Game Five Preview: Avalanche look to complete Gentleman’s Sweep

Who saw this coming after Game One in Winnipeg? Colorado is back in Canada tonight riding three straight wins to a chance to get out of the first round in just five games.

They’ve done it by playing a relentless forechecking game while tightening up the defensive miscues that plagued them throughout the year, and of course, getting the good version of goaltender Alexandar Georgiev’s Jekyll and Hyde act since he bottomed out in the opener.

Goaltending will be key again, as Georgiev has done the unthinkable and outdueled presumptive Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck for three games and will need to again to close out the series. A lot of that has to do with the phenomenal work of the Avalanche defenders - both the blueliners and forwards - playing a team game that left few cracks for the Jets to exploit.

So far, so great from the Avalanche skaters - can they keep it up against a Jets team playing with their season on the line? And can Georgiev stave off Mr. Georgi-Hyde one more time? We’ll find out tonight in ... Elimination Night: Jets on the Edge!

Colorado Avalanche

The Avs have been dominant in this series, tilting the ice away from their net consistently and convincingly night in and night out - and they’re doing it despite underwhelming performances from their Hart-caliber forwards in Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.

Yes, the Avs top line has produced and generally won their matchups regardless of whom Jets Coach Rick Bowness has thrown at them, but we’ve yet to see the big guns up front take over a game and rack up points in bunches. A chance to end the series early could be the perfect time for them to make their mark - but they might not have to as Artturi Lehkonen and Casey Mittelstadt have found spectacular chemistry and led the second line to ridiculous underlying metrics and goal totals. Oh and Val Nichushkin is tied for the league lead in playoff goals after his hat trick in Game Four. It’s nice to have depth!

On the backend, Colorado has been blessed with an ascendant god in Cale Makar, making the Jets look like peewees trying to defend a coach out there. Plus, Sam Girard’s return has settled the lineup and created three pairs that can turn pucks over quickly and spring the rush back the other way. He has been excellent and allowed Sean Walker to flourish in more protected matchups.

The skaters are firing on all cylinders, and just need to keep up their play to finish this thing off.

Projected Lines

Valeri Nichushkin (13) - Nathan MacKinnon (29) - Mikko Rantanen (96)
Artturi Lehkonen (62) - Casey Mittelstadt (37) - Zach Parise (9)
Miles Wood (28) - Ross Colton (20) - Nikolai Kovalenko (51)
Andrew Cogliano (11) - Yakov Trenin (73) - Brandon Duhaime (12)

Devon Toews (7) - Cale Makar (8)
Sam Girard (49) - Josh Manson (42)
Jack Johnson (3) - Sean Walker (26)

Note: Joel Kiviranta is day to day, and if he’s good to go he’ll take Kovalenko’s spot.

Winnipeg Jets

In Game Four, Bowness tried some minor roster tweaks - one by choice and one due to injury. With Brendan Dillon out with a lacerated hand, Logan Stanley slotted into the lineup and got absolutely chewed up in all situations. Up front, David Gustafsson was scratched in favor of Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, allegedly because of his PK prowess - but he didn’t play a single minute 4v5.

Tonight, the Jets should pull both those guys and try Colin Miller and Cole Perfetti. Bowness hasn’t committed to that, but he did say lineup changes were coming. Miller would give Winnipeg a steady, right-shot bottom-pairing guy to pair with Nate Schmidt (or Dylan Samberg if Dillon is able to return) whose best days are certainly behind him but can still move pucks and defend at a higher level than Stanley. It’s unclear if this will happen.

Perfetti on the other hand is extremely likely to make his playoff debut at 22 years old in place of the injured Vlad Namestnikov, who took a puck to the face that broke his cheekbone. He’s a skilled playmaker who put up 19 goals and 19 assists in 71 games this season, and his absence from the lineup so far has been a bit of a headscratcher considering the Jets need a creative sparkplug and that’s Perfetti’s whole thing.

Most importantly, however, they need Connor Hellebuyck to find his Vezina form again. His ‘struggles’ this series are somewhat real - he’s not been the best version of himself to be sure - but are also mostly because Colorado has been incredibly dangerous every game - they’ve controlled the vast majority of offensive zone time and generated 17 expected goals to just 10 for Winnipeg. Hellebuyck has given up 19 goals, just two over expected, which is uncharacteristic of him and the worst among playoff goaltenders, but not actually that bad on the whole.

Projected Lines

Nikolaj Ehlers (26)- Mark Schiefele (55) - Gabriel Vilardi (13)
Cole Perfetti (91) - Sean Monahan (23) - Kyle Connor (81)
Nino Neiderreiter (62) - Adam Lowry (17) - Mason Appleton (22)
Alex Iafallo (9) - David Gustafsson (19) - Tyler Toffoli (73)

Josh Morrissey (44) - Dylan DeMelo (2)
Dylan Samberg (54) - Neal Pionk (4)
Nate Schmidt (88) - Colin Miller (6)

Goaltenders

It’ll be Georgiev vs. Hellebuyck. No questions.