Labor will not form majority government in New South Wales, after two of the final three seats in dispute after last week’s election were called for the Liberal party.
Holsworthy, in Sydney’s south-west, would be retained by the Liberals, the ABC election analyst, Antony Green, said, while also declaring the party would hold Terrigal, on the Central Coast.
Labor holds 45 seats, two short of the number required to form majority government. Green believes the only seat still in dispute is Ryde, where the Liberal candidate, Jordan Lane, had taken a narrow lead after the counting of postal votes.
It had appeared unlikely since midweek that Labor and the premier, Chris Minns, would be able to reach the 47 seats required to reach majority government, and Minns had flagged a need to work with a crossbench likely to include 12 MPs (nine independents and three Greens).
The three independents who served last term – Alex Greenwich, Joe McGirr and Greg Piper – have said they will guarantee supply for Labor, but signalled they wished to have more detailed discussions about their priorities with other crossbenchers.
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“We have had fruitful discussions with the crossbench … consistent with the principle that we took into the election that we would not be horse-trading,” Minns said on Tuesday.
“That’s consistent with my promise at the election campaign that if we were in minority and minor parties and the crossbench were prepared to support Labor, we were happy to accept their support but we wouldn’t be doing any horse-trading.”
Minns and an interim cabinet of eight ministers was sworn in on Tuesday morning, with the initial priorities for the government to include addressing fish kills at Menindee and transport issues, including recent delays on Sydney’s rail network.
But the crossbench may also push the government on gambling reform and climate action.
Despite appearing set to hold at least two of the three outstanding seats, the Liberals appear to have suffered significant swings against them.
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The party is set to hold at least 35 seats in the new legislative assembly, depending on the result in Ryde.
Tina Ayyad, who won preselection against the sitting member Melanie Gibbons, suffered a more than 5% swing against her in Holsworthy.
Adam Crouch leads by more than 1,200 votes in Terrigal after he was heavily favoured by postal votes, but there was a swing of almost 11% to Labor.
There was also an 8.7% swing to the ALP in Ryde.