NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 Schools That Could Also Make the 2024 CFB Playoff

The 2024 men's NCAA tournament is well underway. Before the Sweet 16 tips off Thursday evening, it's fun to consider which schools left in the tournament could also make a run for the 2024 College Football Playoff.

Not every tournament team works here—Creighton, Gonzaga and Marquette, for instance, don't have football teams, so they can't be included. But there are a few teams that could make a legitimate run at the CFP next season.

College football's postseason is expanding to 12 teams this season, which means more chances for certain teams to make it in with one, two or even three losses. Let's run through which March Madness teams could also make the 2024 CFP.

Sure, a first-year head coach entering a brand-new conference doesn't sound like the formula for getting a playoff bid. But I have a feeling this Arizona team could surprise some people this season. New Arizona head coach Brent Brennan, who arrives from San Jose State, will benefit from the likes of quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan returning to Tucson.

Fifita, who came off the bench for injured starter Jayden de Laura in Week 4, threw for 2,869 yards and 25 touchdowns with just six interceptions. He completed 72.4 percent of his passes too, good for second in the entire Pac-12. McMillan was his favorite target last season, as he finished with 90 receptions for 1,402 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Wildcats return four starters along the offensive line and rank 38th in SP+ returning production on offense.

On defense, Arizona gets back its three leading tacklers from last season, in linebacker Jacob Manu and safeties Dalton Johnson and Gunner Maldonado. The Wildcats finished tied for 30th in scoring defense last season, allowing just 21.1 points per game.

Arizona rebounded from a 3-3 start to its season last year to win its last seven games, including a win over Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl. Brennan is excited about what he's seen from his team so far.

"The reality is, that this team here, this year was better than the team that I had [at San Jose State]," Brennan told SB Nation's AZ Desert Swarm in late January. "Had a better record and higher ranking and they were really good. And so I think there's already those pieces are in place here and but it's still what's most important is, these guys believe in each other first and foremost and then trusting me and the coaching staff to put them in the right position to win football games and can we do that week in and week out as we go in the offseason to prepare for the season and put in the work necessary."

In its inaugural Big 12 season, Arizona gets home games vs. Texas Tech, Colorado, West Virginia, Houston and Arizona State. Its away conference games include Kansas State, Utah, BYU, UCF and TCU. It's a tough road slate, especially playing at both Utah and Kansas State. But I wouldn't be surprised to see the Wildcats very much in the mix for a conference title game spot and playoff bid late in the season.

Tennessee looks to be heading in the right direction under head coach Josh Heupel, who enters year four in Knoxville this season. Following a breakthrough 11-2 season in 2022—one which would have earned a playoff bid in the expanded 12-team field—the Vols finished 2023 9-4 with a Citrus Bowl win over Iowa in a bit of a rebuilding year.

There's a lot of excitement surrounding the Vols' outlook for 2024, solely on the shoulders of former blue-chip quarterback prospect Nico Iamaleava. The former 5-star quarterback prospect from the class of 2023 had an impressive starting debut in the Citrus Bowl, going 12-of-19 passing with 151 yards and a touchdown, adding another three rushing touchdowns. There's no denying Iamaleava's talent, but he may not have as much talent around him to reach his high projected ceiling.

The Vols rank 94th in ESPN's SP+ returning production heading into next season. Tennessee has to replace some major pieces, including running backs Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small, receiver Ramel Keyton and tight ends Jacob Warren and McCallan Castles. The Vols do bring back most of their offensive line, and returning receiver Bru McCoy and landing Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell II should help.

On defense, Tennessee loses a lot along the defensive line and secondary, like cornerback Kamal Hadden, to the NFL. The Vols also lost safeties Tamarion McDonald and Wesley Walker and cornerback Doneiko Slaughter to the transfer portal. Portal additions like defensive lineman Jaxson Moi, safety Jakobe Thomas and cornerback Jalen McMurray help, but there's some inexperience there.

Tennessee's schedule looks particularly interesting, given the unknowns with how well this roster will jell on the field. We should get a good idea on Sept. 7, when Tennessee plays NC State in the Duke's Mayo Classic in Charlotte.

The Vols' nonconference home schedule includes Chattanooga, Kent State and UTEP. In the SEC, Tennessee draws road games vs. Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia and Vanderbilt. The home games come against Florida, Alabama, Kentucky and Mississippi State. If Tennessee beats Alabama and either Oklahoma or Georgia while winning out the rest, a bid is certainly on the table.

Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers are looking to make it back to the CFP for the first time in three seasons. If Clemson fails to make it in an expanded field, expect more questions to come regarding Swinney's long-term future with the Tigers.

The Tigers finished 9-4 last season, and it was the first time Swinney failed to reach double-digit wins since going 6-7 in 2010. Entering 2024, Clemson ranks 54th in SP+ returning production—79 percent of the offensive production returns for the Tigers, so there's room for some optimism.

Quarterback Cade Klubnik is expected to have a better season in 2024, entering year two of offensive coordinator Garrett Riley's system. Klubnik finished last season throwing for 2,844 yards with 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He didn't play great in losses to Duke and Florida State, and threw a combined three interceptions in losses to Miami and NC State.

Running back Phil Mafah, who had 965 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, is returning, as is most of Clemson's offensive line. Leading receiver Tyler Brown also returns, as well as Troy Stellato and Cole Turner. Clemson finished 52nd in both total and scoring offense last season—that'll likely have to improve for a playoff bid in 2024.

Defensively, getting linebacker Barrett Carter back is huge for the unit. He finished last season second on the team in total tackles with 62, including 9.5 for loss, with 3.5 sacks and an interception Although he could have been a high pick in the NFL draft, Carter will lead this unit one last time in 2024. T.J. Parker and Peter Woods also return along the defensive line.

In the secondary, Clemson gets back safety R.J. Mickens. He was third on the defense in tackles last season (42) and had three passes defensed with a fumble recovery.

We get to see if Clemson has what it takes to be a playoff team in Week 1—the Tigers face Georgia in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Clemson's home schedule includes App State, NC State, Stanford, Virginia, Louisville, The Citadel and South Carolina. The Tigers go on the road to play Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Pitt. Even with a loss to Georgia, coming out of that schedule with just one or two losses would presumably be enough to get Clemson a bid. Making the ACC title game wouldn't hurt, either, assuming the committee will value playing in conference title games. A playoff bid is a must for Swinney as he enters a critically important 2024 season.

Alabama football will look a lot different in 2024, as legendary head coach Nick Saban won't be on the sidelines. Hired to replace him is former Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer, who has a 37-9 record as an FBS head coach, most recently leading the Huskies to the national title game last season. At DeBoer's alma mater, NAIA Sioux Falls, he went 67-3 overall while winning three national championships in five seasons.

Despite some roster turnover and ushering in a new coaching staff and culture in Tuscaloosa, there's a real chance for Bama to make the playoff in 2024. Quarterback Jalen Milroe is returning, as are starting guards Tyler Booker and Jaeden Roberts. Offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor briefly transferred to Iowa but is heading back to Tuscaloosa.

There are some holes to fill at running back and receiver, as Jase McClellan and Jermaine Burton are headed to the NFL. Receiver Isaiah Bond transferred to Texas, with fellow WR Malik Benson heading to FSU.

DeBoer successfully landed key Washington transfers like center Parker Brailsford and receiver Germie Bernard, as well as defensive lineman LT Overton and cornerback Domani Jackson from Texas A&M and USC, respectively. Getting Michigan safety Keon Sabb will bring some much-needed experience to the secondary. Defensively, the Tide return defensive linemen Tim Keenan III, Jeheim Oatis and Tim Smith. Bama could use some help replacing pass-rushers like Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell.

As for Alabama's schedule, it'd be challenging even if the Tide weren't undergoing a massive transition. The big out-of-conference matchup is a trip to Wisconsin on Sept. 14. Alabama gets home SEC games vs. Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri and Auburn. The away tests include Vanderbilt, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma.

It's a bit tough to predict just how much the committee will value each win and loss in the new system. But you can assume this schedule makes a trip to the SEC title game tough. Let's say Alabama loses to Georgia and goes 2-2 or 3-1 against Tennessee, Missouri, LSU and Oklahoma. Finishing with two or three quality losses would presumably still have the Tide ranked inside the Top 12 to earn a bid.

Out of all the football schools left in the tournament, the previous four look the most likely to earn a bid. Let's run through why I think Purdue, North Carolina, Houston and others won't be playoff contenders.

Houston, San Diego State: Both of these programs finished below-.500 last year and have new head coaches in 2024. While I do think Willie Fritz is a home run hire for Houston, both programs need to build for a couple years before competing for respective playoff bids. Not to mention the committee hasn't exactly ranked mid-majors high in the past, unfortunately for San Diego State.

Iowa State, Illinois: Illinois last won the Big Ten in 2001. Iowa State hasn't won the Big 12 title ever. Illinois finished 5-7 last year, and Iowa State hasn't been able to top its 9-3 season from 2020 under Matt Campbell, who is 53-48 in Ames. It wouldn't be surprising if both Campbell and Bret Bielema, who's 18-19 at Illinois, were looking for new jobs at the end of the year.

North Carolina: I nearly put the Tar Heels as a fifth team to get a bid, and maybe Mack Brown can prove me wrong here. But UNC ranks 127th in SP+ returning production, and transfer quarterback Max Johnson likely won't be as productive as a departing Drake Maye. UNC's schedule does look pretty favorable, though, with home games vs. Charlotte, NC Central, James Madison, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and NC State. The road games are at Minnesota, Duke, Virginia, Florida State and Boston College.

NC State: Don't get me wrong, I would love to see this school make surprise runs in the postseasons of basketball and football. But it feels like nine wins is the perennial ceiling for Dave Doeren at NC State (yes, I remember the Wolfpack's potential for a 10th win in their 2021 bowl game was canceled due to COVID-19). I do love the pickup of Coastal Carolina transfer quarterback Grayson McCall. But it's hard for me to see NC State being a legitimate contender inside an ACC with a surging Clemson, Louisville, Miami and even a rebuilding Florida State.

Duke: I do think the Blue Devils hiring Manny Diaz will work out—there's less pressure to win as big and recruit as well as there was at Miami. But it'll take some time in Durham, especially with quarterback Riley Leonard transferring to Notre Dame.

Purdue, UConn: The Boilermakers finished 4-8 last season and have a doozy of a schedule in 2024. It features Notre Dame, Oregon and Penn State at home. It also includes road trips to Oregon State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan State. Oof! UConn, meanwhile, hasn't had a winning season since 2010.