Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Valid 00Z Thu Apr 18 2024 - 00Z Sat Apr 20 2024
...Severe weather and isolated flash flooding for the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley this evening; threat shifts to the Ohio and middle Mississippi
valleys and Southern Plains Thursday...
...Warm to hot temperatures across the southern U.S.; chillier weather
spreading southeast from the northern Rockies/Plains...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop into the evening along
and ahead of a cold front now advancing eastward across Lower Michigan and
the Ohio Valley. Some of these storms may become strong to severe,
producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition to
severe weather, locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding are
concerns as well.
Later this evening, storms are forecast to develop from the central Plains
into the lower Missouri Valley. These storms too may become strong to
severe, with damaging hail expected to be the primary threat.
As the system in Plains moves further east, storms are likely to redevelop
from the Ohio Valley into the southern Plains on Thursday. Severe weather
will once again become a concern, especially across portions of the mid
Mississippi into the lower Ohio valleys. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for portions of the region, noting
that strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds, and possibly a few
tornadoes, are likely tomorrow. While widespread heavy rains are not
expected, locally heavy accumulations resulting in isolated flash flooding
are possible.
Temperatures across the southern U.S. will remain warm through the period,
with highs in the upper 80s and 90s common from the Southwest to the
Southeast over the next couple of days. Much cooler temperatures now
centered over the northern Rockies and Plains will spread southeastward,
lowering temperatures across much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley by Friday.
Pereira
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php