Question 1

Who is Jeremiah Manele, the Solomon Islands’ new prime minister?

Accepted Answer

Manele, 55, was a diplomat before entering politics in 2014. Experts say that background in statecraft could play into China’s hands by keeping the Solomons out of the international spotlight. “In Manele, you have a far less strident and polarizing political figure,” said Mihai Sora, a Pacific expert at the Lowy Institute in Sydney and a former Australian diplomat in Honiara. “This may actually have dividends for China in the sense that they might continue to enjoy the privileged political access that they had with Sogavare, but there might be less international scrutiny on their activities.” Manele is likely to continue pursuing close relations with China, although in a less “rabble-rousing” manner than his predecessor, said Cleo Paskal, a Pacific expert and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. At a recent campaign rally, Sogavare praised Chinese governance and suggested Western-style democracy leads to moral decay. Manele served as foreign minister under Sogavare’s administration, which switched diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China in 2019, and in 2022 struck a secret security agreement with Beijing. “He was the contact guy for engagement with China,” said Paskal. “He wouldn’t have been selected as the prime ministerial candidate for [the incumbent] party if they expected him to drift far from the path.” The United States and its allies worry the security pact — which gives Chinese ships, including military forces, full access to the Solomons, according to a leaked copy — could lead to the establishment of a Chinese military base, although China and the Solomon Islands have denied any such plans. Chinese navy ships regularly brush up against U.S. allies in the region. The Chinese navy’s floating hospital ship, Peace Ark, docked in Honiara last year, ahead of a planned visit by the U.S. Navy hospital ship Mercy. Manele heads up a group called the Government for National Unity and Transformation made up of lawmakers from three parties, including his Our Party. His main rival, Matthew Wale, who leads the main opposition Democratic Party, was trying to get the numbers to form a government but failed. Wale has argued the 2022 security deal with Beijing would affect regional security and could jeopardize relationships with traditional allies. The country’s political elite had long perceived by the people of the Solomon Islands as “compliant to Asian business interests in the granting of logging, fishing and mining concessions, Wale wrote in an article in the Guardian newspaper at the time of the deal. Wale also opposed spending money on last year’s Pacific Games — including flashy stadiums funded by Beijing — when the country’s hospitals were in dire need of repair. Wale had the support of Peter Kenilorea Jr, an outspoken lawmaker and the son of the country’s first prime minister, who has advocated switching ties back to Taiwan. “That ship has long sailed,” said Sora of the Lowy Institute. “China’s significance as an economic partner for the Solomon Islands outweighs the relationship that the Solomon Islands had with Taiwan.”

Question 2

Why are the election results important to the U.S. and its allies?

Accepted Answer

The United States is increasing its aid and diplomatic engagement with Pacific nations, including the Solomon Islands, as Washington fears that Beijing is outcompeting it in even the tiniest of countries. Washington has scrambled to catch up, reopening an embassy in Honiara in January last year — 30 years after it closed it. It also opened an embassy Tonga last May. There are plans for two more in Vanuatu and Kiribati. The 2022 security pact between the Solomon Islands and China sparked fears it could lead to the establishment of a Chinese military base in the site of some of the fiercest fighting of the Pacific campaign in World War II. Thousands of American soldiers died in the Guadalcanal campaign. The island chain lies only about 1,200 miles east of the Australia, a key U.S. ally. China’s biggest technology company, Huawei, is building dozens of telecommunications towers in the archipelago, raising concerns it could enable Chinese surveillance. Last year, Sogavare signed a pact on police cooperation during a visit to Beijing. Washington fears that the Solomons deal is becoming a blueprint for Chinese ambitions across the region, although other Pacific nations, notably Fiji, seem wary of the conditions attached.

Question 3

How close are China-Solomon Islands relations?

Accepted Answer

Even before the Solomon Islands switched diplomatic ties to Beijing in 2019, Chinese businesses in the archipelago were a source of tension. Many of the stores lining Honiara’s potholed main street are owned by recent Chinese migrants. Chinese businesses have been targeted in riots as far back as 2006. In 2021, protesters set fire to Parliament, demanding the prime minister’s resignation. The days-long riots spread across the capital, Honiara, targeting the Chinatown area and Sogavare’s home. Sogavare’s Our Party won about 15 of the 50 seats in parliament in last month’s election — a result some experts interpreted as a backlash against China. “If you end up with basically Sogavare-lite, a kinder, gentler-looking but pro-[China] party, the people of the Solomons, who didn’t vote for that, will not be delighted,” said Paskal. “There’s concern about potential unrest.” In an interview with Australian Broadcasting Corp. ahead of Thursday’s leadership vote, Manele suggested the incumbent Our Party’s poor election result was a reflection of its lawmakers not meeting the needs of their own local constituencies, rather than a rejection of the party or its China policies.

Question 4

What has outgoing Prime Minister Sogavare said about Beijing?

Accepted Answer

Outgoing prime minister Manasseh Sogavare was openly pro-Beijing, and known for his combative relationship with the West. During a week-long visit to China last year, Sogavare said his country had “a lot to learn” from China. In a televised address announcing his decision to stand aside, Sogavare said “geopolitics is at play” and his government had been “under pressure from the United States and western allies” after the 2019 decision to switch recognition to China. Experts expect Sogavare will continue to wield influence within the new government. “He’s a proxy. And proxies are disposable. But he still has some utility” to China, said Paskal. In his Monday address, Sogavare repeated a phrase he often used to describe his foreign policy approach, now adopted by his successor: “friends to all and enemy to none.”

Why the Solomon Islands election matters to China and the U.S.