There’s an old journalism joke that many reporters pursue this profession primarily to avoid math. Our high-school nightmares are graffitied with formulas and calculus and quadratic equations, panicked pop quizzes corrected with a harsh red pen.
But in baseball, especially, math is everywhere.
Which brings me to the Mariners.
After listening to manager Scott Servais in the home dugout before Wednesday’s matinee at T-Mobile Park, I was reminded of the conditional statements — also known as “if/then statements” — in simple geometry. Said statements tie a hypothesis to its conditional conclusion.
If [hypothesis goes here], then [conclusion goes here].
For example:
If you use an umbrella in Seattle, then locals will judge.
If a cash-strapped millennial searches home prices in Seattle, then they will feel sick.
If the Mariners receive historically dominant pitching, then they can beat anybody.
Seattle proved the latter in the past 10 days — taking two of three games against the reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers, reigning National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks and perennial bully Atlanta Braves (owners of the best record in baseball). They did so via a string of statistically improbable pitching, the likes of which we’ve rarely seen.
Apart from Wednesday’s 5-2 loss to Atlanta — in which Emerson Hancock surrendered five runs (just one earned) on five hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings — the Mariners’ starters have simultaneously excelled. Specifically, they surrendered a total of 18 earned runs in their previous 18 games, with 16 quality starts. Their 1.44 ERA over that span is the best for any single 18-game stretch in franchise history.
To dive deeper: the Mariners’ 19 quality starts (where said starter goes at least six innings and allows three earned runs or fewer) are most in the major leagues. Their staff also leads the bigs in strikeout percentage (26.3%), fewest walks per nine innings (2.4), WHIP (1.031) and opponent batting average (.208), and it ranks second in fewest hits allowed (211), ERA (2.96), strikeouts (291) and opponent OPS (.616).
Which is all to say: We’re seeing something special.
“They have really good stuff, to start with,” Mariners catcher Seby Zavala said. “They command their stuff really good. We just have a good, constant, steady mix of getting in and out and throwing strikes. We get ahead, and we pitch well when we’re ahead.”
Lately, the Mariners have often been ahead.
But not by all that much.
Since pinch-runner Julio Rodriguez was picked off first base to cement a 3-2 loss to the Cubs on April 14, the Mariners have won five consecutive series and gone 11-4 in their past 15 games. Five of those 11 wins came by two runs or fewer. In their past five games, which included three wins, Seattle scored a total of 12 runs (or 2.4 runs per game).
More broadly, the Mariners’ offense ranks 16th in the majors in home runs (31), 25th in OPS (.649), 26th in runs per game (3.58), 27th in batting average (.219), 27th in whiff percentage (28.1%), 27th in hits (220), and dead last in doubles (31, five fewer than No. 29 Miami) and strikeouts (323).
As has been stated — and stated, and stated — the Mariners parted with Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, etc., this offseason with the intention to put more balls in play.
Instead, they’re on pace for 1,688 strikeouts, 85 more than a year ago.
If Seattle’s pitching and hitting operate at opposite extremes, its defense splits the difference — slotting 18th in MLB in errors (19) and 22nd in fielding percentage (.982).
Add it up, and you get a dramatically one-dimensional group.
Even if that dimension is dominant.
“I do think, once this whole thing gets clicking, it’s going to be a lot of fun,” Servais said Wednesday after the Mariners stranded 11 runners and committed two errors. “Right now we’re leaning on the pitching and the defense, and today the defense and pitching let us down just a little bit.”
With a minuscule margin for error, “a little bit” can be lethal.
If the Mariners receive historically dominant pitching, then they can beat anybody.
If the Mariners receive merely above average pitching, will their offense emerge?
“From what I know, the pitching staff here has been good for years,” said Zavala, who has five hits and a .208 average in eight games after joining Seattle this offseason. “We always want to help the pitchers out. We’re doing the best we can.”
Not statistically. Of the Mariners’ offseason additions, designated hitter Mitch Garver is hitting .143 with three homers, seven RBI and 31 strikeouts. Third baseman Luis Urias (.147/.275/.412 slash line) and outfielder Luke Raley (.218/.246/.273) haven’t been much better.
Perhaps most impactfully, second baseman Jorge Polanco — who was traded to Seattle after posting a .269 average with 112 homers and 447 RBI in 10 seasons with the Minnesota Twins — is off to a .181/.317/.295 start with four homers, 12 RBI and 39 strikeouts in his first 31 games.
On the bright side, Polanco may be heating up, taking a four-game hitting streak into Houston this weekend. The 30-year-old second baseman is also tied for 10th in the majors with 20 walks.
“I really like the player,” Servais reiterated Wednesday. “I liked him from afar. He’s a guy we wanted to acquire for a couple years. The fact that we did, I’m really happy we got him. He’s going to be a major player for us here down the stretch. Because he’s got experience, and I feel very comfortable. I don’t get caught up in the batting average. But the quality at-bats … he’s going to hit in the top or the middle of the lineup for us, and I feel good about that.”
Individually and collectively, Servais says it’s going to click — the hits will come, the runs will come, the strikeouts will subside.
If it does, then the 17-14 Mariners won’t need a full season of unsustainably perfect pitching to mount a playoff run.
If it doesn’t?
Then fans will demand a bat at the trade deadline.
But that’s a debate for a different day.
The opinions expressed in reader comments are those of the author only and do not reflect the opinions of The Seattle Times.