Milwaukee Brewers' William Contreras tosses his bat after hitting an RBI single off Chicago Cubs ... [+]
Being a fan of a well-run small-to-mid-market club like the Milwaukee Brewers requires a certain mentality and a carefully tempered set of expectations. Yes, you are going to contend for a postseason spot in the attainable NL Central in most seasons. Yes, you are going to be cheering for a likeable, fundamentally sound, young-ish group. But no, you’re not going to add big names and salaries at the trading deadline, and you shouldn’t get attached to your young stars, as they’re going to be fleeing to greener pastures once they reach free agency.
All of the frustrating aspects of being a Brew Crew fan were on display during the 2023-24 offseason. Their manager and maestro, Craig Counsell, departed for - of all places - Wrigley Field, breaking the managerial salary bank and going to work for the hated rival Chicago Cubs. Then right before spring training camps opened, the other shoe inevitably dropped as ace starter Corbin Burnes - entering his free agent season - was dealt to the Baltimore Orioles for a pair of prospects, 3B Joey Ortiz and LHP DL Hall. Later in spring training, closer Devin Williams suffered multiple stress fractures in his back, sidelining him for at least three months. To most, it looked like a rebuilding period had begun in Milwaukee.
And a bunch of other not-so-great developments have taken place in the season’s early days. Lineup centerpiece Christian Yelich has been limited to only 11 games by a back ailment. Lefty starter Wade Miley, part of their bargain rotation, hurt his elbow and required Tommy John surgery. And Hall, who was largely ineffective in early outings, is on the shelf with a sprained knee. All of this doesn’t seem to be part of a recipe for early season contention.
Well here we are in early May, and the Brewers are coming off their first showdown with Counsell’s Cubs tied on top of the NL Central. How on earth has this happened? Really, when you like at the big-picture numbers, this doesn’t look like a top-tier group, especially on the pitching side. Their staff ERA is crowding 4.00 and is in the bottom half of the NL. They’re next to last in the circuit in strikeouts, and have walked a higher than average number of batters. On the offensive side, the numbers are quite a bit better, ranking 4th in the NL in runs scored, and even better than that in OBP (2nd) and SLG (3rd). On both sides of the ball, the whole of the team’s efforts has been greater than the sum of its parts.
The Crew’s clear best player is their emerging superstar catcher, William Contreras. They absolutely stole him in a three-way deal with the A’s and Braves, sending OF Esteury Ruiz to Oakland to broker the Sean Murphy trade. Believe it or not, the Brewers also stole closer Joel Payamps in that deal. Contreras has absolutely everything you want in a receiver. He’s durable, athletic and a strong all-around defender. And oh, can he hit. And my money is on him getting even better at bat, as he doesn’t elevate the ball nearly as much as he will. It’s the Yelich starter set - a guy who crushes the ball in the air, on a line and on the ground, who hasn’t yet learned to elevate the ball regularly. Once he does, perhaps as early as this year, he could be an MVP candidate.
Despite the departure of Burnes, the Brewers retain an inner-circle NL Cy Young candidate in righty Freddy Peralta. He misses tons of bats and manages contact well by inducing lots of pop ups. His final frontier, the one thing standing between him and superstardom, is a relative lack of durability. 180-200 innings of Peralta could win him some hardware. The Brewers don’t have to worry about this star player going anywhere soon, as he’s locked up through 2026 at very affordable rates.
But contenders are not made by singular star position players and starting pitchers. Contributions up and down the 25 and 40-man rosters are necessary. In the lineup, SS Willy Adames - another near-term free agent who isn’t guaranteed to last the season in Milwaukee - is having a strong bounce-back season and 1B Rhys Hoskins has added power and veteran leadership. A squadron of young players filling out the remainder of their lineup has contributed greatly to their early season success. Some, like 3B Ortiz, 2B Brice Turang, LF Sal Frelick, RF Jackson Chourio - and most recently IF Tyler Black - came with pedigree and high expectations. Others, like CF Blake Perkins and 3B Oliver Dunn, seemingly materialized out of thin air. The Brewers have done an excellent job of developing players in the upper minors and even at the major league level. The connective tissue of the squad is always strong.
On the mound, decade-plus minor league journeyman Colin Rea has been a revelation. He throws strikes and pitches to contact, allowing the club’s strong team defense to take care of business. Does the club have the starting pitching to remain top contenders? That remains to be seen, as beyond Miley and Hall rotation options like Jakob Junis and Aaron Ashby have also fallen by the wayside due to injury. Minor leaguers Robert Gasser and Jacob Misiorowski could soon become part of the equation.
The bullpen has struggled at times to pick up the pieces left by the loss of Williams. Abner Uribe got first crack at the closer job, but was betrayed by a loss of control. Payamps has stabilized the situation for now, but he’s not your typical overpowering stopper. Lefty Bryan Hudson has been an unexpected savior, bridging lots of late-inning gaps. New Manager Pat Murphy has proven up to the task as the Brewers have played an awful lot of close games already, winning more than their share.
I don’t see the 2024 Milwaukee Brewers as a 95+ win team by any means, but in the NL Central, they don’t have to be. They’re going to need to sort out their overall pitching situation, which could become even more urgent as the weather warms and fly balls begin to carry. I do feel comfortable in saying that this team is not going away. They’re a high-floor bunch thanks to strong team defense and an abundance of position player youth that should improve with experience. Plus, they should be getting some important players back from injury before long. The next couple of months are the fun part of being a Brewer fan. Then comes the trading deadline.
