Taiwan swears in new president, stands up to Chinese aggression

Lai called on Beijing, which claims the island as territory even though the Chinese Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan, to “cease political and military intimidation of Taiwan” and engage in dialogue.

“I hope China can face up to the reality of the existence of the Republic of China,” Lai said in his inauguration speech Monday, referring to Taiwan by its official name, shortly after he was officially sworn in.

In remarks that largely echoed Tsai, Lai described his approach to relations with Beijing as being “neither servile or overbearing” in trying to maintain the peace. There should be no “illusions” that Beijing would drop its desire to take control of Taiwan if Taiwan stopped claiming sovereignty, he added.

His speech following an upbeat ceremony featured Taiwanese dancers, rappers, singers and even people performing in soup dumpling costumes.

Taiwan’s defense forces were monitoring for an increase in Chinese military activity Monday in case Beijing embarked on more saber rattling, and the coast guard was patrolling outlying islands including Kinmen, which sits only four miles from China’s coast. Taiwan’s defense ministry said Chinese military activity in nearby waters and skies remained at “normal” levels as of 8:50 a.m. local time Monday.

China has ramped up its military aggression around the island over the past two years, especially during politically sensitive times, in an apparent effort to intimidate the Taiwanese people and exhaust their military.

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office on Monday called Lai a “worker for Taiwan independence" and said he was sending “dangerous signals” that were damaging to cross-strait relations.

Lai, once a scrappy advocate for Taiwanese independence, has since tempered his views and is now a key proponent of the DPP’s efforts to maintain peace with Beijing while repelling its aggression. He has said he is open to talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping but only as equals, which is unacceptable to Xi.

The Chinese Communist Party asserts sovereignty over the self-governing island of 23 million people and considers it a breakaway state that it is willing to seize by force if necessary. Xi has repeatedly said that “reunification” is “inevitable,” even though Taiwan has never been ruled by the CCP.

Because the United States does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, the Biden administration, keeping with the practice of previous administrations, sent a bipartisan delegation of former U.S. government officials to Lai’s inauguration.

The United States has maintained formal relations with China since 1979, under a one-China policy that acknowledges Beijing’s claims over Taiwan without endorsing them. But it also has less formal ties with Taiwan, operating the American Institute in Taiwan — an embassy in all but name — and selling arms to Taiwan to help it defend itself.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday congratulated Lai and praised Tsai for strengthening U.S.-Taiwan relations.

“We look forward to working with President Lai and across Taiwan’s political spectrum to advance our shared interests and values, deepen our long-standing unofficial relationship, and maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” Blinken said in a statement.

But Danny Russel, the top U.S. diplomat for East Asia under President Barack Obama, said Lai’s attempt at continuity is “certain to fall flat with Beijing.” Beijing sees that continuation as an “unacceptable drift towards Taiwan independence and away from unification,” said Russel, now vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank.

Tsai’s pioneering presidency

Although the DPP narrowly lost its majority in parliament in the election in January, Lai’s victory underscores the dramatic transformation that has taken place in Taiwan during the eight years of Tsai’s presidency.

Taiwan’s sense of its own identity has increased over the past eight years under Tsai. “Taiwanese people have also gained a very high level of confidence,” said Lai I-chung, president of the Prospect Foundation think tank in Taipei and no relation to the new president.

The Taiwanese commitment to self-determination grew stronger with China’s suppression of pro-democracy movements in Hong Kong in 2019 and its subsequent efforts to stamp out civil society and free speech. A widely cited survey conducted by National Chengchi University since 1992 shows the number of Taiwanese who identify as solely Chinese — as opposed to Taiwanese, or both — has plummeted from 25 percent then to 2 percent now.

Even the main opposition party, the more China-friendly Kuomintang, has had to temper its embrace of Beijing, pledging during the presidential campaign to boost the defense budget.

Tsai, known for her soft-spoken and bookish demeanor, became Taiwan’s first female president in 2016 and has led the island to become one of the most progressive places in the region, especially for LGBTQ+ rights. During the pandemic, Taiwan emerged as one of few places in the world that successfully controlled the spread of the virus through a variety of countermeasures, raising Tsai’s profile around the world as the “covid crusher.”

She spearheaded several defense reforms, including extending military service for Taiwanese men from four months to one year, and launched Taiwan’s first domestically produced submarine. She also enhanced Taiwan’s reputation in the world by strengthening ties with the United States and other friendly democracies.

“She was by no means a perfect president, but she did so much for Taiwan internationally that no one ever thought possible,” said Lev Nachman, political scientist at the National Chengchi University. “I really think her foreign policy is going to be remembered by just how much she has done to create more allies for Taiwan in spaces we did not know existed before, like in Eastern Europe.”

At the same time, however, the number of countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan has plummeted as China has steadily picked them off one by one, including by cutting trade and aid deals with them. Now only 11 countries and the Vatican recognize Taiwan — 10 fewer countries than when Tsai took office.

A month after Donald Trump was elected president in 2016, he spoke with Tsai by phone — a first between the leaders of the United States and Taiwan since 1979 — breaching decades-long U.S. protocol and heralding the Trump administration’s more confrontational approach with Beijing.

Still, Tsai toed a delicate balance between asserting Taiwanese sovereignty while not going so far as to promote full independence, a move that would trigger Beijing, experts say.

The question now, analysts say, is exactly how Lai will carry out his promise of continuity and how Beijing will react. Beijing has criticized Lai as a separatist and “troublemaker” despite his efforts to distance himself from early advocacy for formal independence.

“Regardless of whether it’s true, the perception is that Lai Ching-te’s policy could be more provocative compared to Tsai’s policy,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center.

“Tsai basically tailored her positions and her steps very carefully without getting the United States into an uncomfortable position vis-à-vis China,” Yun said. “The challenge for her successor is whether he will be able to repeat that process.”

Hurdles ahead

Lai will indeed face some new challenges.

The DPP is struggling to push its agenda after losing its parliamentary majority in January. The Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party recently blocked a DPP proposal requiring lawmakers who are privy to confidential briefings to get approval from security services before visiting China.

They have also proposed a bill that would give parliament greater powers to scrutinize the government. A fistfight broke out at the legislative chamber as lawmakers debated the bill on Friday. Six lawmakers were taken to the hospital.

Despite the respect she gained on the international stage, Tsai is leaving her successor with a host of unresolved domestic issues.

Some Taiwanese businesses are unhappy with declining trade with China under Tsai’s watch, and her party has faced corruption scandals.

Many Taiwanese, especially the younger generation, are struggling with stagnant wages and high housing prices.

“Tsai Ing-wen has improved Taiwan’s international status, and the people’s pride has also increased. But if you ask young people about the current life problems they care about, things have not improved,” said Lai of the Prospect Foundation. “Lai Ching-te will have to deal with these issues.”

Pei Lin Wu in Taipei and Ellen Nakashima in Washington contributed to this report.