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The shortest-priced horses in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/27/kentucky-derby-odds-post-positions/" target=_blank>Saturday’s Kentucky Derby field</a>, Fierceness (5-2 on the morning line) and Sierra Leone (3-1), got bad news during the post position draw.

Fierceness, a one-dimensional front-runner, drew post No. 17 out of 20, requiring him to expend extra energy to engage with what should be a crowded first flight of horses or sit back and hope to get a perfect trip from farther back. Neither strategy is ideal for a horse that has never trailed by more than a half-length at the first call in his three career victories.

Sierra Leone, a closer, probably will have to drop back after trying to avoid the flurry toward the inside rail and work out a trip in which he can go outside to pass a majority of horses late or go against the running style that has made him successful and try his luck going wire to wire. Neither scenario is ideal for a winning run in the first leg of the Triple Crown.

My advice? Bypass both and focus on No. 7 Honor Marie, a promising 20-1 long shot on the morning line who has shown potential for success at Churchill Downs.

Trained by Whit Beckman — a former assistant to Todd Pletcher, Eoin Harty and Chad Brown — Honor Marie broke his maiden at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old in September and then won the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes two months later, seamlessly transitioning from the six-furlong sprint to the 1 1/16 mile route, the latter showcasing his late-running ability over two turns. A lackluster start as a 3-year-old (a fifth-place finish in the Grade II Risen Star Stakes) was forgotten after his close second in the Grade II Louisiana Derby.

More importantly, his speed figure in that final prep race (99) beat his career best as a 2-year-old, indicating another step forward is imminent. That this is his third start following a layoff — a favorite angle of potential improvement in handicapping circles — doesn’t hurt, either.

In addition to overall speed, Honor Marie finished the final three-eighths of a mile at the Louisiana Derby in 37.01 seconds, showing a closing speed that has been a hallmark of previous Kentucky Derby winners. Nine of the past 12 Kentucky Derby winners (and 19 of the past 26) finished the final three-eighths of a mile in their final prep race in less than 38 seconds. Many Kentucky Derby winners — 20 of the past 26 — covered the final eighth of a mile in their final prep race in 13 seconds or less. Honor Marie meets that standard as well.

Honor Marie’s pedigree is also encouraging. His sire, Honor Code, was a champion older dirt male who won the Grade I Metropolitan Handicap and Grade I Whitney Stakes. Honor Code’s progeny, including Honor A. P. and Max Player, have excelled in high-profile races such as the Grade I Santa Anita Derby and the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup. Honor Marie’s dam, Dame Marie, is a Smart Strike offspring who produced winners ranging in distance from 1 1/16 miles to 1⅛ miles. Smart Strike’s lineage also includes two-time horse of the year Curlin and 2007 Eclipse champion turf male English Channel, horses known for stamina and classy race wins.

If it rains Saturday — and the forecast is calling for <a href="https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Louisville+KY?canonicalCityId=dbc1706f8b111ffb1a22e14ac2e5464c06319ad85c9ebcb51d6921e6e5aef002" target=_blank>scattered thunderstorms</a> — it is worth noting that Honor Marie finished second at Churchill Downs over a sloppy track in October and his sire’s record over wet tracks is 84 for 505 this year (a 17 percent win rate). Jockey Ben Curtis is 7 for 37 (a 19 percent win rate) in 2024 over wet tracks, with a flat-bet profit of 42 cents per $2 wagered.

Finally, this horse is an overachiever, having won his maiden race at 14-1 and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at 9-1. His second-place finish at the Louisiana Derby came at 8-1 odds. (Beckman has also returned a flat-bet profit of five cents per $2 wagered on 70 dirt races this year.)

Everything is here for Honor Marie to have a successful run for the roses, and I would be willing to place a win wager on him at a price of 4-1 or higher.

There are three other horses I would like to highlight: No. 4 Catching Freedom (8-1 on the morning line), No. 1 Dornoch (20-1) and No. 8 Just a Touch (10-1). They all feature in my <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/05/02/kentucky-derby-2024-trifecta-superfecta-picks-bets/" target=_blank>trifecta and superfecta Derby strategy</a>.

Catching Freedom’s winning performance in the Louisiana Derby — when Honor Marie finished second — was above average; he closed in the stretch despite a slow pace to the three-quarter-mile mark and average final speed figure. Usually such race shapes are won by front-runners, but Catching Freedom, a closer, prevailed instead. His pedigree also boasts a ton of inherited speed while getting stamina from his sire line via Constitution and Tapit.

<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/05/01/jayson-werth-dornoch-kentucky-derby/" target=_blank>Dornoch drew the rail</a>, a post that hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986, yet it suits his front-running style. His three wins — a maiden route, the Grade II Remsen Stakes in the mud and the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes — came in wire-to-wire fashion, and it doesn’t make sense for trainer Danny Gargan to change anything now.

“I don’t think it’s the kiss of death,” <a href="https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/news/kentucky-derby-and-kentucky-oaks-post-position-draw-quotes/#:~:text=CONNECTIONS%20QUOTES%20FROM%20THE%202024,what%20it%20used%20to%20be." target=_blank>Gargan said after the draw</a>. “There’s no speed on our outside, so hopefully he’ll break running and we’ll put him on the front end and see how it goes. We planned on keeping his face clean. Now we’ll keep it real clean.”

Just a Touch, another grandson of Tapit, has just one victory in three career starts, a maiden sprint in the slop, but don’t let his lack of seasoning scare you away. He has two second-place finishes in graded stakes races and some of the fastest early fractions in the field. His most recent velocity from the gate to four furlongs was 56.4 feet per second, about two-fifths of a second faster than Dornoch, who has the second-highest velocity out of the gate in this field. My guess is he doesn’t engage in a speed duel with some of the others and instead conserves that energy for a later push.

Neil Greenberg is a staff writer with The Washington Post whose beat is sports analytics. His analysis and insight can be found in the sports section, where he covers the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB as well as college football and basketball.

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