Swinney expected to become Scotland’s first minister next week after Kate Forbes rules herself out – as it happened

• Kate Forbes has ruled herself out as a candidate in the Scottish National party leadership contest, clearing the way for John Swinney to become the next first minister. In response, Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, said:

This shady backroom deal won’t cover-up the bitter splits that exist within the SNP – it just applies a sticking plaster to a gaping wound.

Kate Forbes famously warned that ‘continuity won’t cut it’ when it came to Humza Yousaf, yet she’s now urging the SNP to go back to the future by imposing John Swinney – a failed former leader, tied at the hip to Nicola Sturgeon – as first minister.

Scotland deserves better than someone whose fingerprints are all over 17 years of SNP failure and secrecy. John Swinney has confirmed, via his campaign slogan, that he will ignore the public’s real priorities to obsess about independence yet again.

• Johnny Mercer, the veterans minister, has apologised to former military personnel who have been prevented from using their veterans ID in order to vote in the local elections in England on Thursday. Polls are open until 10pm. Some results will come in overnight, but most of the declarations will be during the day on Friday, or on Saturday. Eleni Courea has a guide to what results to expect when here.

• David Cameron, the foreign secretary, personally recommended that the UK should continue to sell arms to Israel two days after three British aid workers were killed in an Israeli airstrike, it has emerged.

• Ministers should have to publicly declare contact from lobbyists on WhatsApp or face a ban on its use on official government devices, a committee of MPs has said.

• Reform UK has chosen to stand by candidates who have promoted conspiracy theories online, called the climate emergency “make-believe” and expressed vaccine-sceptic views.

That is all from me for now. But we will be back at 10pm with a blog covering the results of the local elections, and all the reaction they generate. Yohannes Lowe will be writing the blog overnight, and I will be taking over at 6am tomorrow. And the blogging will then carry on into the weekend.

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For readers who have been complaining about the shortage of #dogsatpollingstations …

According to an account by John Boothman and Kieran Andrews in the Times of why Kate Forbes decided not to run for the SNP leadership, she thought she could have won but decided, given the state the party is in, unity was more important. Boothman and Andrews write:

Forbes’s allies said she believed that she could still win a contest with Swinney but understood that the party needed unity and to avoid a bruising contest similar to last year’s battle to replace Nicola Sturgeon.

Backers such as Michelle Thomson and Ivan McKee, the MSPs, were extremely keen that she ran but there has been an acceptance within her team of her reasoning for deciding not to enter the race.

“She reckoned she could have given it a good go and could have won,” said a source. “But given the scale of the challenge to the party she didn’t feel it was the right time. It’s time to unify.”

More than 700 migrants arrived in the UK after crossing the Channel in a single day – a new record for the year so far, PA Media reports. PA says:

The Home Office said 711 people made the journey in 14 boats on Wednesday, suggesting an average of 51 people per boat.

It takes the provisional total for the number of arrivals this year so far to 8,278.

Channel crossings had already hit a new record high for the first four months of a calendar year, and the latest figures show they have now jumped 34% on 2023 when 6,192 were recorded and are up 19% on the total at this stage in 2022 (6,945).

Last year 29,437 migrants arrived in the UK, down 36% on a record 45,774 arrivals in 2022.

Commenting on the figures, Stephen Kinnock, the shadow immigration minister, said:

Small boats crossings are going up under this prime minister, with a 33% increase on this time last year. There have been 10,000 crossings under the current home secretary alone and he has only been in place over the wetter winter months.

For all the government’s fanfare, we know the unaffordable and unworkable Rwanda plan won’t fix this chaos. It is costing half a billion pounds and will only cover a few hundred people a year, less than half of those who arrived on a single day this week.

James Cleverly, the home secretary, has condemned people trying to stop a coach removing asylum seekers from a hotel in Peckham, and taking them to the Bibby Stockholm barge, as students “posing for social media”. He said moving asylum seekers out of hotels was in the public interest.

Housing migrants in hotels costs the British taxpayer millions of pounds every day.

We will not allow this small group of students, posing for social media, to deter us from doing what is right for the British public.

Here is our story about the protest.

Ben Quinn has posted video from the scene within the last few minutes.

The Conservative MP Tom Hunt has said his dyspraxia caused him to misplace his photo ID ahead of today’s elections. (See 10.30am.) After his problem was reported on social media, Hunt told PA Media:

I don’t want to blame everything on my dyspraxia, but it’s a factor in my life I have to deal with.

It’s all well and good people saying we need to have more neurodiverse Members of parliament, but having a massive pile-on on them, I don’t think it’s going to encourage more people.

UPDATE: Hunt posted this on X.

I understand the interest in my emergency proxy vote today. I do tend to be bad at losing stuff. I’m also very dyspraxic. Though I don’t want to blame this on everything it does make things challenging for me and I do my best but I do lose things and today it was my passport.

Johnny Mercer, the veterans minister, has apologised to former military personnel who have been prevented from using their veterans ID in order to vote in the local elections in England, Jessica Elgot reports.

Kate Forbes is not planning to make any further comments today, or to give interviews about her decision not to stand for the SNP leadership (see 1.59pm), her office says.

2 May 202409.10 EDT

Swinney expected to become first minister next week provided no surprise candidate enters contest

Severin Carrell

Kate Forbes’ decision not to contest the leadership for the second time makes it increasingly likely that John Swinney will succeed Yousaf unopposed and will be appointed Scotland’s seventh first minister next week.

The SNP is keeping the contest open until noon on Monday 6 May on the off-chance a rebel party member puts their names forward. If no other candidate emerges, it is thought Yousaf could formally resign as first minister as early as next Tuesday, and allow Swinney to take the oath the following day.

Forbes’ decision appeared to be confirmed after a raft of her former supporters - MSPs and MPs who backed her leadership bid last year, swung behind Swinney. Those include Joanna Cherry, the SNP MP who was a leading critic of Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership, and backbench MSPs such as Kenny Gibson and David Torrance.

Kate Forbes, the former finance secretary who was narrowly beaten by Humza Yousaf in last year’s SNP leadership contest, has announced that she will not be standing this time. She has just issued this statement.

I have listened very carefully to the vision John Swinney set out this morning for Scotland.

I welcomed, and embrace, his commitment to ensure internal respect for robust and divergent debate in the party, which is the lifeblood of any democratic institution like the SNP.

I was also greatly heartened by his drive to restore a sense of courtesy and dignity to the way we conduct ourselves as a party and as a parliament. If we want to rewin the trust of the people, tone and language matter in the way we conduct ourselves.

I have also had the opportunity to speak directly with him to discuss the future of our party and our country.

Those discussions on the future of the SNP and our vision for Scotland were both frank and constructive.

What emerged was that we share a powerful common purpose for the country.

That includes a passion to revitalise our party, reach out to those who feel disempowered and reinvigorate the independence movement.

It also includes an understanding that economic growth and tackling poverty must again be key priorities, and that a just transition to ‘net zero’ must work with, and not against, our communities and businesses.

But more than that, John is clear that he is determined to return the SNP to governing from the mainstream. Competent, candid government earning the trust of the people.

That was the vision I offered in the last leadership contest, and is evidently demanded by the Scottish public.

I have therefore weighed the decision whether or not to seek the leadership of the party with great care.

Ultimately, I have concluded that the best way to deliver the urgent change Scotland needs is to join with John Swinney and advocate for that reform agenda within the Scottish government.

I can therefore today announce that I will not be seeking nomination as the next SNP leader.

John will therefore have my support and endorsement in any campaign to follow.

I sincerely thank every party member, and each of my parliamentary colleagues in Holyrood and Westminster, who have been in touch to urge me to stand.

I recognise many people might be disappointed that I will not be contesting the position of leader at this time. To those people I say this - you can be certain that delivering on the priorities for which we have, together, advocated in recent years has been at the heart of today’s decision.

It is now clear from this morning’s statement that in John Swinney we have someone who not only understands that need for reform, but has now committed to delivering it.

I look forward to playing my role in making that happen.

This announcement means John Swinney is now expected to be elected SNP leader unopposed, making him the next first minister.

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