Discussion: What are realistic expectations for the Detroit Lions’ 2024 rookies?

Now that the Detroit Lions have their NFL Draft class wrapped up, we can look ahead to the roles these rookies could potentially play in 2024.

Last year, my expectations for the Lions rookies were a mixed bag. Jahmyr Gibbs had a rookie season to rival that of Alvin Kamara, earning himself a Pro Bowl nod. This was on the higher end of my projection, as Kamara was a high bar that Gibbs still managed to reach. I had projected the other Lions’ first-rounder, Jack Campbell, to play around 600 snaps on defense, and while he exceeded that goal with 745 snaps, the projection of him developing alongside Alex Anzalone and Derrick Barnes was an accurate one.

The Lions nailed their second round last year, exceeding everyone’s expectations. The goal I had in mind for Sam LaPorta was a 500-yard campaign, reasonable for most rookie tight ends. Yet LaPorta quickly proved himself to be far from the norm, recording nearly 900 receiving yards and an All-Pro title. Brian Branch, meanwhile, was a tough projection due to the depth in the secondary, but he quickly earned himself a critical role in the Lions defense.

Round 3 was quieter for the Lions. Hendon Hooker was essentially a redshirt for his rookie season as expected. Brodric Martin, however, was also minimally involved to the tune of just 28 snaps on defense. Martin lost snaps to Isaiah Buggs and Benito Jones, though he was more of a project than a ready-made NFL talent. Of the remaining late-round draft picks, Colby Sorsdal played the most thanks to injuries along the offensive line, earning himself three starts. Antoine Green, meanwhile, played 12 games as a rookie but only turned it into a single 2-yard catch.

How will the Lions’ 2024 rookie shape up?

Today’s Question of the Day is:

What are your expectations for the Detroit Lions’ 2024 rookies?

My answer: Let’s look at each prospect.

CB Terrion Arnold: He is the best bet to win the CB2 spot out of training camp, but with Amik Robertson and fellow rookie Ennis Rakestraw Jr. also in contention, it is a title he will have to win on his own merit. Last season, CB1 Cameron Sutton played over 1000 regular season snaps, while the next-closest corner was Jerry Jacobs at 743 snaps per PFF. Given that Jacobs played just 13 regular season games, exceeding that total is more than reasonable for the Lions’ CB2. If Arnold wins the starting job, he could see around 900 snaps in his rookie season. Interceptions are hard to predict, but three would be a good starting point.

CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr.: The same logic that was applied to Arnold can be applied to Rakestraw if he wins the CB2 spot. Despite Arnold’s draft status, Rakestraw can realistically win the job if he outperforms the first-rounder. Entering training camp, Rakestraw is most likely to see action as the top reserve defensive back or get looks at nickel when Brian Branch is playing a more traditional safety role. Projecting Rakestraw’s playing time is difficult due to all the competition, so I think 500 snaps is a reasonable bar to set.

OL Giovanni Manu: While Manu is one of the most intriguing prospects to be drafted by the Lions in recent memory, he is also a prospect who could never see the field in his rookie season. It remains unclear if Manu will play tackle or guard in the NFL (and for how long), but he might not be the top reserve at either position. Colby Sorsdal, Dan Skipper, and Kayode Awosika each have professional experience, in stark contrast to Manu’s time at UBC in Canada’s U Sports. The idea of him as OL6 in jumbo sets alongside Penei Sewell is a fun idea, but I think he could be a frequent inactive—as of now, I do not believe he is game-ready. This was always a move for beyond 2024, do not panic.

RB/S Sione Vaki: Jeremy Reisman is most excited to see Vaki, and for good reason. How often do you see a safety-turned-running-back prospect get drafted? Vaki seems slated for the offensive backfield over the secondary, but I think his biggest role in 2024 will be on special teams. Vaki should be the frontrunner for the lead kickoff spot, a potentially exciting role given the new kickoff rules. Couple that with his experience as a safety, and the Lions could very well be getting a multifaceted special teams weapon.

Craig Reynolds had 135 snaps on offense and 208 snaps on special teams last season, so Vaki could see a similar share of snaps—and if things get dire, he might even see a few on defense. Want to get crazy? No NFL player has recorded a rushing touchdown, receiving touchdown, kickoff return touchdown, and interception return touchdown in their career since the 1960s. Vaki is one of the rare players that has a shot at it—we can dream.

DT Mehki Wingo: You never want to overestimate a sixth-round selection, but it’s hard not to get excited about Wingo or see his path to the lineup. The Lions have been in dire need of a pass rushing interior lineman to pair with Alim McNeill. Levi Onwuzurike has not panned out thus far in his career, meaning Wingo has a strong chance to earn some snaps on defense. Though Brodric Martin will certainly see a larger role in his second season, I think Wingo could see anywhere from 200 to 400 snaps in his rookie season, perhaps more if his nose for the quarterback develops faster than expected. If he can add two to four sacks, that would be fantastic.

OG Christian Mahogany: Much like Wingo, Mahogany was viewed as a steal in the sixth round and could very well be a starter down the road. Yet, much like Manu, I am doubtful he will earn the top reserve spot in his rookie season. The Lions are not in a position where they need to rely on most of their rookies right away. I think Sorsdal will be the top backup at both tackle and guard.

As mentioned in my way-too-early 53-man roster prediction, the debate surrounding an OL9 will rage throughout training camp—would the Lions feel comfortable enough rolling with just Sorsdal, Manu, and Mahogany in reserve? If a player like Skipper or Awosika makes the roster, then I think they would get the nod ahead of Manu or Mahogany. That being said, Mahogany might be more pro-ready than Manu, so he could slide ahead of him on the guard depth chart.

What roles are you expecting from the Lions’ 2024 draft class? Let us know in the comments below.