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The Atlanta Falcons’ Cap Issues With Kirk Cousins And Michael Penix

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Quarterbacks are the story of the 2024 NFL Draft. The position provided the first three picks, and for the first time ever, six of them landed in the top 12. The biggest head-scratcher by far was the Atlanta Falcons’ selection of Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick—and no one was more shocked than their new free-agent signee Kirk Cousins.

After six years and three Pro Bowl appearances with the Minnesota Vikings, Cousins signed with the Falcons on a massive four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed. He will turn 36 in August, so his signing is a win-now move—especially at that level of financial commitment.

Ordinarily, it would make sense for a team with an aging passer to draft his replacement, but not in the same offseason that he signs a long-term contract. Cousins is virtually certain to remain on the roster for at least two seasons. The team will eat $25 million in dead money against the salary cap if they cut him after 2025 and $12.5 million if they release him after 2026.

Plenty of rookie quarterbacks serve as backups when they first enter the league, even if they’re drafted highly, but it’s exceedingly rare for a top-ten pick to spend two full years on the bench. That’s what awaits Penix unless Cousins’ performance declines—which would present a whole different problem for the Falcons.

Rookie contracts are four-year deals, and first-round picks have a team option for a fifth year which must be exercised after the players’ third season. That means Atlanta must make a decision on Penix’s option after the 2026 season, so they’ll need to get him real game experience that year at the latest. It effectively assures the team will release Cousins after two seasons unless Penix has been injured or ineffective—in which case they will have just wasted the eighth overall pick.

There’s no doubt that the Falcons brass has a conviction about Penix to draft him so early, but he’s older than a typical rookie quarterback. With an extra year of eligibility granted to all college football players in 2020, he spent four years at Indiana followed by two at Washington, including four season-ending injuries. By the time Atlanta can realistically cut Cousins in two years, Penix will already be 26 years old.

From a roster-building standpoint, the benefit of drafting a first-round quarterback is that their rookie contract is far below the going rate for their position, which is north of $40 million per year for a veteran starter. That allows a team to invest cap space in other areas of the roster. For reference, last year’s eighth pick was running back Bijan Robinson—coincidentally a teammate of Cousins and Penix in Atlanta. He signed a four-year deal for just under $22 million in total. Penix’s deal won’t be much higher.

With both Cousins and Penix on the roster, the Falcons eschew that benefit—regardless of who starts. Cousins’ cap hits will be $25 million in 2024 and $40 million in 2025 with $25 million in dead money if they release him in 2026. That means even though they just drafted a rookie quarterback, but still must commit starter money to the position for the next three years anyway.

For that reason, many teams who take a quarterback high in the draft sign a veteran to a shorter deal to provide stability and competition. For example, the New England Patriots acquired Jacoby Brissett on a one-year, $8 million deal, then selected Drake Maye with the third overall pick.

Many mock drafts picked Atlanta as the destination for the first defensive player to be chosen, and indeed every defender in the draft was still available when they drafted Penix. There were also a handful of highly-rated pass-catchers and offensive lineman selected in the next several picks after them.

A player at any of those positions would have improved the Falcons’ fortunes for the 2024 season, suiting up alongside an established, veteran quarterback in Cousins. Barring an injury, the one draft position that won’t help them this year is the one they picked because only one quarterback can play at a time.

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