Thursday begins the 49th draft in Seahawks history and the 15th for president of football operations John Schneider — but the first since 2009 without Pete Carroll.
And for months now, many draft analysts have felt there is little mystery to what the Seahawks will do with their first pick at 16th overall — take UW offensive lineman Troy Fautanu.
Other names, of course, have been mentioned, such as UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu, Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, Illinois defensive tackle Jer’Zahn “Johnny” Newton and Iowa safety/cornerback Cooper DeJean, to name a few.
Fautanu has stood out for a while because of the Seahawks’ needs on the interior of their offensive line, and that he played at UW for Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and offensive-line coach Scott Huff.
Few drafts ever go to plan, and the Schneider-era Seahawks have certainly thrown their share of curveballs through the years.
Here are four pressing questions as the draft finally arrives.
Q: Is Schneider really under more pressure than ever with Carroll gone?
A: Not, apparently, in the eyes of Schneider, who said earlier this year he doesn’t necessarily think he has any more say in things now than he had before, even though Carroll carried a title that put him at the top of the decision-making chain.
“I don’t feel like I haven’t been running the organization,’’ he said in February. “I understand the question, but I don’t feel like there’s been one person necessarily running the organization.”
Schneider holds the title of president of football operations while Mike Macdonald carries only the title of head coach. Carroll was the executive vice president of football operations, denoting that, at the least, he had veto power.
Schneider may be correct in the larger sense that there is never not pressure on anyone who has some decision-making power to hit on the draft.
The spotlight will shine a little brighter now on Schneider — whose contract runs through the 2027 draft — to assure the Seahawks get it right.
Not that Macdonald won’t have his say, as Schneider is sure to tap into the opinions of the many coaches on the staff who have recent college experience.
Q: Will six quarterbacks really go before the Seahawks pick at 16?
A: The guess here is a solid, “There’s a really good chance.” Most expect the top three picks to be QBs — Caleb Williams (Chicago), Jayden Daniels (Washington) and Drake Maye (New England).
That leaves four other teams before the Seahawks’ pick that could take QBs — the New York Giants at 6, Minnesota at 11, Denver at 12 and Las Vegas at 13. There are three quarterbacks who could fill those slots — Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix.
Many think the Vikings have their eye on McCarthy, and a buzz around the league is Denver coach Sean Payton loves Nix. If so, that could leave it up to a team wanting to take Penix to tie the record for most QBs taken in a first round (the other being 1983) — and there’s been a lot of buzz that the Raiders like him a lot.
If that happens, the Seahawks don’t have a decision to make about a quarterback when the 16th pick rolls around since no one else is regarded as a first-round pick.
Q: Will the Seahawks trade down?
A: With only one pick in the top 81, you’d certainly think they would like to.
The debate is whether adding later picks — be it one in the late first round and another in the late second, or two second-rounders, or something like that — is worth passing up on a potentially elite player at 16.
Two general managers — Joe Schoen of the Giants and John Lynch of the 49ers — have gone on the record in the last few days to say they have first-round grades on either 15 (Schoen) or 22 (Lynch) players.
The Seahawks’ number of players with a first-round grade is probably right in that same area.
While there are exceptions, history shows the chances of getting a true impact player are better the higher that player is selected.
Consider that of the 59 players taken with the 16th pick in the Super Bowl era (since 1966), 10 have been named an AP All-Pro first-team selection at least once, a list that includes Hall of Fame receiver Jerry Rice and safety Troy Polamalu.
Drop that just nine spots, to the 25th pick, and there are just three players who have been named an AP All-Pro first teamer.
Still, going from 16 to 81 would be a long gap without picks, leaving lots of time to remember that the return for doing so is defensive lineman Leonard Williams.
While there’s a perception that they “always’’ trade down, the Seahawks kept all of their three first-round picks and used them in their scheduled spots the last two years and haven’t traded their first-round pick to move down since 2019 (they didn’t have one in 2021 because of the Jamal Adams deal).
Q: Could the Seahawks pull a surprise if they stay at 16?
A: The biggest surprise for the Seahawks would be not drafting Fautanu if he is available, since he’s been the favorite choice of mock drafters for weeks.
As the draft neared, there were more questions about how high Fautanu would go. According to a report from SI.com this week, Fautanu’s knee has been “flagged” during physicals with some teams, described as something that wouldn’t be an issue in the short-term but could impact his longevity.
And as noted earlier, there are a handful of ways the Seahawks can go with this pick. There seemed to be more buzz about DeJean this week with people thinking he’d be a perfect fit for a Macdonald secondary based on the scheme he worked with in Baltimore.
Seahawks senior director of player personnel Matt Berry said last week the Seahawks have to consider far more possibilities this year than the last two seasons when their first picks were at No. 9 (left tackle Charles Cross in 2022) and No. 5 (cornerback Devon Witherspoon in 20223).
“Changes quite a bit,’’ Berry said. “It’s the calculus of what players are going to be available, right? You had to see who the fifth player would be last year. Then we also had 20 [taking receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba], so you were trying to figure out who is going to be in each spot. This year, we’re at 16. That’s a lot more factors go into that. A lot more players will go off the board. You’re trying to figure out if there’s going to be a player you want to select. If not, if you have a trade partner to slide back with. You’re working both angles all the time.”
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