Predicting Most Surprising Rookie Gems from 2024 NFL Draft Class
Alex BallentineMay 8, 2024Predicting Most Surprising Rookie Gems from 2024 NFL Draft Class
The 2024 NFL draft class has the potential to be one of the most electrifying in memory thanks to a top-heavy group of offensive talent.
There's a trio of potential superstar wide receivers in Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers. A dynamic tight end in Brock Bowers, a collection of potential franchise tackles in Joe Alt, JC Latham and Olu Fashanu, and six quarterbacks who went in the first 12 picks. There's just a lot of premium talent in this class.
However, all that star power at the top is bound to overshadow some other players who are going to wind up making a name for themselves.
Every year, there are rookies who come from nowhere to stand out in their draft class. This season will be no exception.
Looking into the crystal ball, these players have the talent, team situation and scheme fit to become the unsung stars of this year's draft.
WR Javon Baker, New England Patriots
The path to playing time is usually long for a Day 3 pick. The path to becoming a significant contributor is even longer.
However, fourth-round selection Javon Baker should have a shorter runway than most going to the New England Patriots. They entered the draft with one of the worst receiver rooms in the league, and the 22-year-old should be competing for playing time right away.
The Pats used their second-round pick on Ja'Lynn Polk. The Washington receiver and No. 3 overall selection Drake Maye will get most of the attention, but don't discount Baker from becoming a cog in the passing attack in Year 1.
B/R scout Cory Giddings, who also serves as director of player personnel at UCF, predicted Baker will become a 1,000-yard receiver early in his career. He noted that the former Knights player "thrives when contested, pairing supreme body control, strong hands and the ability to elevate and attack the ball."
That's similar to the skill set Polk brings to the table, but there's enough of a void of talent in the receiver room that both could end up being primary targets.
Demario Douglas was the top receiver on this team last season and he's a slot-only player. Veterans Kendrick Bourne and K.J. Osborn are the biggest competition on the outside.
It's not a stretch to believe Baker can overtake them on the depth chart as a rookie.
WR Malachi Corley, New York Jets
This year's wide receiver class is loaded. NFL teams obviously loved the group as 10 of them were gone in the first 37 picks.
Malachi Corley went 65th overall and was barely a blip on the radar by comparison, but there's a good chance he'll be more than that by the time the season is over.
The Western Kentucky product was ranked 74th overall on our final big board. B/R scout Derrik Klassen was a fan of his explosiveness but also noted he's a fairly limited route-runner whose usage was limited to, "screens, shallow crossers, flat routes and end-arounds in college."
Those are all fair concerns, but they also play into what his role with the Jets will be.
Garrett Wilson is the obvious No. 1 receiver in the Jets' passing game. Mike Williams is a nice secondary option as a big-bodied vertical receiver who can go up and get the ball.
The other archetype that Aaron Rodgers needs to be successful is a slot receiver who can be targeted on crossers and and flat routes when neither deep option is open.
That was the role Randall Cobb played for the quarterback in their primes with the Packers. Corley has the skill set to play that role, and there isn't much competition for it in New York.
It's completely within the range of outcomes for the 22-year-old to become a second or high-end third option in New York with better numbers than several receivers drafted before him.
Edge Jonah Elliss, Denver Broncos
Success as a rookie comes at the intersection of talent and opportunity. Jonah Elliss has both with his landing spot in Denver.
The Broncos are desperate for pass-rush help. The front seven was not a scary bunch for opposing quarterbacks last season. It was 29th in pressure percentage and 21st in sacks.
Denver's group of pass-rushers is full of young, mostly unproven players. Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper led the team in sacks last season, but neither is an established veteran whose role is guaranteed to remain the same in 2024.
That should work in Elliss' favor. He's going to have an opportunity to prove himself against other unproven options as the Broncos continue to rebuild the defense.
Elliss was a highly productive pass-rusher in his final season with Utah and is only 21 years old, so there's a lot of time for him to become an even better player. He had 12 sacks and 16 tackles for a loss for the Utes last season.
B/R scout Matt Holder praised his varied pass-rush plan in his scouting report:
"Ellis sets up his pass-rush move well during the stem phase of the rush by getting square to sell the bull rush so offensive tackles stop their feet and then using a Eurostep to win around the edge. He also flashes hands to get tackles to throw their punch early and has an impressive inside spin move as a counter."
It's not out of the realm of possibility to say Elliss could be the Broncos' second-best pass-rusher as a rookie despite being a third-round pick.
Edge Adisa Isaac, Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens were a bit of an anomaly when it comes to pass rush last season. They led the league in sacks with 60 on the season, but they were 23rd in pressure percentage and ninth in pass rush win rate.
Jadeveon Clowney was the team's top edge-rusher. His pass rush win rate of 25 percent was fifth among all edges, and Kyle Van Noy was also on ESPN's leaderboard with a 19 percent win rate.
However, Van Noy is 33 years old and Clowney will be playing with the Panthers, so there's a void that will need to be filled in the Ravens' offense. Odafe Oweh will have to step up, and the Ravens would love for David Ojabo to get healthy and live up to his billing as a 2022 second-round pick.
Don't count out third-round pick Adisa Isaac from picking up some of the slack, though.
Oweh's former Penn State teammate is a little undersized at 6'4", 247 pounds but actually excelled against the run as a Nittany Lion. He posted 16 tackles for loss but also showed the ability to wrong-arm oncoming blocks or set a hard edge depending on his responsibility.
B/R scout Matt Holder did note Isaac is a little unrefined. His hand placement isn't consistent and he needs to develop more pass-rush moves.
But the 22-year-old is a strong athlete who posted an 8.99 relative athletic score and can at least be effective as a blitzer as a rookie. That might be enough to get him on the field and making an impact much sooner than the consensus thought.
RB MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers
This year's running back class was widely panned by analysts, but there's bound to be a few productive backs who end up enhancing the perception of the group. They will just need the right environment to succeed.
MarShawn Lloyd was drafted into an emergent offense with Jordan Love at quarterback in Green Bay.
Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reported that the Packers weren't only ones who liked the USC product. He noted that the Cowboys were interested in him and the Giants were eyeing him as a "future lead back but didn't have a pick between Nos. 71 and 107."
He went on to highlight Lloyd's "versatility, burst toughness and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield."
The 23-year-old's path to a role isn't as difficult as it seems on first glance. The Packers only re-signed AJ Dillon to a one-year, $1.3 million contract, and offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich told reporters he would "like to get him (Lloyd) out there as much as possible."
Green Bay handed out a sizable contract to Josh Jacobs this offseason, but he also missed four games with injury last year. The Packers are going to want to keep him healthy throughout the season, which means Lloyd could be in line for a surprisingly bigger role and surprising production.
WR Roman Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Again, this wide receiver class is special and that means some good players fell through the cracks in the NFL draft.
Roman Wilson is a great example. The Steelers took him with the No. 84 pick, but he ranked 44th on our big board and seventh among receivers.
There's a lot to like about the Michigan product, but there's also a lot to like about the landing spot and context he's in.
The Steelers are an offense in flux going into the new season. They have a new offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith, two new quarterbacks in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as well as a receiving corps in transition after trading away Diontae Johnson.
Johnson was Pittsburgh's primary weapon in the slot. Now that he's been traded to the Carolina Panthers, that role is open. Calvin Austin III is there, but he's more of a gadget player.
Wilson is on the smaller side at 5'11", 185 pounds, but B/R scout Derrik Klassen was high on him because of his ability to get open. He is "among the best route-runners in the class" and is explosive.
George Pickens is the top receiver in the Pittsburgh offense, but he's more of a vertical threat than a high-volume dominator.
Russell Wilson is going to need a chain-moving second option who can get open consistently. That's just what the Steelers got with their third-round pick.
It doesn't hurt that Wilson earned a Tyler Lockett comparison from Klassen. There's some proven track record of the veteran quarterback being able to work with that kind of player.