Michael Penix Jr. and the Most Surprising NFL Draft Picks Since 2010

Even though prospect rankings look different around the league, consensus expectations begin to take shape for every NFL draft.

Once in a while, that results in a truly massive surprise.

The opening two rounds are prime territory for these shockers. Sometimes, a player is picked far higher than anticipated. In other situations, it's a product of a team addressing a position of perceived minimal need—read: adding a quarterback when it seems unnecessary.

While the choices are subjective, they're all centered on one of those two factors during an NFL draft since 2010.

Fast-forward to today, and Tyson Alualu is getting the last laugh.

However, the Cal product had garnered very little first-round attention in 2010. It was a downright jaw-dropper when the Jacksonville Jaguars used the No. 10 overall pick on the defensive tackle.

Alualu immediately became a key piece of the Jacksonville defense and appeared in 110 games for the Jaguars. He went to the Pittsburgh Steelers for six years and most recently played for the Detroit Lions. Alualu has collected 420 tackles in a long NFL career.

The interesting connection is the Jaguars had been linked to Tim Tebow, a local kid and college football icon at Florida.

Leading up to the draft, concerns about his throwing motion and true potential nudged Tebow down the board. Still, he landed with the Denver Broncos at No. 25, who packaged three picks to get back into the first round.

Tebow had a memorable year of comeback victories in 2011, but that would be his lone season as a primary starter.

The good news is Bruce Irvin wasn't a flop for the Seattle Seahawks. In the moment, however, they caught us by surprise.

Irvin mostly garnered Day 2 projections but ended up hearing his name called with the 15th pick in 2012. Seattle chose him over higher-rated pass-rushers such as Quinton Coples, Melvin Ingram, Chandler Jones and Whitney Mercilus, among several others.

While his career has been relatively up-and-down, Irvin has spent more than a decade in the NFL—which is no small accomplishment. He's played for seven teams, collected 56.5 sacks and won a Super Bowl with Seattle.

(Oh, another confusing pick from the Seahawks in 2012? Russell Wilson at No. 75. He worked out for them, too.)

As the 2013 NFL draft arrived, the Buffalo Bills needed a quarterback. The solution seemed like Ryan Nassib, who played under new Buffalo coach Doug Marrone at Syracuse from 2009 to 2012.

Turns out, the answer was EJ Manuel.

Marrone and Co. surprisingly chose the Florida State quarterback over Nassib—and Geno Smith, for that matter. Buffalo even added to the drama, trading down from the eighth pick to the 16th slot.

Unfortunately for Manuel and the Bills, the partnership failed. He started 10 games as a rookie, but Marrone benched Manuel early the next season. The young QB never reclaimed a starting role and, in hindsight, said he wasn't given a chance to grow.

I have a special place in my heart for kickers. Also, no specialist is ever worth an early selection in the NFL draft.

Apparently, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers failed to learn that lesson after the Oakland Raiders used a first-round pick on Sebastian Janikowski in 2000. He kicked for nearly two decades, but Oakland wasted its most valuable choice on a position of lesser value.

Roberto Aguayo—who attended Florida State, as did Janikowski—certainly tested that theory in 2016.

While at FSU, Aguayo was automatic within 40 yards. He never missed an extra point in 198 tries and drilled a 50-yard field goal in each of his three seasons at FSU. That consistency convinced the Bucs to trade up and stunningly add Aguayo in the second round.

He lasted one season in Tampa.

Having a succession plan at quarterback is both a necessary thing and delicate process for NFL teams.

On one hand, an organization is always trying to build for the future. On the other, executives are typically working in a manner to avoid upsetting the most impactful player on a roster.

Well, the Green Bay Packers didn't follow that guideline in 2020. They surprised longtime starter Aaron Rodgers—who himself had joined Green Bay as an unexpected first-rounder when Brett Favre was still on the Packers—with a trade up for Jordan Love at 26th overall.

The second round featured another shock; the Philadelphia Eagles brought in Jalen Hurts despite a resurgent year from Carson Wentz.

Sometimes, these things work out.

Love had a promising first season as Green Bay's starter in 2023, while Hurts guided the Eagles to an NFC crown in 2022. Although the recent campaign ended in dismal fashion for Philly, he's guided the Birds to the postseason in all three years as QB1.

It's impossible to craft this list without Cole Strange.

When the New England Patriots used the 29th overall pick on the Chattanooga lineman in 2022, even he didn't believe it.

Consider this from Strange's father, Greg: "[Cole] said, 'Sir, I don't mean to be disrespectful at all, but I've gotta know because I've got some crazy friends. Is this a prank?' The guy said, 'Hold on just a second.' And then Bill Belichick got on the phone and of course, unless you've been under a rock for the last 20 years, you know Bill Belichick's voice."

Strange had been viewed as a potential Day 2 selection—and more likely in the third round than the second.

Instead, he didn't make it through the opening night of the draft.

The reality that Michael Penix Jr. went eighth overall—while not entirely jarring—was wild enough. He'd probably find a first-round home, but it might not be until the 20s or possibly the 30s.

Even if someone took the Washington quarterback early, however, the Atlanta Falcons were hardly on the radar. Penix had been heavily connected to the Las Vegas Raiders, along with regular mentions of the Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings.

After all, the Falcons made a splashy free-agent move and signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year contract. Why would they bother with a QB in the first round?

Joke's on us, I guess.

Atlanta has taken an enormous gamble on Penix, and there's no question the decision will be scrutinized in the coming years.