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Matthew Stockman

The 2024 quarterback draft class was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/25/nfl-draft-live-updates-picks-analysis/" target=_blank>as historic</a> as some expected, and its unprecedented nature — with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/25/nfl-draft-caleb-williams-jayden-daniels/" target=_blank>six of the first 12 selections</a> spent on passers — has already focused attention in scouting circles on <i>next</i> year’s options.

Specifically, there was plenty of chatter after this NFL draft about Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders, son of Hall of Fame cornerback Deion Sanders, who also serves as his bombastic coach with the Buffaloes. Opinions vary, at least to some degree, about where Sanders would have slotted among his peers this spring had he left school to enter the pro fray.

But the same general managers and evaluators <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/12/09/2024-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-first-round/" target=_blank>who told me months ago</a> that the 2024 class would feature six first-round quarterbacks were in agreement that Sanders would have stood up comparatively well against Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye et al., and those evaluators are projecting Sanders will go much higher next year than mock drafts are predicting.

“He was [the top QB] for me if he came out this year,” said a longtime NFL evaluator whose scouting reports about the 2024 class proved salient. (He spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the proprietary nature of scouting observations.) “You have to manage him a little differently, and Deion is going to be heavily involved … so you have to be prepared to deal with that bulls---. But I love watching that kid play. He’s a born winner.”

One NFL general manager, whose team could be in the quarterback draft market in 2025, said: “Absolutely, he was a first-round pick. Absolutely. There would have been seven [taken in the first round]. We obviously didn’t do as much work on him as the other quarterbacks once he announced he wasn’t coming out, but he would have been in the top three [quarterbacks] for us this year, I think, had he gone through the entire process. He probably would have been up there with Williams and Daniels.”

One agent who was involved in recruiting many members of the 2024 quarterback class and is preparing for the same in 2025 said: “He would have been under serious consideration with Washington [at the second pick] if he doesn’t stay in school. I honestly believe that, based on some of what I picked up through this process. This kid can really play. He’s got good accuracy. He can let it rip. He’s not a sprinter, but he’s more than athletic enough. He’s got some charisma to him. He has strong leadership traits. He’s more than tough enough.

“Now, his father is a total loose cannon, and this kid goes against Bill Parcells’s doctrine about the celebrity quarterback. … But that’s becoming more and more antiquated anyway, isn’t it?”

And a top talent evaluator for a team that <i>did</i> select a quarterback in 2024 said of Sanders: “I really like him, man. I really do. He can play. He was right up there in the top three [quarterbacks] for me. I would have been stacking him right there with Daniels or Maye. Definitely would have had him before [Michael] Penix, [J.J.] McCarthy or [Bo] Nix. If this kid comes out, he’s going in the top five or six picks. He could be the first pick of this draft.”

Undoubtedly, 11 months from now, the narrative about Sanders being a late riser on draft boards will be percolating, as happened with McCarthy and Penix this year. The reality is keen evaluators already saw both as top-half-of-the-first-round picks months ago, as they do with Sanders now. Barring injury or a dramatic turn for the worse, Prime Time 2.0 will launch in a very big way.

Early as it may be, consensus is already forming about teams that could be in the market for a quarterback next spring.

The free agent class looks threadbare — especially if Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence get extensions as expected. In addition to Sanders, Georgia’s Carson Beck and Texas’s Quinn Ewers are on the path to serious top-of-the-first-round potential.

Every evaluator I spoke with was shocked the New York Giants sat out this draft’s quarterback derby. “They must really love their roster, but I don’t,” the GM said. “I don’t think they can win with that group and Daniel Jones.” The general belief is it was Maye or nothing for the Giants at the most critical position, and after the Patriots stayed at No. 3 and took Maye, the Giants wound up with wide receiver Malik Nabers at No. 6.

Another GM agreed that “you can kind of see the market already. Giants. Jets. Raiders. Broncos because I don’t think they’re totally sold on Nix. I’d put Carolina up there, too.” Yes, that’s despite the Panthers <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/04/27/bryce-young-no-1-pick/" target="_blank">drafting Bryce Young</a> with the No. 1 pick just a year ago.

Other evaluators I talked with believed Young has at least a chance of succeeding in Year 2, but they weren’t overly enthusiastic about it. And few seemed bullish on Aaron Rodgers’s tenure with the Jets ending well, setting up a potential reboot with a new quarterback in 2025.

Mike Stewart

The hottest quarterback rumor of 2025 is already being whispered in industry circles after the Atlanta Falcons <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/26/nfl-draft-first-round-takeaways/" target=_blank>drafted Penix eighth overall</a> just months after giving Kirk Cousins a free agent bounty.

Follow me here: If some of the aforementioned quarterbacks seeking extensions get massively rewarded and/or overpaid and Brock Purdy has another strong season for San Francisco, it stands to reason Purdy’s asking price by January could be north of $55 million per year, with $200 million fully guaranteed. The 49ers are loath to agree to such guarantees — it has been an organizational mantra not to go there — and Coach Kyle Shanahan tends to think he can find and develop quarterbacks anywhere, as seen in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/02/07/brock-purdy-super-bowl-mr-irrelevant/" target=_blank>Purdy’s rise from Mr. Irrelevant</a>. Further, San Francisco’s rising payroll is already leading to a tough negotiation with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk.

Shanahan’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/dc-sports-bog/wp/2018/03/22/kyle-shanahans-master-plan-really-was-to-acquire-kirk-cousins/" target=_blank>affinity for Cousins</a> is well known, and a year from now he essentially could be renting him for 2025 at $27.5 million (or less). Cousins would make just $35 million in 2026 and 2027 (non-guaranteed), with $63 million of his $100 million in guarantees paid for in the first year of the deal. And Penix, a top-10 pick who is already nearly 24, is only going to sit for so long.

As to whether Cousins would be willing to further rework his contract to facilitate a trade that would reunite him with his first NFL play caller in an offense he loves, well, I’ll let reasonable minds draw their own conclusions there.

“Atlanta doesn’t take Penix there if they don’t think they have trade partners for Cousins,” the first GM said. “No way. By next year, Atlanta will be willing to eat some of the contract to move him — trust me.”

The other GM said: “Purdy will want more than [Tagovailoa, Prescott and Lawrence], and he should get it. … Does Kyle think he needs a $60 million QB to win? That’s the question.” The evaluator of the team that selected a quarterback this year said: “Kyle’s not afraid to trade quarterbacks, and Kyle and Mike [Shanahan] love Cousins. … My first thought was the same as yours: Cousins is going to end up with the 49ers.”

Jason has covered the National Football League and its franchises for nearly 20 years, for The Washington Post, NFL Network and CBS Sports.

Jason La Canfora

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NFL evaluators project Shedeur Sanders near the top of the 2025 draft

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