Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun May 05 2024

Valid 00Z Mon May 06 2024 - 00Z Wed May 08 2024

...A deep upper low will bring windy and much colder weather across a
large portion of the western U.S. as well as heavy mountain snow through
the next couple of days...

...Heavy rain and possibly severe thunderstorms over southern Texas and
Mid-Mississippi Valley this evening will taper off as a higher threat of
heavy rain and severe thunderstorms quickly emerges over the north-central
Plains later on Monday...

...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain threats will shift east into the
Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes on Tuesday...

...A rapidly intensifying cyclone will bring wind-swept rain across the
northern High Plains Monday into Tuesday with wet snow across the 
high-elevations of the northern Rockies...

...Critical fire danger is forecast for the southern Rockies...

A rather vigorous and deep upper-level low continues to push farther into
the western U.S. bringing windy and much colder weather across a large
portion of the region.  Heavy wet snow across the higher elevations of the
Great Basin and a good portion of the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Rockies will expand eastward into the central Rockies by tonight.  This
system will also bring quite a bit of wind, especially as a potent cold
front passes through the Four Corners region to Wyoming this evening,
before spreading into the Rockies and much of the High Plains on Monday as
a cyclone is forecast to intensify rapidly over the northern High Plains. 
An additional foot or more of heavy wet snow is expected to accumulate
along the Cascades in Oregon, as well as much of the northern and central
Rockies through Tuesday.  In addition, severe thunderstorms are expected
to develop over the central Plains later on Monday ahead of a potent cold
front.  These thunderstorms will tend to intensify and track toward the
north-northeast into the northern Plains and the upper Midwest Monday
night where the potent cold front and a warm front collide.  Meanwhile,
the center of the deep cyclone will then track across the northern Plains
with wind-swept rain impacting the northern High Plains on Monday.  The
cyclone center is forecast to meander over the northern Plains on Tuesday
with the threat of heavy rain and high winds continuing across
northern/eastern Montana while cold air wrapping around the deep cyclone
will support heavy wet snow over the northern Rockies.

Meanwhile across the eastern two-thirds of the country, the strong to
severe thunderstorms found over southern Texas into the mid-Mississippi
Valley are expected to gradually taper off into scattered showers and
thunderstorms later tonight as the associated upper-level disturbance
weakens.  Farther east along the East Coast, some showers and embedded
thunderstorms over the Mid-Atlantic as well as a large swath of moderate
rainfall over New England are expected to slide off the coast by Monday
morning.  Meanwhile, the scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms
associated with the weakened upper-level disturbance will slide eastward
and bring unsettled weather across the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast
and up into the Mid-Atlantic states through Tuesday.  Also on Tuesday, the
Ohio Valley, Midwest, into the Great Lakes will see more widespread
showers and possibly severe thunderstorms moving in as the lead frontal
systems from the northern Plains cyclone quickly arrive.

The cool and dreary weather from the Mid-Atlantic to New England will
gradually give way to warmer temperatures.  In contrast, much cooler
weather will continue to penetrate the western U.S. with the
passage of the deep and vigorous upper trough/low along with windy and
inclement weather closer to the elongated cyclone.  Finally, windy and dry
conditions are forecast to raise the danger of wild fires across the
southern Rockies through the next few days.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php