Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy passes during the NFL football scouting combine, Saturday, March ... [+]
The 2024 NFL Draft begins tonight, featuring one of the most loaded groups of quarterbacks in history. It’s possible that teams could select passers with the first four picks for the first time ever, and as many as six might be taken in the first round.
The Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders are almost certain to choose quarterbacks with picks one and two overall, most likely Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. The New England Patriots will follow with the third pick, and they’re expected to either draft Drake Maye or trade the pick to someone else who will. The Arizona Cardinals are in a prime trade spot at four for any club that wants to move up for J.J. McCarthy. Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. are also in consideration to be drafted later in the first or second rounds.
There are more than six teams searching for a long-term quarterback though. All of those clubs except the Bears, Commanders, and Patriots will attempt to get ahead of each other to select one. Here are the leading contenders to trade-up for Maye, McCarthy, Nix, or Penix.
New York Giants
The Giants collapsed last year after giving Daniel Jones a four-year, $160 million contract. The team finished 6-11, but Jones didn’t finish the year. After starting the first five games—winning just one of them and with the team averaging only 12.4 points per game—he missed three contests with a neck injury. In his first start back, he tore his ACL. If they’re no longer convinced he’s the quarterback they want to lead the offense, they can release him after the 2024 season by eating $22.2 million in dead money.
It’s no certainty that they will draft a quarterback early. They have other needs on their roster, and an elite wide receiver will be available when they’re on the clock with the sixth pick. It’s also possible that the passer they desire will be unavailable—reports have them eyeballing Maye—which could force them to go in another direction. They don’t pick again until 47th overall, which might put them in play for Nix or Penix, possibly by trading up in the late first or early second round.
Minnesota Vikings
After six seasons in purple including three Pro Bowl selections, Kirk Cousins is gone. He signed with the Atlanta Falcons in free agency. If the season started today, their starting quarterback would be Sam Darnold, who has flunked out of three organizations in six years.
In March, the Vikings traded for an additional first-round pick, sending their 2024 and 2025 second-rounders and a sixth-rounder to the Houston Texans for the 23rd overall selection and a seventh-rounder. The only reason a team would make a draft pick-only trade more than a month before they know who will be available on the board at 23 is for trade-up ammunition.
Including their preexisting 11th overall pick, they have plenty of capital to trade up for Maye or McCarthy. Both their depth chart and draft pick assets are designed with a trade for a quarterback in mind, so it will be a shock if they neglect to do so.
Denver Broncos
The Russell Wilson Era is over, and it’s a cautionary tale for what happens when a team is wrong about a quarterback. The Broncos released him this offseason, eating an astonishing $85 million in dead money. This is more than double the previous record for the highest dead money cap hit for a single player—the Falcons swallowed $40.5 million when they released Matt Ryan in 2022.
It’s going to be a difficult season in Denver as they try to rebuild around the burden of Wilson’s contract. They have the 12th pick in the draft, and they could try to find their quarterback of the future. That could necessitate a trade-up for McCarthy, a trade-down for Nix or Penix, or they might decide to select Nix right where they are without making a trade. Then again, they’ll probably have an even higher pick in next year’s draft, so they could address other areas of the roster for now.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders signed Gardner Minshew to a two-year, $25 million deal this offseason. He’ll be backed up by second-year player Aidan O’Connell, who threw for 12 touchdowns with seven interceptions in 11 games as a rookie fourth-round pick. While Minshew and O’Connell give the team more stability at quarterback than the Giants or Vikings, neither player is viewed as a likely long-term solution.
It’s no secret that their favorite passer in this draft class is Daniels. The Heisman Trophy winner at Louisiana State was originally recruited to Arizona State by Antonio Pierce, who is now the Raiders’ head coach. He’s seen as the likely choice of the Commanders to be the second overall pick, but if Washington opts for Maye instead, Las Vegas’ front office will work the phones to try to trade up and grab him.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons would be a surprise team to pick a quarterback, especially after signing Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed. However, he will turn 36 in August and the team has the flexibility to move on from him after two or three seasons.
Cousins’ age and contract structure put the Falcons in play to select a developmental quarterback to succeed him. That probably won’t be their pick at eighth overall, but it does mean they could consider Nix or Penix later in the first or second rounds. They have the 43rd overall pick, which they could package with one of their two third-rounders to move up.
