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Israel’s Attack On Iran Doesn’t Look Unprecedented

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In a move that could further escalate already boiling tensions in the region, Israel carried out a strike inside Iran early Friday, undoubtedly its first direct response to Iran’s unprecedented April 13 drone and missile strike.

At least three explosions were heard in the central city of Isfahan near a military base. There were no preliminary reports of casualties or significant damage.

A U.S. official confirmed to CNN that the target was not nuclear. Iran’s state-run Tasnim news also reported that nuclear facilities are “completely secure.” Iran’s underground Natanz enrichment site is located in the province.

Iran promptly suspended flights and activated air defenses. Iranian media reported that the country’s air defenses shot down at least three drones over Isfahan.

Iran’s space agency spokesperson, Hossein Dalirian, claimed in a post on X that several drones were “successfully shot down by the country’s air defense, there are no reports of a missile attack for now.” He also mockingly dubbed it a “failed attack with a few quadcopters.”

Iranian media also reported that air defenses were activated in parts of the country to counter “some possible targets” but clarified that “no large-scale strikes or explosions caused by any air threat has been reported.”

Another report also mentioned that “several miniature UAVs were shot down,” which strongly suggests the usage of quadcopters.

If these reports are accurate, the attack does not seem significant or unprecedented.

Isfahan has a number of military bases and research facilities linked to Iran’s drone and missile programs. Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company, HESA, is also in Isfahan’s Shahin Shahr. Iranian Air Force F-14 Tomcat fighter jets, still the most advanced in Iran’s aged fleet, have also been based in the province for decades.

While Iran’s enormous April 13 drone and missile attack was largely intercepted, ballistic missiles did some light damage to Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel, one of the largest in the country that hosts Israel’s F-35 Lightning II stealth jets. It’s unclear as of writing if Israel sought to demonstrate that it, too, could inflict minor damage on an equivalent Iranian base.

If explosive quadcopter drones were indeed used in the attack, that wouldn’t be a first. At least two previous covert Israeli attacks used this method for surgical strikes against Iranian missile and drone sites.

Israel is widely believed to have used small quadcopter drones against one of Iran’s “workshop sites” in Isfahan in January 2023. In February 2022, Israel sent six of these quadcopter drones into Iran for an attack on a drone manufacturing facility near Iran’s western city of Kermanshah, destroying several Iranian drones.

An even earlier attack on Isfahan, in May 2021, targeted HESA factory that manufactures drones. That attack occurred mere days after Israel accused Iran of supplying Hamas in Gaza with drones.

Consequently, if Friday’s attack was as limited as many of these preliminary reports suggest, it’s certainly not unprecedented.

The most significant and consequential factor in Friday’s attack is arguably its timing. It occurred less than a week after Iran’s strike and came amidst repeated Iranian warnings that it would swiftly retaliate with even greater force than the Apr. 13 attack if Israel responded. Therefore, there is a danger that Tehran could feel compelled to respond in a significant way in order to save face. An Iranian response could lead to more tit-for-tat attacks and increase the risk of an all-out war.

Israel likely mounted the attack to show Iran it remains undeterred from the April 13 strike and is capable of and willing to hit sensitive sites deep inside the country. At the same time, it might have decided on such a light attack so Tehran could credibly brush it off as insignificant and unworthy of a major retaliation. And these early reports in Iran’s state-run media seemingly suggest Tehran might do just that.

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