LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MARCH 28: Evander Kane #91 of the Edmonton Oilers scores a goal, his 300th ... [+]
The hockey schedule turns to April and just two weeks remain in the regular season. The race in the West is Wild with Minnesota on top of the Central Division with 97 points and the Vegas Golden Knights sitting atop of Pacific Division with 99 points. Both teams have played 75 games and they will battle in a pair of home and home games starting Saturday, April 1 when the Wild roll into Vegas on a 3-game winning streak after cooling off the red-hot Avalanche in Denver Wednesday.
The overnight betting line is tight as well with both leading online sportsbooks BetMGM and Caesars opening Vegas as a -115 favorite (MIN -105) and a total of 6 goals.
With just seven games remaining in the regular season, these two games are hugely important as the tight playoff positioning at the top of the Western Conference plays out.
Central Division
- Minnesota Wild: 44-22-9, 97 points
- Dallas Stars: 40-20-14, 94 points
- Colorado Avalanche: 44-24-6, 94 points
Pacific Division
- Vegas Golden Knights: 46-22-7, 99 points (clinched playoffs)
- Edmonton Oilers: 44-23-9, 97 points
- Los Angeles Kings: 43-22-10, 96 points
Another huge playoff positioning game out West Saturday night is the Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche (-145). Also, Los Angeles at Seattle (-115) is another key game for 2-points to the winner. The Oilers (-500) are a huge favorite over the Anaheim Ducks Saturday night in Edmonton. The Kings have home games against Edmonton and Colorado next week and a game at Vegas April 6 as they try to make up ground for a shot at the division title.
Current wild cards in the West are the Seattle Kraken (90 points) and Winnipeg Jets (87 points) with Calgary (83) and Nashville (82) chasing. But the Flames still given a 32.1% chance to make the playoffs and Nashville just a 5.4% according to the analytics team at Money Puck.
Minnesota Wild goaltender Filip Gustavsson, left, looks to stop shot off the stick of Colorado ... [+]
NHL Playoff Format
This is the eighth year of a NHL playoff format that features the top three teams in each division making the playoffs, along with two wild cards in each conference. The road to the Stanley Cup is a tough one, but winning the division has has a sizable advantage playing the wild card teams this year.
The Golden Knights would much rather play the Winnipeg Jets in the First Round than the Edmonton Oilers or Los Angeles Kings if Vegas fails to hold onto the division lead. The Oilers offense and firepower is the league’s best, led by the Connor McDavid - the heavy favorite to win his third Hart Trophy (league MVP).
The second and third place teams in each division face off in the First Round, and you can see by the standings how tight it is at the top of both divisions in the Western Conference, and how home ice advantage plays out for the top two teams.
Home-ice advantage through the first two rounds goes to the team that placed higher in the regular-season standings. In the Conference Final and Stanley Cup Final, home-ice advantage goes to the team that had the better regular-season record, regardless of the teams' final standing in their respective divisions.
NHL Playoff Probabilities
According to NHL hockey analytics, playoff odds and power rankings at Money Puck, here are the playoff probabilities for each team.
Vegas is still given a 51.3% chance to win the Pacific Division with the Edmonton Oilers (27.2%) and LA Kings (19%) chasing the puck close behind. But Edmonton has an easier schedule to close the regular season with two games against both Anaheim and San Jose, but road games at Colorado and Los Angeles. The Oilers are seen as the stronger team with a better chance than Vegas to make the second and third round of the playoffs and advance to the Stanley Cup.
In fact, the Edmonton Oilers have the highest rating by Money Puck to make the Stanley Cup (22.7%) and win it (12.8%, same as the top team in the Eastern Conference Boston Bruins). The defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche are projected as a 22.3% chance to make the Stanley Cup and 12.3% chance to win it all and repeat as Cup champions.
The Vegas Golden Knights are not rating out well in the Money Puck playoff analytics with just a 7.1% chance to make the finals and 2.9% chance to win the Stanley Cup. The Minnesota Wild’s chances are just behind the Golden Knights at 5.1% and 1.9%.
Clearly much can change in the next two games between the Wild and Golden Knights. I’ll be on the Las Vegas Strip Saturday night watching the action unfold with more goals projected at the “Fortress” inside T-Mobile Arena. Vegas has scored at least three goals in 10 of their last 11 games. Minnesota has scored at least three goals in four straight games and 9 of their last 11 contests, including four or more goals eight times in regulation.
After watching live in person March 28 as the Oilers buried the puck and Golden Knights in a 7-4 victory, it’s Edmonton that looks like a well-Oiled team heading into the playoffs. The Wild and Avalanche are also playing a better and more consistent brand of hockey than the Golden Knights. The Oilers have won nine of their last 10 games with the only loss at home to Vegas, 4-3 in overtime.
Colorado is also melting the ice with a hot run winning 9-of-11 following the 4-2 home loss to the Wild March 29th. The Wild are a league-best 16-1-4 since Feb. 17. Vegas went 11-4 in March and had seven straight road wins until losing at San Jose 4-3 in overtime March 30th. The Golden Knights are 17-4-3 in their last 24 games - second-best in the league behind the Wild, who are 17-2-5 with that league best run starting Feb. 11 after a 5-1 home loss to Vegas on Feb. 9.
The return of goalie Marc Andre Fleury adds to the electric atmosphere expected inside the Fortress Saturday night. Fleury is the Golden Knights former goalie and was the fans favorite Knight. The ‘Flower’ now stops pucks for the Wild, and Fleury and Filip Gustavsson have alternated games and starts the last 10 games for Minnesota. That would suggest Fleury will be in goal in Vegas Saturday night in a most meaningful game. Wild forward Ryan Reeves also returns to Vegas.
Stanley Cup and Division Odds
At BetMGM, the Golden Knights (-145) are still favored to win the Pacific Division followed by the Oilers (+200) and Kings (+400). The Central Division is tighter with the Wild (+125) a slight favorite ahead of the Stars (+200) and Avalanche (+240).
The Boston Bruins have a league-high 58 wins and 121 points with the Eastern Conference’s Atlantic Division title secured. The Carolina Hurricanes (-250) and New Jersey Devils (+225) are just one point apart with 103 and 102 and the ‘Canes have a game in hand.
The projected playoff teams odds to win the Stanley Cup look like this at BetMGM with 6-8 games remaining for each team in the regular season. The Bruins have 34% of the money (handle) bet to win the 2023 Stanley Cup. The next closest teams are the Colorado Avalanche (13%) and New York Rangers (12%).
- Boston (+375)
- Colorado (+675)
- Carolina, Toronto (+900)
- New Jersey Devils (+1000)
- New York Rangers (+1200)
- Edmonton, Vegas (+1300)
- Dallas (+1400)
- Tampa Bay (+1400)
- Minnesota (+2000)
- LA Kings
- Winnipeg (+3300)
- Seattle, Pittsburgh, Florida (+4000)
- Calgary (+5000)
- NY Islanders (+6600)
After the Wild and Golden Knights settle the score in the next two games over three days, Vegas has a tougher five game stretch to close the season at Nashville, home vs. the Los Angeles Kings, at Dallas and home and away against Seattle. That’s six of seven games against playoff teams and three still in position to win the division and gain home ice advantage with a better match-up in the first and second round of the playoffs.
Vegas will also go to battle Saturday night without forward Reilly Smith, who has missed the last three games after suffering a lower body injury against Calgary March 23rd. Defenseman Shea Theodore is also out after suffering an undisclosed injury vs the Oilers March 28. Captain Mark Stone hasn't played since Jan. 12, and underwent back surgery on Jan. 31. Vegas has also played five different goalies in the month of March with injuries to Logan Thompson, Laurent Brossoit and Adin Hill forcing the Golden Knights to add veteran goaltender Jonathan Quick.
Vegas is still in position to win the Pacific Division and take the top spot into the Western Conference playoffs. But following two straight losses, the Knights need to play better and show their armor on the ice the next two games or it will be a tougher, Wild ride the final week of the season ahead of the playoffs and rush to the Stanley Cup finals.
You can bet on it.
