Biggest MLB Prospect Bust in the History of All 30 Franchises

Joel ReuterMay 8, 2024

Biggest MLB Prospect Bust in the History of All 30 Franchises

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    OAKLAND, CA - CIRCA 1991: Todd Van Poppel #59 of the Oakland Athletics pitches during an Major League baseball game circa 1991 at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum in Oakland, California. Van Poppel played for the Athletics in 1991 and 1993-96. (Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images)
    Focus on Sport/Getty Images

    The pitcher above is Todd Van Poppel, and if you grew up in the 1990s collecting baseball cards, it's a name you are likely familiar with.

    The flame-throwing Texas high school star was supposed to be a generational talent on the mound, and he likely would have been the No. 1 overall pick in the 1990 draft had he not explicitly told the Atlanta Braves he would not sign with them. They then pivoted to a Florida prep shortstop named Chipper Jones.

    Van Poppel is but one high-profile example of a can't-miss prospect who did indeed miss, and he still stands as one of the most notable busts in MLB history.

    Ahead, we've highlighted the biggest prospect bust in the history of each MLB franchise, focusing on 1990 to now since that was the first year Baseball America released a Top 100 prospect list and is widely viewed as the beginning of prospecting as we know it today.

    Who's ready for a walk down memory lane?

American League East

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    Brien Taylor
    Brien TaylorSet Number: D32287

    Baltimore Orioles: LHP Adam Loewen

    Top 100 peak: No. 13 in 2004

    The No. 4 pick in the 2002 draft, Loewen remains the highest-drafted Canadian high schooler in history. He debuted with a 2.70 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 23.1 innings at Low-A in 2003, and he was a consensus Top 25 prospect entering the 2004 season. He showed some flashes, including 3.2 scoreless innings against Team USA in the 2006 World Baseball Classic, but he never found consistent success in the majors with a 5.85 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 189.1 innings over five seasons. He briefly reinvented himself as an outfielder but was unable to follow in the footsteps of Rick Ankiel.


    Boston Red Sox: C Blake Swihart

    Top 100 peak: No. 17 in 2015

    Swihart was baseball's top catcher prospect entering the 2015 season after hitting .293/.342/.469 with 26 doubles, 13 home runs and 64 RBI in 110 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He never matched that production in the majors, hitting .243/.301/.355 for a 75 OPS+ in 696 plate appearances, and his middling defensive skills made him a minus-0.3 WAR player in 234 career games.


    New York Yankees: LHP Brien Taylor

    Top 100 peak: No. 1 in 1992

    Taylor was viewed as a generational talent after going No. 1 overall in the 1991 draft, and he posted a 2.57 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 187 strikeouts in 161.1 innings in his pro debut. He continued to impress the following year, but he suffered a major shoulder injury that offseason defending his brother following an altercation at a bar. He missed 1994 recovering from shoulder surgery and was never the same once he returned, failing to advance above Single-A over the next four years and never reaching the majors.

    There was no shortage of potential candidates for the Yankees, with Drew Henson, Ruben Rivera and Jesús Montero also worthy of a mention.


    Tampa Bay Rays: OF Josh Hamilton

    Top 100 peak: No. 1 in 2001

    The No. 1 overall pick in the 1999 draft, Hamilton appeared to be on a superstar trajectory early in his pro career, but a car accident in 2001 derailed his progression. He dealt with drug and alcohol issues following the accident and ended up missing the entire 2003, 2004 and 2005 seasons in rehab and serving various suspensions. He returned to action in 2006, but the Rays opted to leave him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and his career took off after he joined the Cincinnati Reds before he starred for the Texas Rangers.


    Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Kyle Drabek

    Top 100 peak: No. 25 in 2010

    The Phillies selected Drabek with the No. 18 overall pick in the 2006 draft, and he broke out during the 2009 season when he finished 12-3 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 150 strikeouts in 158 innings between High-A and Double-A in his age-21 campaign. That offseason, he was the prospect centerpiece of the blockbuster deal that sent Roy Halladay out of Toronto, but he was never able to even the scales on that trade. Over seven seasons in the majors, he posted a 5.26 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 179.2 innings.

American League Central

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    Bubba Starling
    Bubba StarlingRic Tapia/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

    Chicago White Sox: OF Joe Borchard

    Top 100 peak: No. 12 in 2002

    A two-sport athlete at Stanford who threw for 1,064 yards with 10 touchdowns in two seasons as a quarterback on the Cardinal football team, Borchard was given a then-record $5.3 million bonus as the No. 12 overall pick in the 2000 draft to leave football behind. He posted an .892 OPS with 27 home runs and 98 RBI in 133 games at Double-A in 2001, but strikeouts were a consistent issue. Over 800 plate appearances in the majors, he hit .205 with 26 home runs, 77 RBI and a 27.8 percent strikeout rate.


    Cleveland Guardians: 1B/OF Matt LaPorta

    Top 100 peak: No. 23 in 2008

    When CC Sabathia was shipped to Milwaukee at the 2008 trade deadline, he brought back a package of LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson and a player to be named. That player ended up being Michael Brantley, but it was LaPorta who was the centerpiece of the deal at the time. A prime example of why prospect evaluators are often hesitant to hype up a young first baseman, LaPorta hit .238/.301/.393 for a 92 OPS+ with 31 home runs, 120 RBI and minus-1.0 WAR in 291 games in Cleveland.


    Detroit Tigers: RHP Jacob Turner

    Top 100 peak: No. 21 in 2011

    Turner was given the fourth-highest bonus of any 2009 first-round pick, signing for $4.7 million as the No. 9 overall selection. He made his MLB debut just a few months after his 20th birthday, but was overmatched early before he was traded to Miami in the deal that brought Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to Detroit. He finished his MLB career with a 5.37 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and minus-2.5 WAR in 369 innings over seven seasons.


    Kansas City Royals: OF Bubba Starling

    Top 100 peak: No. 24 in 2012

    A 4-star quarterback recruit committed to play baseball and football at the University of Nebraska, Starling was given a $7.5 million bonus as the No. 5 pick in the 2011 draft, which was the largest bonus ever for a high school player at the time. His vast five-tool potential never fully clicked, and he hit .204/.246/.298 for a 44 OPS+ over 261 plate appearances in the majors. He did win a silver medal with Team USA in the 2020 Olympics, going 2-for-7 with two RBI at the games.


    Minnesota Twins: RHP Adam Johnson

    Top 100 peak: No. 41 in 2001

    Here's what Baseball America had to say about Johnson before the 2000 draft:

    "Scouts aren't sold on his 6-foot-2, 200-pound frame or his maximum-effort delivery, but he has won them over with his pitching savvy, bulldog approach and ability to hold his velocity deep into games. He projects to the middle of the first round, though a team near the top of the draft may take him earlier and try to cut a deal."

    The Twins ended up taking him No. 2 overall in what was, admittedly, one of the weaker draft classes in recent years, and he allowed 40 hits and 30 earned runs in 26.1 innings over four starts and five relief appearances in the majors.

American League West

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    Todd Van Poppel
    Todd Van PoppelFocus on Sport/Getty Images

    Houston Astros: RHP Mark Appel

    Top 100 peak: No. 31 in 2015

    Appel spurned the Pirates as the No. 8 overall pick in the 2012 draft and returned to Stanford for his senior season, and he then went No. 1 overall to the Astros. He never reached the majors in Houston before being traded to Philadelphia prior to the 2016 season in exchange for closer Ken Giles, and he retired in early 2018 after dealing with injuries throughout his career. He made a comeback in 2021 and finally reached the majors in 2022, posting a 1.74 ERA in six relief appearances.


    Los Angeles Angels: SS Brandon Wood

    Top 100 peak: No. 3 in 2006

    Wood had one of the best minor league seasons of all time in 2005, hitting .321/.381/.667 with 53 doubles, 43 home runs and 116 RBI in 134 games while spending most of the year at the High-A level. He made his MLB debut the following April and went 5-for-33 with 12 strikeouts in four different brief stints in the majors, and things never really got any better from there. He ended up hitting .186/.225/.289 with a 29.0 percent strikeout rate in 751 plate appearances over parts of four seasons in the big leagues.


    Oakland Athletics: RHP Todd Van Poppel

    Top 100 peak: No. 1 in 1991

    Van Poppel was a candidate to go No. 1 overall in the 1990 draft but ended up slipping to No. 14 overall due to his bonus demands. After posting a 2.15 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 37.2 innings in his pro debut, he opened the 1991 season as baseball's top prospect before making his MLB debut that September as a 19-year-old. Shoulder issues sidelined him the following season, and while he ended up making 359 appearances over an 11-year career, he never came close to delivering on his ace potential with a 5.58 ERA in 907 innings.


    Seattle Mariners: LHP Ryan Anderson

    Top 100 peak: No. 7 in 1999

    With a 6'10" frame, an electric fastball and a plus slider all from the left side, Anderson earned the nickname "The Little Unit" for the easy comparisons to Randy Johnson while rising in the minor league ranks. He struck out 460 batters in 349.1 innings in his three seasons in the Seattle system, but he also issued 208 walks during that span. Multiple injuries brought his career to a halt before he reached the majors, and he didn't pitch in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 before briefly attempting a comeback in the Brewers system in 2005.


    Texas Rangers: OF Ruben Mateo

    Top 100 peak: No. 6 in 2000

    Mateo hit .336/.385/.597 with 18 home runs in 63 games as a 21-year-old at Triple-A in 1999, and he broke camp the following spring as the Rangers' starting center fielder. He was hitting .291/.339/.447 and leading all rookies in batting average on June 2 when he suffered a broken leg that ended his 2000 season, and he was never the same upon returning. He resurfaced to win Mexican League MVP honors in 2013.

    Shoutout to David Clyde. IYKYK.

National League East

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    Tyler Kolek
    Tyler KolekCliff Welch/Icon SMI/Corbis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

    Atlanta Braves: SS Wilson Betemit

    Top 100 peak: No. 8 in 2002

    Signed illegally by the Braves before he was 16 years old, Betemit reached Double-A during his age-19 season when he hit .305/.349/.449 with 34 doubles, 12 home runs and 62 RBI in 131 games. He went on to play 11 seasons in the majors, posting a 104 OPS+ with 558 hits, 75 home runs, 283 RBI and 2.8 WAR in 805 games.


    Miami Marlins: RHP Tyler Kolek

    Top 100 peak: No. 52 in 2015

    A high school right-hander has never been taken No. 1 overall, and cases like Kolek are a prime example of why. A burly 6'5", 245-pound Texas prep star who touched 102 mph with his fastball leading up to the draft, he was never able to dial in his command as a pro, tallying almost as many walks (124) as strikeouts (134) in 163.2 innings while struggling to a 5.66 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over five seasons without advancing above Single-A.


    New York Mets: LHP Bill Pulsipher

    Top 100 peak: No. 12 in 1995

    Part of a hyped trio of pitching prospects in the Mets farm system dubbed "Generation K" that also included Jason Isringhausen and Paul Wilson, Pulsipher went 14-9 with a 3.22 ERA and 171 strikeouts in 201 innings during the 1994 season. While Isringhausen and Wilson both went on to have solid MLB careers, Pulsipher struggled to a 5.15 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 327 innings in the majors. He was still pitching in indy ball in 2011.


    Philadelphia Phillies: OF Dominic Brown

    Top 100 peak: No. 4 in 2011

    Brown hit .327/.391/.589 with 22 doubles, 20 home runs and 68 RBI in 93 games between Double-A and Triple-A in 2010 before making his MLB debut that July. After struggling early in his MLB career, everything clicked during the first half of the 2013 season when he posted an .856 OPS with 23 home runs and 67 RBI to earn an NL All-Star selection. However, he suffered a concussion during the second half and he never returned to that level again, playing just two more seasons in the majors.


    Washington Nationals: OF Victor Robles

    Top 100 peak: No. 5 in 2018

    Too soon? Robles is still only 26 years old and an active MLB player, but the talk of him being a generational talent has long since passed. He had a 4.4-WAR season as a rookie in 2019 while helping the team win a World Series title, but in the five years since, he has hit .224/.303/.312 for a 73 OPS+ with 1.3 WAR in 331 games. Free agency awaits for the first time this offseason, and he might benefit from a change of scenery.

National League Central

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    Rick Ankiel
    Rick AnkielSporting News via Getty Images via Getty Images

    Chicago Cubs: 3B Josh Vitters

    Top 100 peak: No. 43 in 2008

    The Cubs farm system churned out impact position player talent en route to the 2016 World Series title, but the days before that featured a long list of disappointments. Vitters came with the added hype of being the No. 3 overall pick in the 2007 draft. After posting lackluster numbers in the minors, he hit .121/.193/.202 with 33 strikeouts over 109 plate appearances in his only MLB action in 2012.


    Cincinnati Reds: IF Nick Senzel

    Top 100 peak: No. 7 in 2018

    Senzel was a Top 10 prospect in baseball in 2017 (No. 9), 2018 (No. 7) and 2019 (No. 10), and he was expected to fly through the minors after hitting .354/.456/.598 during his junior year at the University of Tennessee before going No. 2 overall in the 2016 draft. He hit .239/.302/.369 for a 77 OPS+ with minus-1.6 WAR in 377 games with the Reds before he was non-tendered this past offseason.


    Milwaukee Brewers: RHP Nick Neugebauer

    Top 100 peak: No. 17 in 2002

    Neugebauer exemplified "effectively wild" when he tallied 299 strikeouts and 214 walks in 208.2 innings in the minors in 1999 and 2000, and his prospect stock soared in 2001 when he trimmed his walk rate to 4.2 BB/9 while tallying 175 strikeouts in 130.2 innings. The command issues resurfaced in the majors, and he finished with a 4.99 ERA, 1.83 WHIP and almost as many walks (50) as strikeouts (58) in 61.1 career innings.


    Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP John Van Benschoten

    Top 100 peak: No. 24 in 2003

    Van Benschoten hit .441 and led the nation with 31 home runs during his junior season at Kent State, but the Pirates selected him No. 8 overall in the 2001 draft as a pitcher. In his first full season of pro ball, he went 11-4 with a 2.80 ERA and 145 strikeouts in 148 innings, but he never found success in the big leagues. He finished with a 9.20 ERA and more walks (68) than strikeouts (65) in 90 innings over three seasons.


    St. Louis Cardinals: LHP Rick Ankiel

    Top 100 peak: No. 1 in 2000

    Armed with a lively fastball and an elite curveball, Ankiel lived up to the hype of being baseball's top prospect during the 2000 regular season, going 11-7 with a 3.50 ERA and 194 strikeouts in 175 innings to finish runner-up in NL Rookie of the Year voting. But the wheels fell off in the postseason when he uncorked 11 walks and nine wild pitches in four innings of work, and he was never able to regain his command.

    He eventually converted to the outfield and developed into a productive power hitter, but he was unquestionably a bust as far as his ace upside on the mound is concerned.

National League West

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    Chin-Hui Tsao
    Chin-Hui TsaoJohn Cordes/Sporting News via Getty Images via Getty Images

    Arizona Diamondbacks: SS Corey Myers

    Top 100 peak: Not ranked

    Following their inaugural season in 1998, the D-backs selected Myers with the No. 4 overall pick in the 1999 draft after he set the Arizona high school record for hits (62) and home runs (21) during his senior year at Desert Vista High School. He spent nine seasons in the minors but never reached the majors, topping out at Triple-A.


    Colorado Rockies: RHP Chin-Hui Tsao

    Top 100 peak: No. 15 in 2001

    Tsao was the Rockies' first major signing on the international market when he landed a $2.2 million bonus in 1999. His power stuff made him a Top 100 prospect four years in a row, and he went 11-4 with a 2.46 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 125 strikeouts in 113.1 innings at Double-A in 2003. With a 5.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 97 MLB innings with the Rockies and Dodgers, he never found success in the majors before returning to Taiwan where he was at the center of a game-fixing scandal.


    Los Angeles Dodgers: SS Joel Guzmán

    Top 100 peak: No. 5 in 2005

    The $2.25 million bonus given to Guzman in 2001 was the largest ever given to an amateur prospect out of the Dominican Republic at the time, and he posted an .881 OPS with 33 doubles, 11 triples, 23 home runs and 86 RBI in 2004 while reaching Double-A as a teenager. A 6'7", 225-pound shortstop with elite athleticism, he was eventually traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for shortstop Julio Lugo at the 2006 deadline, but his career stalled in the upper minors and he hit .232/.306/.321 in 62 total plate appearances in the majors.


    San Diego Padres: OF Donavan Tate

    Top 100 peak: No. 53 in 2010

    A 4-star football prospect who was committed to play baseball and football at North Carolina, Tate was a raw prospect with tremendous upside when the Padres selected him with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2009 draft and gave him a $6.7 million bonus. He played six seasons in the minors, never advancing above High-A while hitting .226/.331/.321 with a 28.6 percent strikeout rate. Seven years after he graduated high school, he enrolled at the University of Arizona where he spent one season on the football team as a backup quarterback.


    San Francisco Giants: OF Gary Brown

    Top 100 peak: No. 38 in 2012

    Brown was the most impressive early performer from the 2010 draft class, hitting .336/.407/.519 with 34 doubles, 13 triples, 14 home runs, 80 RBI and 53 steals in 131 games at High-A in his first full pro season. That ended up being the peak of his career and he stalled out in Triple-A, receiving just one brief promotion as a September call-up in 2014 when he went 3-for-7 in seven games.

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