The powerful Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman visited the South Korean capital Seoul on Nov. 16 and met with Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol. During his brief visit, the Saudi leader showed a "strong will in weapons industry cooperation." For his part, the South Korean president also proposed that the two countries could jointly develop and produce weapons on Saudi soil.
SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA - NOVEMBER 16: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia (Front) is ... [+]
South Korea offers purchasers of its arms technology transfers and the opportunity to manufacture systems locally. Saudi Arabia aims to expand its modest domestic arms industry exponentially over the next decade. Riyadh has already signed an agreement with China to manufacture Chinese drones on Saudi soil and also wants a factory for locally manufacturing Turkish Bayraktar TB2s. Seoul could offer Riyadh similar arrangements for its various systems.
"Defense ties between South Korea and Saudi Arabia are relatively new within the last decade; pacts were signed to boost defense and intelligence cooperation in 2013 and 2017," Emily Hawthorne, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, told me. "But cooperation has accelerated in recent years as Saudi Arabia has significantly invested in its own domestic military industry, and as Saudi Arabia has worked to diversify its range of military suppliers away from a firm reliance on U.S. equipment."
Furthermore, South Korea has shared intelligence on North Korea with the Saudis, which has proven valuable for Riyadh since Pyongyang has close military ties with its main rival Iran.
"This, along with South Korea's close relationship with the United States - Saudi Arabia's traditional security patron - creates a natural affinity between Seoul and Riyadh in this area," Hawthorne said.
Furthermore, South Korea also produces advanced weaponry that fits Saudi Arabia's current requirements.
"The most likely type of South Korean weaponry Saudi Arabia is interested in is anti-aircraft weaponry, including surface-to-air missile systems," Hawthorne said. "Saudi Arabia faces the threat of Houthi drones and has long sought to boost its missile and drone defenses against nearby rival Iran."
Seoul may prove a good choice for air defenses since it has been working on two formidable systems in recent years.
This picture taken on September 25, 2017 shows a South Korean soldier standing by a Cheongung medium ... [+]
The medium-range Cheongung II KM-SAM was developed for intercepting enemy aircraft and ballistic missiles. Its interceptor missile is based on technology from the 9M96 missile used by Russia's advanced S-350E and S-400 systems. Alongside the U.S.-built Patriot PAC-3, the KM-SAM covers the lower tier of South Korea's air defenses. For the upper-tier air defenses, Seoul is developing the L-SAM system, which it anticipates can intercept North Korean ballistic missiles during the terminal phase of their flight, putting it in a similar category to the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Air Defense System (THAAD) and the Israeli Arrow 3. In November, the L-SAM completed its first successful intercept during a test.
The United Arab Emirates has become the first export customer for the KM-SAM. Saudi Arabia, facing similar threats from the Houthis in Yemen, could also opt for that system. Riyadh reportedly ran low on Patriot interceptor missiles earlier this year. Buying another system could reduce the risk of such shortages since it would give the Saudis another supply chain for such missiles.
Seoul could help Riyadh substantially diversify its military arsenal. Poland is presently undergoing an enormous military buildup, including a large procurement of 250 M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks from the United States. Warsaw is simultaneously acquiring a whopping 1,000 K2 Black Panther tanks, K9A1 Thunder self-propelled howitzers, K239 Chunmoo rocket artillery, and 48 FA-50 light combat aircraft from South Korea.
Saudi Arabia could afford a similar acquisition if it wanted and may decide to in the foreseeable future to lessen its heavy dependency on the United States. There were recent calls in Washington to suspend U.S. arms sales to Riyadh over the Opec+ decision to cut oil production. Acquiring more South Korean weaponry would enable Riyadh to more easily weather any potential American arms embargo.
"Saudi Arabia definitely strategically wants to diversify its dependence on U.S. military hardware and U.S. security cooperation," Hawthorne said. "This isn't to rupture its ties with the U.S. but to inject more flexibility and create more options (in some cases more budget-conscious options) for the Kingdom."
