The Mariners take to the road to face one of the worst teams in the American League. No, they aren’t traveling to the Bay Area or Anaheim, the normal stops for the league’s cellar-dwelling teams.
Nope, the team with the 11-20 record that’s tied for last place in the division resides in Houston.
Yes, the Astros, who have won the AL West six of the last seven seasons, and the perennial favorite to win each season. Only the White Sox at 6-25 have a worse record in the American League.
Keep in mind that Houston has won four of its past five games, including a win Thursday night against the Guardians, who are tied for the best record in the AL.
So, how have the mighty fallen?
Well, it started with being swept in a four-game series at home by the Yankees. And it hasn’t gotten much better since. They’ve also been swept in three-game series by the Royals in Kansas City, the Braves at home and the Cubs at Wrigley Field. They’ve won only two series this season, taking two of three from the Blue Jays at Minute Maid Park, which included Ronel Blanco’s no-hitter, and the recent two-game sweep of the Rockies last weekend.
In digging into the reasons for their suboptimal record, one aspect stands out ahead of most: Pitching.
Entering Thursday, the Astros ranked 26th in MLB with 1.3 FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) generated by their pitching staff. The 4.89 overall ERA is tied with the Angels for third-highest in MLB, trailing only the Rockies (6.00) and White Sox (5.15). The pitching staff’s 10.9% walk rate is second highest in MLB and highest in the AL.
The Astros’ rotation has been hampered by injuries this season. Justin Verlander (shoulder inflammation) missed the first three weeks of the season while Framber Valdez (elbow inflammation) recently returned after two-and-a-half weeks. Cristian Javier (neck strain) is making a rehab start this weekend and should return to the rotation soon, and right-hander Jose Urquidy (forearm strain) could be back in the rotation by the end of May.
Blanco has been the only bright spot. He’s 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA in five starts with 30 strikeouts and 14 walks.
Houston’s patchwork rotation has posted a 4.98 ERA and generated a 1.4 fWAR this season. Their starters are averaging 5.0 innings pitched, which is second-lowest in the AL and 4.44 walks per nine innings, which is the highest in all of baseball.
The retooled bullpen has been overused and underperformed. The Astros also lost Kendall Graveman for the year (shoulder surgery), while Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and breaking-ball specialist Phil Maton all left as free agents.
Houston made an offseason splash to offset the losses, signing lefty Josh Hader to a five-year, $95 million contract to serve as the closer, bumping Ryan Pressly to the setup role. But the bullpen has generated a -0.2 WAR while posting a 4.98 ERA, blowing seven saves (third-most in MLB) and taking 10 losses.
Hader is 1-2 with a 6.39 ERA and two saves. He’s allowed 13 hits and nine earned runs in 12 2/3 innings pitched. Pressly is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA in 14 games. He’s allowed eight earned runs on 16 hits.
Have the Mariners figured out how to beat the Astros, particularly at Minute Maid?
After so many seasons of finding new and frustrating ways to lose to Houston, the Mariners broke through in 2023. They went 9-4 vs. the Astros in the season series, outscoring them 64-32. In seven games at Minute Maid, Seattle was 6-1, outscoring the Astros 39-15. Seattle pitchers held Houston to one run or fewer in four of those games.
The Astros actually had a losing record (39-42) at home last season, which was unusual.
That success vs. Houston, which started to build in 2022, forged a noticeable confidence in the players.
Here are a few things to watch for the first series between the two rivals:
Will Julio Rodriguez break through in a place he’s had success at?
The Mariners have been patiently waiting and hoping for Rodriguez to get going at the plate. He comes into the series with a .270 average and .328 slugging percentage with four doubles, a homer, 11 RBI, seven stolen bases, six walks and 40 strikeouts.
He’s had four- and five-game stretches of solid at-bats and multi-hit games. But he has only one homer and has been inconsistent with runners in scoring position.
Playing against the Astros in the emotionally charged and competitive games brought out the best in him last season.
A year ago, Rodriguez played in seven games at Minute Maid Field and had 13 hits in 35 plate appearances with two doubles, a homer, three RBI, five stolen bases, a walk and nine strikeouts.
A few fly balls into the Crawford Boxes might prove useful for him.
Really, the whole offense could use a jolt in Houston. The Mariners are averaging 3.58 runs per game, which is the fifth-lowest in MLB, and are hitting .219 with 31 homers and a whopping 323 strikeouts, which is the most in MLB. Their 28.7% strikeout rate is something that manager Scott Servais and the hitting coaches have addressed. But it’s only shown minimal signs of slowing down.
Houston’s mighty offense vs. Mariners’ dominant pitching
The Mariners’ pitching ranks among the league’s best in nearly every statistical category. They’ve shut down quality lineups like the Rangers and Braves. And their method for success seems to be opponent-neutral.
But the Astros can still hit and score runs. They are averaging 4.47 runs per game and come into the series with the core of the starting lineup healthy. Last season, the Mariners benefited in a handful games with either Jose Altuve or Yordan Alvarez or Kyle Tucker out of the lineup due to injuries.
The first five hitters in the Astros lineup — Altuve, Alex Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker and Jeremy Peña are still as good as any in baseball and provide plenty of problems for opposing pitchers. The lineup isn’t quite as deep as in years past. Jose Abreu was optioned to Houston’s spring-training complex to figure out his swing, but catcher Yainer Diaz is a much more consistent hitter than his predecessor, Martin Maldonado.
Will the bad blood remain?
Some of the names and faces have changed, players like Neris have left, but the mutual dislike between the two teams remains. The Mariners felt like former manager Dusty Baker helped instigate some of the animosity, accusing Mariners pitchers of hitting his batters with pitches on purpose, specifically when Logan Gilbert smoked Jose Altuve in the rib cage with a fastball two years ago. Baker intimated that pitchers were protecting their own teammates by throwing inside on Seattle hitters.
Baker has retired and has been replaced by Joe Espada. But don’t expect the animosity to diminish. He was on the Astros’ staff the past few years and was part of the jawing between the two teams. Many of the veteran Astros players have a healthy dislike for Servais, believing he was the one who was ordering pitchers to hit batters. They also disliked some of the comments made to the media about the cheating scandal and how they play.
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