Julio Rodriguez continues to chase pitches, and pitchers are taking notice | Analysis

DENVER — As the springtime rain/sleet mix blew sideways in the LoDo (lower downtown) area where Coors Field is located for much of Thursday afternoon and with temperatures in the 30s, the Mariners’ decision to wait until Thursday afternoon to fly out of Seattle for the road trip seemed prescient.

The weather for the three-game series vs. one of the worst teams in the National League should be interesting, but not warm. The forecast for Friday’s game features temperatures in low- to mid-40s with winds ranging from 10-15 mph and a 65% chance of rain. Saturday is supposed to be colder with morning snow showers and temps in the high 30s in the evening around first pitch.

Of course, since it is Denver, Sunday is supposed to be dry with a high of 68 degrees.

Had the weather forecast been a little better on Friday, it might have been safe to predict that Julio Rodriguez would hit his first homer of the 2024 season.

Given what Rodriguez did in Wednesday’s series finale vs. the Reds, a pair of hard-hit doubles, including a deep drive to center on a breaking ball, and the still hitter-friendly nature of Coors Field, it still might be a solid prediction.

There are few certainties in baseball, but Rodriguez WILL hit his first homer over the three-game series in Denver. Heck, he might hit two or three.

Is it odd to be discussing when Rodriguez will hit his first homer? Absolutely. But it’s indicative to the suboptimal start he’s gotten off to this season after being adamant in spring training about getting off to a better start.

For a reference point, he hit his first homer in his fourth game last season. As a rookie, he didn’t hit one until his 21^st game played. He’s currently at 19 games played in 2024 without a homer.

Given his age, there isn’t much of a sample size to look at from the start of the season. But here’s a look at the numbers:

2024: 19 games, 78 plate appearances, .219/.269/.260, 16 hits, six runs scored, three doubles, five RBI, four stolen bases, four walks, 27 strikeouts

2023: 19 games, 91 plate appearances, .259/.308/.482, 22 hits, 16 runs scored, five doubles, a triple, four homers, 12 RBI, four stolen bases, five walks, 23 strikeouts

2022: 19 games, 78 plate appearances, .211/.282/.268, 15 hits, nine runs scored, four doubles, six RBI, nine stolen bases, six walks, 28 strikeouts

While Rodriguez and Mariners fans often lament his slow start to last season, his real struggles came in parts of May and June. There was also a 33-game stretch from mid-June to mid-July where he hit just one home run.

So what has gone wrong this season?

He’s had some bad luck on hard-hit balls. But it’s been combination of issues.

The overlying aspect starts Rodriguez’s heightened sense of personal responsibility for the team’s success, particularly when it comes to offense. When the offense is bad, he feels he should be the one to fix it.

And while it goes against the “pass the baton” ethos of the team and the offensive philosophy, it’s also who Rodriguez is as a player and a Mariner.

That mentality seeps into his thinking at the plate and the old mantra of “trying to do too much.”

When the Mariners are struggling to score runs, he assumes the duty of getting the big hit or rescuing the team from defeat. It leads to him chasing pitches well out of the zone, trying to almost will them to the barrel of his bat.

But from an execution standpoint, teams have noticed certain patterns to getting Rodriguez out via strikeout or weak contact. Pitchers use a time-tested method to take advantage of aggressive hitters trying to get a result — hard inside early, soft away late.

With the bases empty, they hammer fastballs inside or inside and up to see if they can get a swing and miss or a foul ball. They know Rodriguez is up there looking for first-pitch fastballs and is susceptible to offering at ones inside without being able to get the barrel squarely on the pitch.

Per MLB Statcast data, Rodriguez has seen 305 pitches this season. Of that total, pitchers have thrown 135 fastballs — either two-seam or four-seam — to Rodriguez (44.3%).

But of those 135 fastballs, 82 have come on 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1 counts. And 79 of those 135 fastballs have been on the inner half of the plate or inside off the plate, including 41 considered up and in out of the zone. Of those 79, he’s taken 29 pitches for a ball, eight for a called strike, whiffed on nine and fouled off 19 and put 14 balls in play with four hits (all singles).

With his timing off, pitchers are using inside fastballs to get average contact (average exit velocity 85.4 mph) or quick strikes to get ahead.  

Once they’ve used the fastball to get ahead on Rodriguez, they will often fire off-speed pitches out of the zone, hoping he will chase and get himself out by weak contact or whiffing.

Of those 305 total pitches, 170 (55.7%) have been off-speed pitches or breaking pitches, including cutters. Of all those off-speed pitches, he’s taken 64 for balls, fouled off 27, took 24 for called, whiffed on 39 and put 16 in play with an average exit velocity of 88.7 mph, including seven hits.

To be more specific, 116 of those 170 pitches have been considered some variation of a breaking ball. From those 100-plus breaking balls, only 47 were considered in the strike zone. Rodriguez has put 12 of those pitches in play with six hits, including that double on Wednesday.

That means Rodriguez has seen 69 breaking balls out of the zone thus far. He took 48 for balls, fouled off four and swung and missed at 16.

He’s been thrown 101 pitches with two strikes this season. He’s gotten 41 fastballs with 25 out of the strike zone, usually inside or high or both, and whiffed on just four.

But of the 59 non-fastballs, 40 have been out of the zone. He’s taken 23 for a ball, whiffed on 10, fouled off five, was hit by one and put one ball in play. And of those 19 in the zone, he has taken three for called third strikes, fouled off six, whiffed on five and put five balls in play with three hits. Only one ball was hit over 100 mph.

Rodriguez knows that this is what teams are trying to do to him. He knows they did it with Mike Trout and Vlad Guerrero Jr. and others in their first few seasons. They did it with some success early last season and in his rookie season. They take advantage of his desire to want to hit the ball.

But it’s one thing to recognize how they are attacking you and another to push back against it or even beat it. All it takes is one properly executed pitch for a called strike, one stolen strike on a borderline pitch, being a tick too late and fouling off a meatball to put you at a disadvantage.

When he’s right, Rodriguez shows patience and discipline to earn his fastballs, but also punishing misplaced breaking balls. He did both on Wednesday. Will it continue?