR), 5 RBI, 34 K

An AL All-Star as recently as 2022, Anderson was one of baseball's worst offensive players last year, posting a 61 OPS+ with just 21 extra-base hits in 524 plate appearances. The White Sox declined their club option on him and the Marlins took a buy-low flier with a one-year, $5 million deal, but he has been even worse this season with a 49 OPS+ and a 32.4 percent strikeout rate that is well above his 23.4 percent career mark. He might not make it through the entire season without getting released.

Patience or Panic: Panic

New York Mets: SS Francisco Lindor

Stats: 136 PA, .207/.287/.380, 11 XBH (5 HR), 15 RBI, 22 K

Lindor has spent the past several weeks working to dig out the statistical hole he dug himself with a 1-for-31 start at the plate, and over his last eight games he is batting .310/.355/.724 with three doubles, three home runs and nine RBI in 31 plate appearances. The numbers might look bad at surface level, but he has already gotten things back on track.

Patience or Panic: Patience

Philadelphia Phillies: OF Nick Castellanos

Stats: 128 PA, .186/.250/.254, 3 XBH (2 HR), 9 RBI, 32 K

After a rocky first season in Philadelphia, Castellanos rebounded nicely last season when he posted a 111 OPS+ with 37 doubles, 29 home runs and 106 RBI while earning the second All-Star selection of his career. The 32-year-old has stumbled out of the gates this season, and his .201 expected batting average and .306 expected slugging percentage provide little optimism for positive regression. He went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts on Wednesday, and things could be reaching a breaking point.

Patience or Panic: Panic

Washington Nationals: C Keibert Ruiz

Stats: 54 PA, .143/.222/.265, 2 XBH (2 HR), 4 RBI, 8 K

Ruiz was a popular breakout pick heading into the season after he hit .300/.342/.467 with 22 extra-base hits in 257 plate appearances after the All-Star break last year. His slow start can be attributed to the aftermath of a 13-game absence with influenza during which time he lost almost 20 pounds, and he is still working to build his strength back up.

Patience or Panic: Patience

Chicago Cubs: RHP Kyle Hendricks

Stats: 5 GS, 0-3, 12.00 ERA, 2.10 WHIP, 7 BB, 16 K, 21.0 IP

Hendricks essentially spent his first five starts of the season pitching batting practice, serving up a .378/.425/.694 line and eight home runs to opposing hitters. The 34-year-old has been on the injured list since April 21 with a lower back strain, and his lack of overpowering stuff does not afford him much wiggle room if he is not locating his pitches with pinpoint command. It's worth waiting to see if he returns to form on the other side of this injury, but if he continues to struggle like he did early on it might be the end of the road.

Patience or Panic: Patience

Cincinnati Reds: 1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Stats: 108 PA, .196/.222/.314, 8 XBH (2 HR), 16 RBI, 31 K

Encarnacion-Strand was one of several exciting young players to arrive in the big leagues for the Reds last season, and he posted a 113 OPS+ with 13 home runs and 37 RBI in 241 plate appearances while showcasing legitimate 30-homer potential. He is hitting .158 with a .263 slugging percentage against fastballs in the early going, and that will need to improve dramatically for him to right the ship, as will his 31-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He might benefit from a quick return trip to the minors to sort things out.

Patience or Panic: Panic

Milwaukee Brewers: LHP DL Hall

Stats: 4 GS, 0-1, 7.71 ERA, 2.27 WHIP, 10 BB, 13 K, 16.1 IP

Despite a slow start, Jackson Chourio is more than holding his own as a 20-year-old in the big leagues, so instead let's focus on Hall who was one of the centerpieces of the Corbin Burnes blockbuster. He is currently sidelined with a sprained left knee, but his struggles prior to that injury raise questions about his long-term potential as a starting rotation candidate. The 25-year-old faced questions of whether he had the command to start throughout his time in the minors, and those concerns have only been amplified.

Patience or Panic: Panic

Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP David Bednar

Stats: 13 G, 5/8 SV, 11.45 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 4 BB, 16 K, 11.0 IP

Bedard was one of baseball's best closers last year when he converted 39 of 42 save opportunities with a 2.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 10.7 K/9 in 66 appearances. The 29-year-old matched his blown saves total from last year by April 12 this season, but he has converted his last four chances. There is nothing in his pitch data to suggest his stuff has taken a step backward, so it could just be an ill-timed rough patch.

Patience or Panic: Patience

St. Louis Cardinals: LHP Steven Matz

Stats: 6 GS, 1-2, 6.18 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 11 BB, 17 K, 27.2 IP

The lackluster offensive performance of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado is certainly cause for concern, but also not overly surprising given their age. The biggest early slump for the Cardinals belongs to Matz, who is in the third season of a four-year, $44 million deal and looking like he could struggle to hold down a rotation spot for much longer. Opponents are hitting .327/.394/.478 against him and his whiff rate on his sinker has cratered from 24.7 to 12.1 percent.

Patience or Panic: Panic

Arizona Diamondbacks: OF Corbin Carroll

Stats: 134 PA, .197/.299/.248, 4 XBH (1 HR), 5 RBI, 22 K

Sophomore slump? After one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory, Carroll has been slow out of the gates this year, and the precipitous decline in his hard-hit rate (28.4%, 9th percentile) and average exit velocity (84.6 mph, 6th percentile) is alarming. The 23-year-old has a strong track record as a pure hitter, and he is working on a modest three-game hitting streak, so perhaps things are starting to turn around.

Patience or Panic: Patience

Colorado Rockies: OF Nolan Jones

Stats: 103 PA, .170/.243/.277, 7 XBH (1 HR), 7 RBI, 37 K

Jones posted a 140 OPS+ with 22 doubles, 20 home runs, 62 RBI and 20 steals while racking up a team-high 4.3 WAR in 106 games as one of the most impressive rookies of the 2023 season. His .401 BABIP last year raised some serious regression red flags, and those have seemingly come to fruition while his strikeout rate has also climbed from 29.7 to 35.9 percent. The 25-year-old is now sidelined with a lower back strain.

Patience or Panic: Panic

Los Angeles Dodgers: IF/OF Chris Taylor

Stats: 63 PA, .078/.226/.078, 0 XBH (0 HR), 5 RBI, 24 K

One of baseball's most versatile utility players, Taylor has quietly racked up 16.6 WAR over 11 seasons in the majors, but his offensive game has been non-existent this season. His .143 expected batting average and 20.7 percent hard-hit rate are both among the worst in baseball, and his strikeout rate has spiked to a career-high 38.1 percent. In the third season of a four-year, $60 million deal, he might have a tough time living up to his salary the rest of the way.

Patience or Panic: Panic

San Diego Padres: RHP Joe Musgrove

Stats: 8 GS, 3-3, 6.37 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 13 BB, 36 K, 41.0 IP

Musgrove leads the NL in hits allowed (49), earned runs allowed (29) and home runs allowed (10), and his 6.37 ERA is backed by an equally alarming 5.94 FIP through his first eight starts. On a positive note, he has turned in three quality starts in his last four outings, including six innings of four-hit, two-run ball against the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday, so things are trending in the right direction.

Patience or Panic: Patience

San Francisco Giants: 3B Matt Chapman

Stats: 132 PA, .226/.273/.379, 11 XBH (4 HR), 14 RBI, 33 K

A middling batting average and plenty of strikeouts is par for the course with Chapman, but his walk rate has dropped from 10.7 to 5.3 percent and that has taken a further bite out of his offensive value. The 31-year-old still has strong batted-ball metrics and has been worth 0.8 WAR through 32 games thanks in part to his defense, so there is no reason to panic just yet.

Patience or Panic: Patience