1 Reason for Every MLB Fanbase to Be Nervous Already in 2024

The 2024 MLB season is about to turn four weeks old on Thursday, so it's a good time to put a question to all 30 fanbases: How's everyone feeling out there?

Though I can't speak for everyone in answering this question, I do want to dive into things that would have me feeling nervous if I was a fan of a given team. Because as early as it is, alarming developments are still alarming developments.

For contenders, this is about things that should be working but which simply aren't. For non-contenders, it's about supposed silver linings showing some unexpected tarnish.

We'll proceed in alphabetical order by city and check off three teams at a time.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll Doesn't Look Like Corbin Carroll

Record: 11-13, T-3rd in NL West

If the Diamondbacks have had one constant amid their up-and-down start to the season, it's runs. Their 134 runs are the most in MLB, which is extra impressive considering that their best hitter hasn't come online yet. That's Carroll, who's only batting .215 with a .593 OPS.

Skepticism shouldn't be warranted here, yet it is. His exit velocity and even his sprint speed are both down substantially from 2023. It could be that he's holding back. It could also be that he just doesn't have the power and speed that he had last year.

Atlanta: This Rotation Really Couldn't Afford to Lose Spencer Strider

Record: 15-6, 1st in NL East

It's all well and good that Atlanta is in its customary perch atop the NL East, but it's still working on recovering the wind that got knocked out of it when Strider underwent season-ending elbow surgery on April 12.

With that, a true ace was subtracted from a rotation that has a 4.57 ERA this season and a 5.05 ERA dating back to last year's All-Star Game. The trade deadline could offer salvation in theory, but the summer market could be light on ace pitchers.

Baltimore Orioles: Jackson Holliday Looks Overmatched

Record: 15-7, 1st in AL East

Remember the freakout that followed when the Orioles reassigned Holliday to minor league camp in March? It was a doozy alright, as the consensus was that he was more than ready to start at second base on Opening Day.

If anything, it now looks as if waiting to call up Holliday for his debut on April 10 was too soon. He has one hit in 30 at-bats, with 16 strikeouts to boot. Patience is a virtue, as they say, but not when a 20-year-old rookie is putting up numbers like those.

Boston Red Sox: This Team Isn't Built to Withstand So Many Injuries

Record: 13-10, T-3rd in AL East

The Red Sox have succeeded in playing above expectations, but seemingly every victory they've had has been of the pyrrhic variety. They lead the league in players on the injured list, and the list itself reads like a who's-who of their best guys.

They already know Lucas Giolito and Trevor Story are out for the year, and now Triston Casas may be staring down a long absence with a rib injury. It's a lot for any team to overcome, much less one with back-to-back losing seasons in its wake.

Chicago Cubs: The Bullpen Is Doing Its Best to Ruin Everything

Record: 13-9, 2nd in NL Central

The Cubs need a healthy Justin Steele and better offensive performances from Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger. But whereas such things should only require patience, fixing the bullpen may require a more aggressive strategy.

Its 3.99 ERA isn't terrible, but it has more blown saves (6) than successful conversions (5). It's also been the butt of some crushing defeats. Clearly, it's not too early for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to be working the phones.

Chicago White Sox: Their Best Prospect Is Having a Hard Time

Record: 3-19, 5th in AL Central

That the White Sox are terrible is the opposite of a surprising development, and thus not even worth getting into. What matters is the future and how well it looks in the abstract.

To this end, there's cause for concern with Colson Montgomery. The 22-year-old shortstop is nominally the White Sox's best prospect, but rough times in the Arizona Fall League (.715 OPS) and spring training (.458 OPS) are being followed by a .665 OPS for Triple-A Charlotte.

Cincinnati Reds: The Offense Can Be Hard to Watch

Record: 12-10, 3rd in NL Central

I thought about zeroing in on Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who's hitting .190 with 26 strikeouts and only one walk. But, really, he's but one cog in an offense that's as liable to infuriating as it is to be exciting.

The Reds lead MLB with 39 stolen bases, but also with 10 caught-stealings. They're fourth in isolated power, but they also have a bottom-five strikeout rate and are hitting only .219 as a team. It all adds up to an uncomfortable degree of volatility for a would-be contender.

Cleveland Guardians: The Rotation's Success Isn't Built to Last

Record: 16-6, 1st in AL Central

The Guardians have the best record in MLB, and they've supplanted the Minnesota Twins as the favorite to win the AL Central. But much of this has to do with a 3.79 ERA on the part of Cleveland's rotation that, frankly, doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

Losing Shane Bieber for the year isn't going to help keep that number down, and then you have such things as a modest strikeout-to-walk ratio and a higher-than-expected home run rate. As such, that ERA up there is a fragile one.

Colorado Rockies: This Isn't the Nolan Jones That Was Promised

Record: 5-18, 5th in NL West

Like with the White Sox, that the Rockies are a no good, very bad, terrible baseball team is no surprise. What really hurts is that the guy who was supposed to be their best player in 2024 has instead been arguably their worst.

Where's the Jones of 2023? Whereas that guy had a .931 OPS and even got some love in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, the Jones of 2024 is hitting .143 with one homer and 35 strikeouts. The Rockies have to be wondering if the 25-year-old is a building block after all.

Detroit Tigers: The Pitching Is Nice, but How About Some Offense?

Record: 13-10, 3rd in AL Central

It's cool to see the Tigers ranking second in MLB with a 2.85 ERA, and they have the talent to keep that level of dominance (or something like it, anyway) going for the rest of the year.

As more time goes on, though, the more they're going to need their offense to catch up. A collective .223/.300/.346 slash line simply isn't going to cut it. Nobody needs to get going more than Spencer Torkelson, who has zero homers after hitting 31 last season.

Houston Astros: There's No Getting Around How Screwed the Pitching Looks

Record: 7-16, 5th in AL West

That the Astros are in the AL West cellar seems like the kind of thing that has no chance of lasting all season. But then again, we said the same thing about the Cardinals last year, and even their pitching didn't have it this bad.

It's not just the AL-worst 5.10 ERA. It's also the AL-worst strikeout rate. Oh, and the MLB-high-tying 10 names on the injured list. It's a mess, alright, and one that may not be fixed by way of simply letting time pass.

Kansas City Royals: They'll Have to Pick on Guys Their Own Size Eventually

Record: 13-10, 2nd in AL Central

The Royals last had a winning season when they won the World Series back in 2015, so it's been a minute. And as such, it almost feels mean-spirited to cast doubt on them amid their promising start to this campaign.

At some point, though, the Royals will have to prove they can do more than just beat up on bad teams. They've gotten 10 of their wins against teams with losing records, otherwise going 3-7 in the 10 games they've played against fellow winners.

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout and Taylor Ward Need More Support

Record: 9-14, 3rd in AL West

Let's face it, this is a better start than anyone could have anticipated the Angels having in the first season of their post-Shohei Ohtani era. And for this, they owe a debt of gratitude to Trout and Ward, who have provided 14 home runs and 32 runs batted in.

The rest of the offense, however, has only nine homers and 51 RBI to show for this season. Inasmuch as anyone expects the Angels to sustain anything this year, that's simply not sustainable.

Los Angeles Dodgers: They're Not Covering Up Their Weak Spots

Record: 13-11, 1st in NL West

It's already been a tale of two seasons for the Dodgers, whose 10-4 start has since given way to a 3-7 slump. They'll almost certainly be fine in the long run, but that's partially contingent on their outfield and starting pitching shaping up.

The former has produced all of 0.0 rWAR, while the latter has been hit or miss after Tyler Glasnow. The returns of Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller and others off the IL should help the rotation, but the outfield could need help from the trade market or even from Ohtani.

Miami Marlins: Can They Salvage Anything at the Trade Deadline?

Record: 6-18, 5th in NL East

The Marlins are 6-9 since starting out with nine straight losses, but the trajectory of their season is still more or less the same. Everything is pointed toward a trade-deadline fire sale that, hopefully, will result in an influx of young talent.

But this is assuming that Miami will have goods to trade. For that to happen, Luis Arraez, Tim Anderson, Josh Bell, Tanner Scott and especially Jesús Luzardo, who has a 6.58 ERA, will need to shape up and rebuild their value after cold starts to the year.

Milwaukee Brewers: The Back Half of the Rotation Is Pretty Thin

Record: 14-7, 1st in NL Central

The Brewers as an offensive juggernaut? That wasn't the case last year, but it's hard to chalk it up to coincidence when a team's slugging percentage shoots up from .385 to .441 from one season to the next. Raking is happening, alright.

Now, about the starting rotation. It's been good when Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea (1.99 ERA) have started, but not so much when others (5.15 ERA) have. And with DL Hall and Wade Miley now on the IL, what depth there is is only getting shallower.

Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton Looks Washed

Record: 8-13, 4th in AL Central

Under the microscope here should arguably be Minnesota's starting pitchers, who've gone from a 3.82 ERA in 2023 to a 5.03 ERA this season. But it's supposed to be offense that makes this team go, and that's where Buxton's struggles loom large.

The Twins are used to him missing time with injuries, but not to him not hitting when he's on the field. Yet so it goes now, as he's batting .217 with no homers and 25 strikeouts. And when one looks under the hood, one sees nothing that portends better times ahead.

New York Mets: Edwin Díaz Looks Weirdly Vulnerable

Record: 12-10, 3rd in NL East

There's cause for concern with Francisco Lindor, but at least he's coming around with 10 hits in 30 at-bats over his last eight games. His rise mirrors that of the Mets in general, who are 12-5 since starting 0-5.

Still, is anyone else a little worried about Díaz? His results are fine, but he isn't quite the same guy that he was before he suffered last year's season-ending knee injury. His average fastball is down 2.4 mph and his strikeout and walk rates have taken turns for the worse.

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge Doesn't Look So Good

Record: 15-8, 2nd in AL East

There's plenty about the Yankees' 15-8 start that doesn't pass the smell test, but that's OK. This club's proper peak should still be somewhere in the future, specifically whenever they have a healthy Gerrit Cole and a hot Judge.

However, precisely when Judge, who's only batting .174, will get hot is becoming an uncomfortable question. He's still dealing with the toe injury he suffered last June, and he's otherwise among the biggest exit velocity and hard-hit rate losers of the season.

Oakland Athletics: Zack Gelof Is Having a Gnarly Sophomore Slump

Record: 9-14, 4th in AL West

This is tricky. The A's aren't good, yet are somehow better than expected. It should be a feel-good story, but the state of the franchise is such that nobody feels good about anything A's-related these days. In the face of such things, "nervous" isn't really a relevant emotion.

Still, whatever A's fans are hanging on can't be thrilled with what they've seen from Gelof. He was the best reason to watch in the latter half of 2023. Even after his clutch homer on Monday, he's still rocking a .623 OPS with a higher whiff rate than even Javier Báez.

Philadelphia Phillies: Nick Castellanos Is Awful

Record: 15-8, 2nd in NL East

Strider's injury may have been terrible news for Atlanta, but that made it good news for the Phillies. Meanwhile, they've also won 13 of 17 since dropping their first two series of the year. Things are looking up, in other words.

Now, if they could just get Castellanos going. Him running hot and cold is nothing new, but this is a different kind of cold. His .472 OPS comes without even one silver lining among his peripherals, which consist entirely of below-average contact metrics.

Pittsburgh Pirates: So Much for the Oneil Cruz Breakout

Record: 12-11, 4th in NL Central

Even if the Bucs didn't get off to a 20-8 start this time, going from 9-2 at the outset to 3-9 since then has 2024 feeling like 2023 all over again. And on a micro level, the scintillating performance that Cruz put forth in spring training already feels like ancient history.

Whereas he had a 1.072 OPS and seven homers during the spring, he now has a .637 OPS and a league-leading 37 strikeouts in the regular season. It's not what the Bucs wanted to see from the 6'7", 215-pound shortstop after he missed most of last year with a fibula fracture.

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado Still Doesn't Look Right

Record: 13-12, 2nd in NL West

With Yu Darvish on the IL and Joe Musgrove nursing a 5.74 ERA, Padres fans have a right to also be alarmed about the starting rotation. But concerns about Machado were there first, and they're not exactly fading.

His surgically repaired right elbow still isn't healed enough for him to return to third base, and he only has a .740 OPS in the meantime. Put together with what he did in 2023, he now has a good-not-great 114 OPS+ to show for his last 162 games.

San Francisco Giants: Blake Snell Is Even Rustier Than Expected

Record: 11-13, T-3rd in NL West

The Giants didn't close their deal with Snell until the third week of March, so it was always reasonable to expect that he would need time to get his bearings. But still, it's not good that his ERA dropped to 11.57 after he allowed five runs in 4.2 innings in his last start.

The lefty has at least been staying away from ball four, but he's working with a career-low strikeout rate and allowing hits at more than twice the rate he did in 2023. It's probably just small-sample-size noise, but it's costing the Giants all the same. They're 0-3 in Snell's starts.

Seattle Mariners: The Offense Has Been Hard to Watch

Record: 11-11, 2nd in AL West

This could specifically be about Julio Rodríguez, who has a .626 OPS and no home runs. But he'll be fine. He also started slow in 2022 and 2023, yet he was an MVP candidate by the end of both seasons. Some guys are just slow starters.

Yet even a fully functional J-Rod may only be able to do so much to redeem this offense. The Mariners have the second-highest strikeout rate in MLB and are also among the least powerful teams in the league. If one of those things is fixable, it's probably not the first thing.

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt Doesn't Look Like a Major League Hitter

Record: 10-13, 5th in NL Central

Nolan Arenado had also been having a rough go of it at the plate, but he's come around with 13 hits in 37 at-bats over his last 10 games. For now, the Cardinals can only hope that the same will eventually happen with Goldschmidt.

He's been downright awful, batting .195 with two homers and 27 strikeouts. None of his peripheral metrics inspire optimism, least of all his dramatically reduced hard-hit rate. What we're seeing may be the 36-year-old's prime ending in real time.

Tampa Bay Rays: This Might Be the Worst Bullpen in Baseball

Record: 12-12, 5th in AL East

The Rays have somehow converted more saves (7) than they've blown (5), but it's not for lack of trying. The bullpen has a 5.27 ERA, and it's a surprise that it's that low.

Rays relievers have the third-lowest strikeout-to-walk ratio in the league, as well as the second-highest home run rate. And lest anyone think this isn't a stuff problem, Stuff+ suggests it actually is exactly that.

Texas Rangers: Corey Seager Doesn't Look Right

Record: 12-11, 1st in AL West

The Rangers haven't really taken off yet, but they don't need to worry about doing that until they have Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom back in their rotation. In the meantime, it's fair to scrutinize what's up with Seager.

After hitting everything in sight last year, he now has a .678 OPS and both his exit velocity and his hard-hit rate are way down. In what may be a related story, he's still only a couple months removed from surgery to repair a sports hernia.

Toronto Blue Jays: Improbably, the Offense Has Gotten Worse

Record: 13-10, 4th in AL East

The Blue Jays ranked in the top three of the American League in scoring annually between 2020 and 2022. But then they slipped to eighth in 2023, and now they're in the No. 10 spot so far in 2024.

Some of the blame rests with the front office, which curiously doubled down on defense during the winter. But it's not on the suits that Bo Bichette is hitting .241, or that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. just continues to fade as an offensive threat. He has just a .717 OPS.

Washington Nationals: The Double-A Level Continues to Confound Dylan Crews

Record: 10-11, 4th in NL East

The Nationals have taken a nice turn toward competitiveness, but the long game is still what this team is all about right now. And to this end, their No. 2 pick from last year's draft isn't progressing as quickly as they'd hoped.

It's obviously too soon to write Crews off, of course, but his slow start for Double-A Harrisburg is an unwelcome variation on a theme. Combined with what he did there last season, he only has a .648 OPS to show for 30 games at that level.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.