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Quarterbacks will be in the spotlight when the NFL draft gets underway Thursday night. Southern Cal’s Caleb Williams should quickly join NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell on the draft-night stage in Detroit as the expected top overall choice by the Chicago Bears. LSU’s Jayden Daniels, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy could be selected soon after.

Quarterbacks are widely expected to be taken with the first three picks, and it would not be stunning if a draft-night trade results in a quarterback coming off the board fourth as well. Two more quarterbacks, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix, are candidates to be chosen later in the opening round.

The teams involved in these selections — and their fans — will dream of Pro Bowl seasons and Super Bowl victories. They will believe they have gotten the next Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow.

Whether this class of quarterbacks will be memorable for its greatness or for its great disappointment remains up for debate, and the results won’t be known for several years. But for now, at least, there are reasons to be hopeful.

“Last year I … talked about how the 2024 draft really has a chance to be a special class,” said former Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Mark Dominik, now an NFL analyst for SiriusXM. “I still think it does.”

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If six quarterbacks are chosen in the opening round, that would match <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/12/09/2024-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-first-round/" target=_blank>the record set in 1983</a>. The six first-rounders that year included three eventual Hall of Famers in John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino. The others were Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason and Ken O’Brien. (The opening round had just 28 picks then, while this year’s will have 32.)

Penix and Nix and not certain first-rounders. But there are enough quarterback-needy teams — even after a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/03/18/nfl-qb-moves-trades-signings/" target=_blank>flurry of trades and free agent deals</a> this offseason involving high-profile veterans — that it’s not out of the question they could be taken in the opening round.

“I think when we say it’s deep, we’re talking about the top six guys,” said Daniel Jeremiah, a draft analyst for the NFL Network. “That’s a big number.”

Dominik said he considers it unlikely that all six will be first-round picks.

“I think four to five is very safe,” Dominik said. “I think six is going to push it.”

There never has been a draft in which quarterbacks were taken with the first four picks, <a href="https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1775006770282606782" target=_blank>according to NFL Research</a>. There have been three drafts in which quarterbacks were chosen with first three selections. It happened in 1971 with Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning and Dan Pastorini. It happened in 1999 with Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith. And it happened in 2021 with Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance.

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That 2021 class is a cautionary tale. Lawrence went first to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Wilson was taken second by the New York Jets. Lance was selected third by the San Francisco 49ers. Justin Fields went 11th to the Bears, and Mac Jones was chosen 15th by the New England Patriots. In the three seasons since, Lawrence has had decent success with the Jaguars, but Lance, Fields, Jones and Wilson have been traded, with the Jets on Monday <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/22/zach-wilson-traded-broncos/" target=_blank>agreeing to send Wilson to the Denver Broncos</a>.

The teams that take quarterbacks early this week must hope for results more closely resembling 2020. Burrow went first to the Cincinnati Bengals. Tua Tagovailoa was taken fifth by the Miami Dolphins. Justin Herbert went one choice later to the Los Angeles Chargers. Jordan Love was selected later in the first round by the Green Bay Packers. Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick by the Philadelphia Eagles. All have developed, at least arguably, into franchise quarterbacks.

The star of this class appears to be Williams, the onetime <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/05/19/caleb-williams-gonzaga-return/" target=_blank>Gonzaga College High standout</a> and a Heisman Trophy winner at USC. His talent and creativity have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/02/26/bears-caleb-williams-justin-fields/" target=_blank>prompted some comparisons</a> to Mahomes, the two-time league MVP and three-time Super Bowl winner for the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bears <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/03/16/justin-fields-trade-bears-steelers/" target=_blank>traded Fields</a> last month to the Pittsburgh Steelers, seemingly to clear the way for them to select Williams.

Williams will face enormous expectations for a team that has not reached the playoffs since the 2020 season. But there will be playmaking talent around him on offense with wide receivers Keenan Allen and DJ Moore, tight end Cole Kmet and tailback D’Andre Swift.

The Washington Commanders have the No. 2 pick, and their new football decision-making duo of General Manager Adam Peters and Coach Dan Quinn <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/22/chris-simms-quarterback-draft-rankings/" target=_blank>probably will choose</a> between Daniels, Maye and McCarthy. Daniels is the reigning <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/12/09/heisman-trophy-jayden-daniels/" target=_blank>Heisman Trophy winner</a>.

“In talking to coaches and executives around the league,” Jeremiah said last week, “they’re, like, overwhelmingly convinced around the league that this is Jayden Daniels. … [But] I think anybody that says they know exactly what Washington is doing is lying because I don’t think Adam’s saying a word.”

McCarthy has become a polarizing figure during this draft process after helping Michigan <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/01/08/michigan-washington-wolverines-national-champion/" target=_blank>to the national championship</a>. Some analysts regard him as a galvanizing leader with a strong arm and good athleticism who is worthy of consideration with the draft’s first few picks. Others have called him a developmental quarterback who was not the centerpiece of Michigan’s run-first offense and perhaps <a href="https://twitter.com/RossTuckerPod/status/1765731628918182011" target=_blank>should not even be regarded</a> as a first-rounder.

In the NFL, though, any team that does not have a franchise quarterback is desperate to get one. And that often is evident on draft night.

“If you told me that J.J. McCarthy goes beyond the 12th pick, I’d be shocked,” Jeremiah said. “Outside of that, everything’s on the table.”

The Patriots have the third choice and need a quarterback as they begin their <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/01/11/bill-belichick-fired-patriots/" target=_blank>post-Bill Belichick era</a> under <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/01/11/jerod-mayo-patriots-head-coach-succession/" target=_blank>Coach Jerod Mayo</a> and Eliot Wolf, who now leads their front office. They could stay put and have their choice of the two quarterbacks remaining from among Daniels, Maye and McCarthy. But they say they have not ruled out trade possibilities.

“We’re open to anything — moving up, moving down,” Wolf said <a href="https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/1780959400254971912" target=_blank>during a news conference</a> last week. “We’re open for business in the first round and in every round.”

The New York Giants have the No. 6 pick and could choose a quarterback. Or they could bolster their roster around Daniel Jones, who is returning <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/11/06/daniel-jones-acl-giants-nfl-draft/" target=_blank>from a torn ACL</a> in his right knee, and newcomer Drew Lock. Three teams with quarterback needs — the Minnesota Vikings, Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders — have pick Nos. 11 to 13 and could be candidates to trade up.

Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy?

It says here they should stay put and take Daniels or Maye.

Non-QB team; take Marvin Harrison Jr. or trade down?

They surely would love to trade down and add some picks.

Draft Jones’s successor or make a move to try to help him succeed?

They addressed their QB situation by spending big in free agency on Cousins.

The Bears are poised to use their second first-rounder to bolster the roster around Williams.

The Jets are tied to Rodgers and must hope he lasts more than four offensive plays this season.

After losing Cousins in free agency, the Vikings also have the 23rd pick and could package it to trade up, perhaps for McCarthy.

12. <b>Broncos </b>(Jarrett Stidham/Zach Wilson)

Monday’s trade for Zach Wilson does not fully address their desperate need for a QB.

13. <b>Raiders </b>(Gardner Minshew/Aidan O’Connell)

There has been some speculation linking the Raiders to Michael Penix Jr.

“You’d say, man, it sure looks like we have to draft a quarterback,” Broncos Coach Sean Payton said <a href="https://twitter.com/Broncos/status/1781019999248830848" target=_blank>at a news conference</a> last week, before the trade for Wilson. “And yet it’s got to be the right fit, the right one. And if we had the tip sheets as to who everyone else was taking, it’d be easier to answer that question. And so that’s the puzzle here.”

All of it will make for plenty of intrigue Thursday, followed by years spent sorting out which teams chose wisely and which didn’t.

“Only time will tell,” Dominik said. “But I do think this class not only has the top three [or] four guys, but I think there’s other quarterbacks in this class that are going to certainly be guys that you’re going to hear about and have a chance. … So I think there’s good quality and quantity in this class that I think does make it more toward that 2020 possibility than it is 2021.”

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Mark Maske covers the NFL for The Washington Post. He has covered the NFL and the Washington Football Team since 1998. He previously covered baseball, the Baltimore Orioles, the effort to bring a major league team to Washington, and colleges.

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