Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 12Z Sat May 17 2025 - 12Z Mon May 19 2025

...Severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall potential located across
portions of the Northeast and much of the Southern Plains today...

...Storm system spreading unsettled weather across the West this weekend
to eject into the Central Plains Sunday night and spark the next round of
widespread strong to severe thunderstorms for the Nation's Heartland...

...Record-breaking heat expected to continue across much of the Gulf
Coast, with above average temperatures extending throughout the South this
weekend...


The overall weather pattern heading into this weekend will be influenced
by two upper level features and their associated surface reflections. For
today, an upper low churning over the Great Lakes will slide eastward
towards the Northeast, which will spark numerous thunderstorms across the
Interior Northeast and northern New England. Storms could turn severe
across northeast New York, western Massachusetts, and Vermont, with
damaging winds and large hail the primary hazard. Additionally, heavy rain
could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. Along an attached
frontal boundary sweeping across the Mid-Atlantic and into the southern
Plains, an additional area of severe thunderstorms is anticipated to
develop by this afternoon along and east of a sharp dry line over
Northwest Texas. Strong to severe storms are most likely to push eastward
and impact northern Texas with large to very large hail, damaging winds,
and potentially a few tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather across North Texas.

The next upper level feature of note is a potent trough entering the West
today that will spread widespread showers and gusty winds to the Great
Basin and Rockies this weekend. In fact, temperatures aloft will drop cold
enough to support heavy snowfall at some high elevations of Utah, Idaho,
southwest Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. On the warm side of the system,
strong southwesterly winds will prompt critical fire weather across much
of southern New Mexico and West Texas into early next week. Once this
system ejects into the central U.S. Sunday night and interacts with warm
Gulf moisture streaming northward, numerous thunderstorm complexes are
likely to develop from the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley as
well as extending east of the dry line bisecting the southern Plains. All
modes of severe weather are possible along with the potential for flash
flooding late this weekend through early next week. The Storm Prediction
Center is highlighting the greatest potential for severe weather Sunday
night across northern Oklahoma and central/eastern Kansas, with the threat
gradually shifting east on Monday. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive
Rainfall has been issued for much of eastern Kansas and northeast Oklahoma
into the Ozarks Sunday night into Monday, with a larger Slight Risk on
Monday encompassing all of Missouri and extending southwest into northern
Texas. Residents and visitors are advised to check their local forecast
office for the latest updates and have multiple ways of receiving warnings.

Above average and potentially record-breaking temperatures are forecast to
continue throughout the Gulf Coast states this weekend. Widespread highs
are expected to reach into the 90s over the next few days, with
mid-to-upper 90s through parts of southern/southeastern Texas and the
Florida Peninsula. These regions also happen to fall where several daily
records could be exceeded. Be sure to follow proper heat safety,
especially given this is considered the first taste of summer heat this
season.

Elsewhere, well below average temperatures are forecast throughout the
Northern Tier, where highs will generally remain in the 50s (outside of
New England today). Low temperatures will drop towards freezing across the
Dakotas and has prompted Freeze Warnings as well as Frost Advisories to be
issued.


Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php