Florida Derby 2023: Best Saturday Bets, What Fort Bragg Has To Do, And Why Beating Forte Is So Darn Hard

The Florida Derby is carrying the star this year in Todd Pletcher’s Forte, who’s five-for-six and coming on strong, which is something that the Stronachs will also be celebrating at Gulfstream today. In fairness, it’s quite a fair crop of colts and fillies out of Kentucky this year, and they had a remarkable, and remarkably closely followed, first year on the track through last fall and into the spring, largely a healthy state of affairs for the sport that we can, in part, say is the result of the intense buzz Forte is creating on the track, around the barns and more splashily, in the industrial press. His cometlike status is the result of his wins, but not just. It’s reminiscent of the trackside chatter around Justify a few years back, not to put too much of a Triple Crown hex on the young dude at this early moment.

Down in and around the 30-1 rung are four entries from Barbadian trainer Saffie Joseph, of whom just West Coast Cowboy seems like he has a somewhat remote shot at spoiling some of the better runners' races. By contrast, Dale Romans’ Cyclone Mischief is solid and good fodder for the exotics. Rain is forecast for today, in the form of “scattered thunderstorms” as per the Florida season. If that comes to pass, some of these young ones won’t like the mud; some will.

But before we get into what favorites Fort Bragg and Dubyuhnell have to do to get around Forte, herewith, a refresher view of the combatants:

Florida Derby: Post position, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Morning Line

1. Jungfrau, Bill Mott, Paco Lopez, 20-1

2. West Coast Cowboy, Saffie Joseph Jr., Sonny Leon, 20-1

3. Shaq Diesel, Renaldo Richards, Miguel Vasquez, 30-1

4. Mage, Gustavo Delgado, Luis Saez, 10-1

5. Mr. Peeks, Saffie Joseph Jr., Edwin Gonzalez, 30-1

6. Nautical Star, Saffie Joseph Jr., Leonel Reyes, 30-1

7. Il Miracolo, Antonio Sano, Jesus Rios, 30-1

8. Mr. Ripple, Saffie Joseph Jr., Edgard Zayas, 30-1

9. Cyclone Mischief, Dale Romans, Javier Castellano, 8-1

10. Fort Bragg, Tim Yakteen, Joel Rosario, 5-1

11. Forte, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 4-5

12. Dubyuhnell, Danny Gargan, Jose Ortiz, 6-1

(Source: Gulfstream Park, 4/1/2023)

We’re delighted to be back with the Bluegrass Wise Man ™, our gifted Kentucky horseman from years past.

So, let’s go for the big boy.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: I think it's important to note that Forte’s started five times as a two-year-old, and it's a funny thing, but there are some horses that are just born knowing how to be a racehorse already. Don’t need a lot of schooling or coaching or backtracking by the trainer or the connections. Forte is one of those. He is tough, he's solid, and, for instance, in his one start this year he came at it off a four-month layoff and he won by four-and-a-half lengths. It was as if nothing had happened. He just saddled up and went to the office again.

Meaning?

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: That win replicated his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win as far as speed figures go, which is impressive. Then, there's this. He's competed at the top level in the class already and he is still improving. He has to be bigger and stronger since the Breeders’ Cup. He may very well be a player for the entire year, and we are certainly not going to be able to avoid him today.

Before we hit Fort Bragg, Yakteen and Dubyuhnell, tell us how you think the race will look. Do you see a lotta speed out there trying to tease Forte out front?

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: The track favors speed, but I think the pace will be sensible. For the last two years the first quarter-mile has been run in 23:43 and 23:67, respectively. The half-miles were in 47:73 and 47:24. Both years, the winners were running fifth at the first point of call. Stalkers is what I’m talking about. Funny right, for this track? So, I think they want to be close but you probably don’t want to be on the lead making the pace.

Let’s go to Fort Bragg and Dubyuhnell.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Taking the last one first because it's kinda entertaining, and it’s a great example of the conundrums trainers and owners are faced with. Dubyuhnell likes to play in the mud for some reason. Don’t ask me why, some horses are just like that, so, he needs a wet track. His two wins were on a wet track. In his two starts on dry tracks, he was beaten by a total of twenty-six and three-quarters lengths. Which is a lot, I don’t need to tell you. Now, fortunately for him but perhaps not so much for the crowd or the track or anybody else, there are scattered thunderstorms forecast for today around Hallandale. Can’t say if any of them are gonna hit, but they’re forecast. Also, with him, the outside post position is not gonna help. He's not likely to be beating or even challenging Forte if the track is dry. My advice? Use him if it rains.

And now, Fort Bragg.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: I should admit up front that I am not a big fan of Fort Bragg. He just seems like he is so deep on the Baffert bench, meaning, not at the very front. I think they were supposed to have run him last week in New Mexico but passed on it to come to Florida to try to come pick up some points. Now, can he hit the board and do that? Always a chance for that. But to have a real solid shot at taking on Forte, he would have to wake up this morning and kind of be a different horse, or at least, jump up out of himself and play a bigger game. It’s his game that’s not quite big enough to take on Forte. It’s not a ‘style’ or a ‘tactical speed’ question, it’s bigger, because it’s a big race and he’s got to run to meet it. As far as playing him, I would say use him in a superfecta, but, sorry, that's about it.