2024 NBA Draft Profile: Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht complements the Pistons offense

The season is over for the Detroit Pistons, which is nothing new. But with less than 10 games left in a historically bad 2023-24 campaign, it’s time to dive deep into this year’s NBA Draft prospects.

With a 12-61 record, the Pistons almost certainly secured the top odds in the draft lottery. The bad news is, they will share the same odds with two others teams, giving each franchise with a bottom three record an equal shot at the No. 1 overall pick.

If the Pistons finish with the NBA’s worst record, which they currently own by a two-game margin over the Washington Wizards, the lowest they can select is fifth overall. The floor then drops to sixth with the second-worst record, and so on.

Detroit dropped to their lottery floor just last season, finishing with the NBA’s worst record and picking at No. 5. They selected Ausar Thompson, who looks like a potential building block of the future. But in a year when the top prize was Victor Wembanyama, the Pistons’ lottery luck was not ideal. Unfortunately for Detroit, similar lottery luck is a real possibility yet again.

It is for any team.

The team who finishes with the worst record has a 47.9% chance to pick fifth. Just next to a coin flip.

The range of prospects that Detroit may select is wide for two reasons: we don’t know where their top pick will land and the 2024 draft is as open as any. There’s no consensus No. 1 pick. Teams can choose to draft for fit or best player available. They can go for upside or an older prospect who can provide impactful minutes on day one.

Detroit Bad Boys aims to cover many prospects the Pistons could have their eye on leading up to June’s draft. Players they could target with their first selection, in the second round, by trading back and even some deep sleepers.

With March Madness in full swing, including Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in Detroit this weekend, we’re starting with Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht before he hits the floor Friday at Little Caesars Arena.

The Case for Knecht

A 6-foot-6 fifth-year senior, Knecht transferred to finish out his college career playing for Rick Barnes and the Volunteers. He spent the previous two seasons at Northern Colorado, where he led the Big Sky in scoring during his senior season with 20.2 points per game (PPG), which ranked 23rd across all Division I players. He went the JUCO route to start his collegiate career, playing his first two seasons at Northeastern Junior College in Colorado.

He entered the national spotlight at Tennessee, leading one of the country’s best teams. He’s averaging 21.1 PPG this year, while shooting 39.1% from three on over six attempts per game.

He stepped into one of the NCAA’s best leagues and continued what he did as a senior at Northern Colorado. Plus, he improved in a number of areas. At Tennessee, he’s scoring slightly more, shooting more efficiently from three and turning the ball over less in a high usage role. He’s a consensus All-American and the SEC’s Player of the Year because of it.

The pitch for Knecht is clear: he can score the basketball at any level. Plain and simple.

He dropped 40 points in Tennessee’s last regular season game against Kentucky. Ten days earlier, he put up 39 points against Auburn. He’s scored 30 or more points seven times this season, which isn’t easy to do at the collegiate level.

I do have questions about Knecht taking on a lesser role in the NBA without as many scoring opportunities. But, when a team needs him to score, he’ll be ready.

He seems to have another gear that can flip on at any moment. A takeover-type level, which we saw against Kentucky, Auburn and other high scoring performances throughout the season. I don’t think that goes away at the next level. He feels like a player who can pop on any night. Then when he’s on, his teammates will find him. Similar to what Donte DiVincenzo did to the Pistons Monday night.

Outside of the scoring, I like his awareness and drive to consistently improve.

He needs to get better as a defender, but he transferred to Tennessee with that in mind. In January, Knecht told Fox Sports’ John Fanta that the Volunteers’ defense under Barnes confirmed that he wanted to transfer there. He knew he needed to improve as a defender, so he went to the best place to do so.

There’s still a long way for him to go on defense, but the conscious decision to put himself in the best situation to improve is encouraging.

Where can Knecht improve?

Let’s stay on the defensive end of the floor.

At Tennessee, Knecht is playing around good defenders. The team gives up 67 points a game, which ranks in the top-50 across Division I. According to KenPom, Tennessee is ranked third in the country for defensive efficiency, adjusted against an average Division I opponent.

At times, his defensive flaws are covered by his teammates. I do give him a break because of what he’s asked to do as a scorer, but that’s still an issue at the next level. He’ll likely never become an All-Defense level player in the NBA. The hope is that he becomes a league average defender. I think he has upside to be slightly better than that, too. While that doesn’t sound great, a team is drafting him for his offensive ability. His defense can’t negate what he does as a scorer. If it doesn’t, he’s an effective NBA player on any roster.

Another consideration with Knecht as a prospect is age. As a fifth-year player, he’s already 22 years old and turns 23 before the draft. He isn’t as big of an upside swing compared to younger prospects, but I don’t think he’s a finished product by any means. He’s athletic and still has room to add strength, which will help his game on both ends of the floor.

That said, I think Knecht better suits a team with cornerstones already in place, opposed to a team looking for their next franchise player. But, I’m not sure any prospect in this draft class becomes an immediate face of a franchise.

How does Knecht fit in Detroit?

The Pistons need high-level shooters and scorers. Knecht fills that need seamlessly. Debatably, better than anyone else in this year’s draft class.

We don’t know the front office’s plans for the offseason. Will they move on from any of their young pieces? Will they shop their first round pick? At the very least, serious conversations should happen.

If there is a similar roster in place for next season, Knecht complements the team’s young players because he spaces the floor with his shooting ability. He can score at all three levels, making defenders pay if they over commit on the perimeter.

His defense is a question mark. We know the Pistons want to develop a defensive identity. They tried this season and it didn’t work out. Their defensive rating is 118.7 on the year, a bottom-five mark across the league. So, would Knecht’s defensive concerns outweigh his scoring power for Detroit?

Currently, he’s ranked No. 8 on my personal big board, which is a bit higher than I’ve seen elsewhere. But, he continues to rise thanks to recent performances, which could go even further with a deeper NCAA Tournament run and a strong pre-draft process.

If the Pistons pick at a floor of No. 5, Knecht may be a bit rich for their selection as we currently stand. But, that doesn’t mean they can’t trade down a few spots or fall in love and take him higher than anticipated. He’s just the type of player to shoot the lights out at pre-draft workouts and make teams see the vision.

Pistons fans can watch Knecht up close at Little Caesars Arena this Friday when Tennessee takes on Creighton in their Sweet 16 matchup. If the Volunteers win, he’ll have another game at LCA on Sunday.