5 Boom-or-Bust Prospects in 2024 NBA Draft

Boom-or-bust NBA draft prospects are perceived to have high ceilings and low floors.

Best-case outcomes for the following five players could result in All-Star appearances or high-quality NBA starters. However, questions about their skill sets and weaknesses create worrisome worst-case scenarios relative to where they're projected to be selected.

The bar is naturally set higher for projected top picks, who can be labeled as busts even if they last 10 years as role players.

Boom outcome

The No. 1 overall discussion last October included Matas Buzelis. His 6'10" size, shotmaking versatility, creation flashes and bounce come together to form a coveted archetype similar to that of Orlando Magic forward Franz Wagner.

Buzelis lost some support during the season due to inconsistent execution, but his wide skill set was evident. He still has upside to reach if those flashes become regular occurrences after improving his shooting percentages, tightening his handle and strengthening his frame.

Buzelis scored in different ways for Ignite. His confidence spiked during transition possessions, when he was more comfortable handling the ball in space and playing above the rim. High school tape showed a comfortable three-point shooter, while Ignite tape showed a capable one. His shot has room to grow, and he missed a ton of open looks that could easily start falling more often over time.

Buzelis' ability to hit speciality and counter jumpers like fallaways or improvised one-handers was also on display.

His athleticism also popped at both ends throughout the season. Buzelis picked up a number of finishes from above the rim that highlighted effortless elevation. He recorded on-ball blocks that showed impressive foot speed and a quick jump, too.

Buzelis can potentially check a lot of boxes to create on-ball mismatches and off-ball value. The possibility of his development stalling and him not having a signature strength is the big fear.

Bust outcome

There isn't anything right now that NBA teams can confidently bank on translating.

Buzelis shot only 27.3 percent from three and didn't deliver signs of a pull-up game. His handle in the half court was not very functional for creating, particularly when he was pressured. He struggled to blow by, and contact could knock throw him off too easily.

There were too many games where he simply blended in and failed to show aggression or assertiveness.

Buzelis is more of a compelling idea right now than a prospect with convincing results. Drafting him early will likely mean using extra guesswork when assessing/predicting his on-ball and shooting development.

Boom outcome

Kyshawn George popped instantly at Miami with his 6'8" size, handles and shooting range. His positional tools and skill set spell mismatch from the 2-guard spot, where he split time this year playing in ball-screen situations and spotting up.

He's on a short list of freshmen/sophomores at his size or bigger to finish a season averaging at least 10 three-point attempts per 100 minutes with an assist percentage over 15.0. (That list includes Paul George.) George also shot 40.8 percent from deep, looking comfortable with his shot and ability to release over the top.

Still, George reaching his upside will be heavily dependent on his off-the-dribble work, which has strengths and limitations. He's fluid handling the ball and changing speeds. At his size, he takes long strides and gets extreme extension relative to who's typically guarding him. Though George wasn't the most efficient two-point shooter or playmaker, he clearly has untapped on-ball creation potential.

There was enough promising defensive tape showing disruptive arms to project a two-way impact as well.

Bust outcome

The main worry with George revolves around his severe lack of explosiveness. In 31 games, he converted only 24 shots at the rim and attempted 27 free throws. It can appear like he has weights tied to his feet when elevating for a finish.

George doesn't have the pull-up or touch shots right now to compensate, having shot only 29.2 percent on dribble jumpers. He made only one runner the entire year.

Being a plus shooter for his team will be a must. As accurate as he was at Miami, it's still noting that George was merely average or just capable from three during his previous years overseas.

Boom outcome

Imaginations can run wild with Tidjane Salaun. He's a potential lottery pick with 6'9" size, plus athletic traits, 68 made threes this past season, defensive mobility and a 19th birthday after the draft.

A boom outcome may not result in All-Star appearances, but he has premiere three-and-D potential tied to his shotmaking, measurements and movement.

Salaun is most comfortable right now releasing his high-arcing three-ball spotting up, though occasional flashes of pull-ups and movement shooting hint at some extra shot diversity. He also has 35 dunks, which is mostly a reflection of his open-court finishing and cutting tools.

With the frame of a power forward, Salaun has shown he can slide in a stance and blow up ball screens. NBA coaches may want to use him as a big-wing defender. He's also shown glimpses of attacking closeouts, but he'll need to need to continue tightening his handle and working on touch shots to add an extra layer of scoring to his half-court offense.

Bust outcome

At this stage, Salaun is still highly dependent on catch-and-shoot opportunities. Despite his increase in jump-shot makes this year, he's still at only 33.0 percent and very streaky.

Aside from picking up easy finishes, the rest of Salaun's game is super raw. He's a combined 18-of-71 when he puts the ball down in spot-up situations. He's converting a red-flag 47.6 percent of his layups, and he's only 4-of-27 on runners and one-handers around the lane.

While his job isn't to create for Cholet, 44 assists in 49 games reflects a mindset focused strictly on finishing plays. If no new skills emerge, a lot will be riding on Salaun being a reliable, high-volume three-point shooter.

Boom outcome

Consistent production overseas made Nikola Topić easy to spot early. Still, he's in the conversation for top point guard of the draft thanks to his 6'6" size, passing instincts that translate, unique finishing prowess and signs of shooting potential.

We continue to see athletically limited NBA ball-handling prospects blast through their projected ceilings with things like skill, feel, footwork and shotmaking. Topić could be next in line. Before transferring to Red Star and injuring his knee, he was averaging 18.6 points and 6.9 assists in the Adriatic League, finding success creating advantages, angles around the basket and rhythm looks for teammates.

In 16 games with Mega MIS, he converted 77 shots at the rim and 68.1 percent of his attempts. He has a knack for manipulating or surprising defenders with his first move and change of speed. And the way he's able to use his body and shield his man on layups feels difficult to teach.

Vision and passing skill make a 6'6" guard who's frequently in the lane even more dangerous and useful for playmaking. He reads the game at a high level, and he uses his height and length to execute passes in traffic.

Shooting will be clearly be a key swing skill, and his three-point percentages over the years haven't been great. But he's still made 24 threes in 20 games this year, and he's been over 85.0 percent from the free-throw line each of the past three years.

Bust outcome

The big questions for Topić ask about the translatability of his self creation, shooting development and overall reliance on getting to the rim.

While he shows confidence stepping into pull-ups, he isn't making them at a great rate. A 30.0 three-point percentage and clear preference for driving will call for NBA defenses to drop and sag in pick-and-roll coverage. There have also been no real signs of mid-range or floater, a shot that seems like a must for NBA point guards.

Defensively, Topić struggles to contain and provide physical resistance. He's going to get targeted early in his career. And if he winds up a negative shooter and liability defensively, he could have a tough time justifying the draft range he's expected to be selected in.

Boom outcome

The highs and lows from Kel'el Ware have divided scouts for the past few years.

Buyers will believe Ware's standout physical talent and shot-making skill outweighs inconsistency or motor questions of a 19-20-year-old. A boom outcome would come from him optimizing his tools/athleticism for finishing and rim protection and executing his post shots and spot-up threes with more regularity.

Those are obvious musts to maximize his potential, but Ware also has to improve his ability to play against stronger bigs and contact. He has to show he can remain engaged in games when the offense isn't running through him, too.

When it is and his confidence starts to pump, we've seen him unload offensively. He went for at least 25 points in three of four games heading into this year's postseason. Keeping the ball high above his head in the paint, Ware can be difficult to challenge on short finishes off rolls or low post-ups.

Ware has shown he can square up, rise and fire from the elbows and short corners. He made 17-of-40 threes, and when defenders feel threatened by Ware's range, he's looked capable of putting the ball down and getting to the rack off long strides.

Ware's height, length and mobility should be highly effective for shot-blocking and pick-and-roll defense in the NBA. A best-case outcome could result in him improving a team's interior defense while giving it high-percentage finishing, self-creation from the post and occasional extra spacing with his developing range.

Bust outcome

Ware shot 2-of-10 against Connecticut and Donovan Clingan, 2-of-8 against Auburn and Johni Broome, 3-of-12 against Kansas and Hunter Dickinson and 2-of-6 during Indiana's first matchup against Purdue and Zach Edey.

He did not fare well against the centers with NBA physical tools. And while he was far more productive and assertive this season, he's always had to answer questions about toughness and motor.

Ware has the ability to play big against weaker defenders, but he can also struggle to gain position against stronger ones. Contact can too easily affect his shot at times, and it results in lower-percentage hooks and fallaways too far from the basket.

The worst-case outcome has Ware having trouble creating advantages in the post, finishing through contact and making jump shots consistently.