‘What Steve did here was huge … we are trying to improve this legacy, which is amazing,” Nuno Espírito Santo said when he was appointed as Steve Cooper’s successor. At that stage Forest were 17th; 18 matches and 16 points later, they are in the same position but with added peril.
Nuno has three games to save Nottingham Forest, starting with a trip to Bramall Lane on Saturday. Victory is a must against Sheffield United, the worst team in the Premier League, to avoid wasting Cooper’s platform and further damaging his own reputation.
Following in Cooper’s footsteps was always going to be an issue for Nuno because his predecessor was adored by the supporters. Cooper made great efforts to ingratiate himself at Forest with numerous gestures and comments. Few have made a more positive impact at the City Ground since Brian Clough’s heyday, making the fans believe again. Nuno, for his many positives, does not have the same public persona and has been unable to form a natural bond with the supporters, meaning his talking needs to be done on the pitch.
There is a constant air of chaos at the club. Over his four-and-a-half months in charge, Nuno has had to deal with a four-point deduction, the Everton VAR controversy and the club’s owner storming to the side of the pitch after a game to remonstrate with the referee. And these are just the moments that have been played out in public.
When Nuno started pining for a return to the Premier League, before he left Al-Ittihad in November, he did not envisage Nottingham as his destination but his close relationship with the super-agent Jorge Mendes helped grease the wheels once it was known there was no way back for Cooper. Nuno’s fine work at Wolves was quickly forgotten in his 17-game spell in charge at Tottenham, and Forest offered the chance to remind Europe of his capabilities.
In his second game Nuno oversaw an impressive 3-1 win at Newcastle, with Chris Wood scoring a hat-trick, doubling his tally for the season. This was followed by Forest defeating Manchester United at home, leaving those who doubted the decision to sack Cooper being quickly won round.
Since then Forest have won twice in 15 league matches. One problem Nuno inherited from Cooper, and has failed to rectify, is the ineptitude in defending set pieces, resulting in a league-high 23 goals conceded from dead-ball situations. Fans are frustrated and bewildered that nothing has changed. Simon Rusk was hired to work under Cooper as a set-piece coach but has been sidelined since Nuno joined.
Four wins and four draws do not reflect well on Nuno. Dig a little deeper and there are positive signs; metrics in every department from back to front have improved and their xP [expected points] is 44 without the deduction, though the stark reality is they have 26 points. Forest’s xG [expected goals] against is the fifth-best in the Premier League in the period since Nuno took over, suggesting they are defensively sound, but only four clubs have conceded more than their 62 this season.
Nuno quickly decided he wanted a new goalkeeper, a third No 1 of the season, after reviewing the capabilities and competence of Matt Turner and Odysseas Vlachodimos, who had not lived up to expectations after a litany of errors. Matz Sels arrived after a worldwide search. The Belgian signed at the end of the winter window and has offered a more calming presence.
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The squad have bought into Nuno’s ideas and rate the former Wolves manager highly for the structure he has brought. The attacking play has improved compared with the final months of the Cooper era, Forest going from scoring one goal per game to almost 1.4. Nuno has been eager to free Morgan Gibbs-White to provide greater penetration and to play with two wingers, which is why Gio Reyna was signed in January, even though the American has made a limited impact.
Nuno lost a number of key players to the Africa Cup of Nations, with Moussa Niakhaté, Willy Boly, Ola Aina, Ibrahim Sangaré and Cheikhou Kouyaté absent for a month. Last season’s top scorer, Taiwo Awoniyi, has been hampered by injury, making seven league appearances under Nuno, including four starts, and completing 90 minutes only once. Admittedly, Wood has been an able deputy, scoring nine in 13 league appearances, but a fit Awoniyi would have been a valuable asset, and he could return on Saturday. He scored six goals in the final four matches last season to confirm Forest’s top-flight status.
Boly returned from Afcon injured and has featured twice since the turn of the year. He formed part of a back five against Manchester City last weekend, putting in an impressive performance in defeat by the title challengers. The match, although lost, showed flexibility on Nuno’s part, the formation changed for the situation Forest faced. Before that, he had been rigid with the setup, regardless of opposition.
Nuno needs the underlying positives to come to the fore in the next three weeks. Without that, his reputation will take another monumental hit and Forest could well find themselves back where Cooper found them. A legacy of hope, lost.