It Shoulda Been Me: Epicenter and Joel Rosario placing, outrun by a length by Rich Strike on May 7, ... [+]
The Preakness Stakes’ age-old form as the deceptively “shorter” centerpiece that has dashed many a Triple Crown dream will be turned on its head this year, as the 2022 top favorite Epicenter will attempt to turn the 147th running of the stakes into a rebound, of sorts, from his inability to hold the lead against a furious assault by longshot Rich Strike in the last furlong of the Kentucky Derby on May 7. Two weeks is not a long time between horse races at any level, let alone as an interval between two Triple Crown runs. The density of the gauntlet in which the Class of 2022 operates at the moment is why there have been just thirteen Triple Crown winners. Epicenter’s profile took quite a blow as the 80-1 longshot Rich Strike breezed by him in the Derby. Now he’s got the chance, in a Rich-Strike-free field, to claw himself and his reputation out of the hole in which his inability to defend his lead in the Derby left him.
However that fraught “comeback” project works out for Epicenter Saturday afternoon at Pimlico, or doesn’t, the odds favorite faces a far less daunting nine-horse field than he did in the Derby. In the May 16 Pimlico post position draw he landed in the eight hole, an appreciably better stall than he drew three from the rail in the Derby. From that more or less ideal outside perch at Pimlico, he and his jockey, Joel Rosario, should theoretically be able to dictate — within the parameters of a horse race in which nobody can dictate anything — a smoother trip for themselves with no nasty surprises as they had in the last furlong at Churchill. The emphasis here is on the theoretical advantages of that post position. His question will be whether he can truly and authoritatively convert that often slim advantage to a victory.
Chad Brown-trained Early Voting, the 86-year-old titan/trainer D. Wayne Lukas’ Oaks-winning filly Secret Oath, and Derby third placer Simplification await Epicenter with fangs bared and claws out. There’s still a ton of work for Epicenter to do in the Preakness’s mile-and-three-sixteenths.
With that in mind, and with no further ado, herewith, the post position results, along with the morning line odds.
Post position, horse, trainer, jockey, odds
1. Simplification, Antonio Sano, John Velazquez, 6-1
2. Creative Minister, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 10-1
3. Fenwick, Kevin McKathan, Florent Geroux , 50-1
4. Secret Oath, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Saez, 9-2
5. Early Voting, Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz, 7-2
6. Happy Jack, Doug O'Neill, Tyler Gaffalione, 30-1
7. Armagnac, Tim Yakteen, Irad Oritz Jr., 12-1
8. Epicenter, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 6-5
9. Skippylongstocking, Saffie Joseph Jr., Junior Alvarado, 20-1
(Source: Pimlico, May 17, 2022)
The relatively small Preakness field holds many advantages for its runners, not the least of which will be the elbow room to carve out the race that they want. The Chad Brown-trained Early Voting landed smack in the middle of the gate, in post position 5, and clocked in at 7-2 in Pimlico’s morning line, making him the race’s second odds favorite. Close on his heels as third favorite in the Pimlico oddsmakers’ view is the lone, stellar filly in the race, Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath, at a finely-shaved 9-2 in the morning line, who has been lovingly and famously trained by D. Wayne Lukas, 86, who, in turn, is clearly gunning for yet another feather in his cap after a record six Preakness victories. After his moderate fourth-place run in the Derby, Simplification has clearly caught the eye of the Pimlico oddsmakers, who have him lodged as the race’s fourth favorite with a sturdy 6-1 in the morning line. He’ll be breaking from the rail, which, at Pimlico — unlike that position in the Derby gate — actually does afford a shot at a decent trip.
Arguably the most interesting horse in this 147th Preakness field is the fifth morning line favorite, the fetchingly named Armagnac, at 12-1, with the formidable Irad Ortiz in the irons, trained by Tim Yakteen, Bob Baffert’s go-to ersatz trainer. Armagnac ran fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, behind Taiba, Messier, and Happy Jack, who is the only one of those three who are entered into the Preakness, and who is rated by the Pimlico oddsmakers next-to-last at the bottom of the nine-horse pile, at 30-1.
To get us mounted up aboard the delicate handicapping for this 147th running of the Preakness, we’ll call on the Bluegrass Wise Man ™, a Kentucky born-and-bred horseman and owner who has been so generous with us in Triple Crown seasons past.
Let’s not worry too much about the post positions. Rate the field for us. Like a lot of races, there’s a top half of the class and a bottom half of the class.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: It’s a diplomatic way of saying that the morning line makes some sense. There’s a clear odds break around the middle of the pack, below Simplification, and the horses below that break will have to have something extraordinary happen before they can pull off a win. Couple of the favorites would have to cancel each other out in a duel, or whatever. Now, exactly that happened two weeks ago in Louisville, and we’re seeing the flotsam of that race in the mix of this one. Rich Strike’s absence is huge for Epicenter. Kinda opens the door to a win up wide.
Is that door open also a smidgen for D. Wayne’s Secret Oath?
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Funny kind of entry, Secret Oath. She may just work. You have to look at what she actually did in the Oaks, and compare that to what, say, Zandon, Epicenter and Rich Strike all did within a couple of lengths of each other in the Derby. If you do that, it’s a tall order for her.
Mightn’t she be tuckered out a little? Punishing rhythm of the Triple Crown, all that?
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: This is part of the tall order. I would think she would be at least taxed by that win if not actually needing a week or two more off, and I would be very, very careful about asking her to step up and run with the boys in the second leg of the Triple Crown. Whatever you think of the field right now. But clearly her connections think they can go for it. They think the Oaks did not gut her, whereas I might be more suspicious of that. Obviously, the field is smaller with some less accomplished competitors like this new horse Yakteen is bringing. No Zandon, no Derby winner. Boiled down, their thought is, maybe we can beat Epicenter.
Which brings us to this race’s own two-legged legend, D. Wayne. Give us the rundown.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Mr. Lukas hardly needs an introduction from me in Maryland, Kentucky, or anywhere else. But let me say that he’s a a Hall of Fame legend for a reason. He hasn’t won the Preakness with a filly but he has won this race six times. That counts. It also counts that he did win the Derby with the filly Winning Colors. He’s serious, is what I think, and despite his age and his lack of winners lately, he’s won hundreds of horse races, and he’s gunning for this one.
