Ranking the Luckiest Teams in NBA Draft Lottery History

Some say it's better to be lucky than good.

But if you can luck into talent, then you're cooking with gas. The NBA draft lottery is chock full of both, and the wild swings it sometimes provides can change the direction of a franchise.

Over the history of the event, which began in 1985 when the New York Knicks landed the right to select Patrick Ewing No. 1 overall—and drew the ire of conspiracy theorists the world over—several teams have received more breaks than others.

To determine the instances in which fortune has smiled most fondly, we considered the number of spots jumped in the order relative to team record in a given year, as well as the player selected and his time spent with the drafting franchise.

But we're not just going by percentage swings, because impact matters.

A pingpong-induced leap up the draft order probably isn't considered so lucky when you grab Darko Milicic while Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade are still on the board.

So to measure whether the team's lottery luck made a positive dent in its future, the draftee's box plus/minus (BPM), number of MVP awards, other top-five MVP finishes and titles won while in town were baked into the equation.

Keep in mind, the following isn't simply a ranking of best to worst players—misguided as it may be, here's one attempt at quantifying luck.

Victor WembanyamaPhotos by Caitlin Smith/NBAE via Getty Images

The best of the rest, listed in chronological order:

New York Knicks, 1985 (2-Spot Jump): Patrick Ewing may have been the original lottery prize, but the Knicks' relatively small jump up the board combined with their lack of postseason success during his tenure narrowly kept this one off the proper list.

Cleveland Cavaliers, 1986 (5 Spots): The Cavs' jump to No. 1 for UNC star Brad Daugherty was nothing to sneeze at, as the big man was highly impactful when healthy. Unfortunately his career was marred by injuries, leaving us to wonder, What if?

Orlando Magic, 1992 (1 Spot): Orlando's jump from No. 2 to 1 was small, and while that might not have mattered had Shaquille O'Neal stayed in town for his whole career, his four-year run didn't provide enough impact for these Magic to outweigh that.

Charlotte Hornets, 1992 (6 Spots): This stroke of lottery luck would have been a cinch to make the proper list had Alonzo Mourning, whom Charlotte selected No. 2 that year, stayed in town longer than three years.

Golden State Warriors, 1993 (4 Spots): The Warriors jumped from seventh to third in this lottery, grabbing Penny Hardaway with the pick and flipping him in a deal for that year's top selection, Chris Webber. C-Webb only lasted one year with the Warriors, though you might see the other half of this deal later in these rankings.

Houston Rockets, 2002 (4 Spots): Yao Ming was in the offing when Houston jumped from fifth to first in the '02 lottery. In all, he had an-above average career, but injuries kept him from having enough impact to push these Rockets into our top 11.

Los Angeles Clippers, 2001 (6 Spots): These Clippers drafted Tyson Chandler at No. 2 and flipped him to Chicago on draft night for Elton Brand, who was a two-time All-Star in L.A.

Washington Wizards, 2010 (4 Spots): John Wall was a five-time All-Star in Washington, and a four-spot hop was a fortuitous one, but neither his impact nor the team's lottery jump was big enough to put this instance in the proper list.

Los Angeles Lakers, 2019 (7 Spots): Trades were included in this exercise, but while L.A. flipped No. 4 pick De'Andre Hunter in the three-team trade for Anthony Davis that summer, there were so many assets heading out of L.A. in that deal that it was too hard to parse how much Hunter's inclusion (and therefore the Lakers' lottery luck) impacted things.

Memphis Grizzlies, 2019 (6 Spots): Memphis hopped up to No. 2 for Ja Morant, and while they made a significant leap for an uber-talented player, he hasn't been on the court enough to crack the top 11.

Charlotte Hornets, 2020 (5 Spots): Despite LaMelo Ball's relatively short time on the hardwood, the Hornets' significant leap and the flashes he's shown while healthy make this one deserving of a nod.

San Antonio Spurs, 2023 (2 Spots): In yet another fortuitous turn of events for the Spurs, they hopped from the third-worst record to the top spot and landed Victor Wembanyama. Give this another decade, and we might see Wemby No. 1 on this list with a bullet.

Pelicans' Pre-Lottery Position in 2012: No. 4

The Pick: Anthony Davis, No. 1 overall

Still known as the Hornets in early 2012, New Orleans was in limbo as a league-controlled franchise and coming off the season that followed the Chris Paul trade. The organization was in sore need of hope.

After its May sale to New Orleans Saints owner Tom Benson, the team entered April's lottery fourth in the expected draft order, well out of range of Anthony Davis. The Kentucky star was coming off an MOP performance in the Wildcats' run to the national title and was the clear prize at the top of the draft.

"Everything was surreal once they announced the fourth pick," Hornets coach Monty Williams told reporters at the time. "I said, 'This is pretty cool.' I knew my wife and kids were home praying that things would go well and they did."

Davis spent seven seasons with the Hornets/Pelicans. Beyond averages of 23.7 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.4 blocks across 466 games, he put up a 6.1 BPM and had three top-10 MVP finishes with the team.

Things were contentious at the end of his New Orleans tenure, which resulted in his trade to the Lakers, but there was no doubting he was one of the NBA's best while in the Big Easy.

While his on-court impact was substantial during his time there, the Pelicans later made a much bigger leap up the board for another No. 1 overall pick, making the luck factor higher in the latter case.

The Victims: Charlotte Bobcats

Coincidentally, the franchise that would later claim the Hornets moniker had the worst record heading into the 2012 lottery. Michael Jordan's run as governor might've looked a little different with AD in tow, but the Bobcats fell to No. 2 that year and ended up with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who never quite panned out.

Pelicans' Pre-Lottery Position in 2019: No. 7

The Pick: Zion Williamson, No. 1

In the spring of 2019 the New Orleans Pelicans were in crisis with superstar Anthony Davis asking out of town and not much hope looming.

But that year's lottery was a chaotic one, with three teams making big leaps up the expected board in the Los Angeles Lakers (No. 11 to 4), Memphis Grizzlies (No. 8 to 2) and Pelicans (No. 7 to 1).

The Pels' big prize? Zion Williamson, who was expected to step in for AD as the franchise's anchor. After four years, New Orleans certainly goes as Zion goes, but while his on-court impact has been tantalizing (24.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 4.1 apg, 4.6 BPM in 184 games), injuries and conditioning have kept him from becoming the transcendent player many had hoped. Still, the 23-year-old has plenty of time to come into his own.

While AD's on-court impact was higher for the Pels than Zion's has been so far, the luck factor of the latter situation is higher because of the bigger draft leap (six spots vs. three).

The Victims: New York Knicks

While things are looking up in New York with Jalen Brunson running the show, the veil of losing hadn't quite begun to lift by the time the 2019 lottery rolled around. But hope loomed in the form of Zion. Of course by that point, the NBA had switched up the lottery odds to the current system, where the worst three teams get an equal shot at the top prize at 14 percent.

Enter: Sad trombone.

The Knicks had the worst record but fell to No. 3 and took RJ Barrett, who was shipped out of town this season in the OG Anunoby trade.

Bulls' Pre-Lottery Position in 2008: No. 9

The Pick: Derrick Rose, No. 1

The 2007-08 Chicago Bulls were led by young versions of Luol Deng (22) and Ben Gordon (24) and weren't quite bad enough to get to the top of the '08 draft.

At least that's what their 1.7 percent chance of winning the lottery said.

Yet Chicago zoomed from No. 9 to No. 1, getting the full range of choices from a class that didn't quite have a clear top prize. The Bulls nabbed Memphis point guard Derrick Rose, sending the trajectory of their franchise toward the league's upper echelon.

Rose won the '08-09 Rookie of the Year and only improved from there, earning an All-selection the next season and winning the league MVP award two years later. During his MVP campaign, he took the Bulls to the Eastern Conference Finals.

A series of knee injuries infamously ruined what could have been with those Baby Bulls, but the eight-spot jump and D-Rose's MVP season firmly plant this instance in our top 10.

The Victims: Miami Heat

While the Heat had the worst record and dropped from No. 1 to No. 2 in the order after the pingpong balls spoke, it's hard to call them the victims in this situation.

They took Kansas State scorer Michael Beasley with what would turn out to be this draft's two biggest prizes, Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook, still on the board.

Beasley turned into a famous draft bust, lasting only two seasons in Miami.

Cavaliers' Pre-Lottery Position in 2014: No. 9

The Pick: Andrew Wiggins, No. 1

The Cleveland Cavaliers had just won two of the previous three draft lotteries but headed into the 2014 event with just a 1.7 percent chance of grabbing the top pick.

Welp. Make that three of four lottery wins.

After taking Kyrie Irving No. 1 overall in 2011 and botching the previous year's draft by selecting Anthony Bennett in the same spot, the Cavs took Kansas' Andrew Wiggins in the 2014 event.

At the time of the June draft, it looked like a nice young core that would need time to develop. But then LeBron James changed everything and headed back to his hometown team.

With The King's return, GM David Griffin wasn't about to wait around for Wiggins or Bennett to develop, and he pounced on Kevin Love's trade request from Minnesota, shipping them both out for the Timberwolves All-Star.

So for the on-court portion of this exercise, the Cavs benefited from Love's presence. He ended up playing nine seasons with the team, averaging 15.7 points and 9.2 rebounds per game with a 2.7 BPM.

But the only number that really matters in this equation is one—as in the number of titles Love helped bring to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Victims: Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks had the worst record the previous season and only dropped one spot.

They took Jabari Parker at No. 2, but the only thing they were a victim of was their own bad drafting, as they passed on the chance to take Joel Embiid, who went No. 3 to the 76ers. The big man has gone on to become one of the league's most dangerous scorers and won the '22-'23 MVP.

Oops.

Cavaliers' Pre-Lottery Position in 2011: No. 8

The Pick: Kyrie Irving, No. 1

You can't talk about NBA lottery luck without mentioning the Cavaliers. A lot.

And perhaps their biggest stroke of unexpected lottery fortune came in 2011 when they leaped from No. 9 to the top spot despite a 2.8 percent chance to do so, allowing them to grab Duke point guard Kyrie Irving.

They were in possession of the pick because of a previous trade with the Los Angeles Clippers that sent Mo Williams to L.A. and Baron Davis to Cleveland.

The seven-spot jump turned into a legendary run for Kyrie and the Cavs. He won Rookie of the Year and was a two-time All-Star by the time LeBron James rejoined the organization in 2014-15. Kyrie, LeBron and Co. went to that year's NBA Finals, and a season later, Irving hit one of the biggest shots in NBA history to seal Cleveland's first title.

His time with the team ended in strife, as he grew tired of sharing the limelight with James and asked for a trade.

In all, Irving was a part of three Finals runs in six seasons with the team, posting averages of 21.6 points, 5.5 assists, 1.3 steals and a 3.5 BPM.

The Victims: Minnesota Timberwolves

While some might consider the Clippers the victims here, it was their decision to trade the pick that eventually landed Kyrie in a salary dump, even though they had no idea how valuable it would turn out to be.

The T-Wolves, however, had the worst record and a 25 percent chance at No. 1 overall. Instead of Irving, they had to settle for Derrick Williams at No. 2 overall. While he went on to have a lengthy career as a journeyman, he was a bust as far as top-two picks go.

SuperSonics' Pre-Lottery Position in 2007: No. 5

The Pick: Kevin Durant, No. 2

The 2007 draft class featured a clear top two prospects in Ohio State's Greg Oden and Texas' Kevin Durant.

And that year's lottery saw a pair of teams make significant leaps up the board: The Portland Trail Blazers went from the projected No. 6 pick to the top overall selection, and the Seattle SuperSonics—one season out from becoming the Oklahoma City Thunder—leaped from No. 5 to 2.

Oden went No. 1 to Portland, and his story is a well-known one riddled with as many what-ifs as injuries. So while the big man was supremely talented, his lack-of on-court impact kept this stroke of luck from panning out, and those Blazers from making this list.

KD on the other hand? He only turned into one of the greatest scorers the NBA has ever seen. He won four scoring titles in OKC, the '07-08 Rookie of the Year, the 2013-14 MVP and had five other top-five MVP finishes while in town. Alongside Russell Westbrook and James Harden, Durant took the Thunder to the 2012 NBA Finals, his best playoff showing with the organization.

So his on-court impact in OKC was clear. Yet the Sonics' relatively small leap up the board compared to some of the other inclusions on this list kept this entry from climbing higher.

The Victims: Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies had the NBA's worst record heading into this lottery but fell to No. 4. Perhaps Oden's injury-riddled career removes some of the what-if sting for Memphis, and the team did end up with the big man's Ohio State teammate, Mike Conley Jr., who became a vital member of the Grit and Grind Grizzlies.

Still, if they had merely fallen one spot instead of three, Durant probably would've won all those scoring titles in Tennessee rather than Oklahoma.

SuperSonics' Pre-Lottery Position in 1990: No. 10

The Pick: Gary Payton, No. 2

The 1989-90 Seattle SuperSonics were a mediocre group at 41-41 and led by the likes of 20-point scorers Dale Ellis and Xavier McDaniel. As such, they entered that year's draft lottery with a 3.03 percent chance at landing the top pick and a shot at presumptive No. 1 selection Derrick Coleman.

Turns out, the odds were right. Sort of.

The Nets landed Coleman, but Seattle soared to No. 2 and nabbed Oregon State guard Gary Payton. The guy who was so good at defense he earned the nickname The Glove through six top-six finishes in Defensive Player of the Year voting, including a win in 1995-96. The guy who went on to have eight top-10 MVP finishes. And become a Hall of Famer.

That Gary Payton.

Sounds like Seattle got just the right amount of luck in that instance.

The Victims: Denver Nuggets

The Nets entered that year's lottery with the worst record and therefore the highest odds of landing Coleman No. 1, which they did. But the Sonics' good fortune bumped the Nuggets (who acquired the pick in a previous trade with the Heat) out of Payton range, and they selected Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf.

The guard formerly known as Chris Jackson averaged 16.0 points per game over six seasons in Denver but was no consolation prize for losing out on Payton.

Hornets' Pre-Lottery Position in 1999: No. 13

The Pick: Baron Davis, No. 3

Some ammo for sports trivia night: The 1999 Charlotte Hornets are tied for the most spots jumped in lottery history at 10 (the other team to come later on this list).

Armed with a 0.5 percent chance of landing the top selection, the Hornets expected to be picking in the Trajan Langdon-Corey Magette range at the back end of the lottery.

Instead, they zoomed to No. 3 in a draft that saw Elton Brand go No. 1 to the Bulls and Steve Francis go second to the then-Vancouver Grizzlies.

It seems the ex-UCLA star didn't view himself as being so lucky at the time, as he told HoopsHype's Michael Scotto in 2023: "Paul Silas, rest in peace. I remember eavesdropping on a call with [agent] Arn Tellem, and Paul was like, 'Well, f--k it. He can go overseas. I'm still going to draft him (laughs).' I was like, 'I'm not going to be in Charlotte.' He was like, 'That's fine. I'm still drafting your ass. You don't have to come if you don't want to, but I'm drafting you. If you're at No. 3, I'm taking you.'"

Though Davis did also say: "That was one of the best moves of my life. To be coached by Silas and have another father figure and role model."

Davis became a two-time All-Star and one-time top-10 MVP finisher with the Hornets, finishing with a BPM of over 3.0 across five-plus seasons. His best year with the organization, '03-'04, saw him average 22.9 points, 7.5 assists and 2.4 steals for a third-team All-NBA spot.

While some of the other players lower on this list had bigger on-court impacts, Davis and the Hornets sit at No. 4 in lottery luck because of the sheer number of spots jumped.

(Bonus trivia: The 1985 Golden State Warriors had the biggest drop in lottery history at five spots, though they ended up with a Hall of Famer in Chris Mullin via that pick, so it's safe to say it worked out.)

The Victims: Los Angeles Clippers

The Grizzlies had the worst record that year but landed No. 2 pick and Francis, so the Hornets' luck didn't affect them. But the Clippers fell from second to fourth in the lottery, handing them Lamar Odom. The ex-Rhode Island star didn't become the franchise building block L.A. had hoped, and he left in free agency for the Heat after four seasons.

Magic's Pre-Lottery Position in 1993: No. 11

The Pick: Chris Webber, No. 1

In terms of a pure miracle, this might be the biggest one in lottery history. Not only did the 1993 Orlando Magic tie the '99 Hornets for most number of spots jumped all-time at 10, but they also landed the top pick in a strong draft on top of it.

So of course they traded the selection. But fear not: The Magic flipped No. 1 overall pick Chris Webber for No. 3 pick Penny Hardaway and three future first-rounders in a draft-night deal.

For the purposes of this exercise, the Magic get credit for Hardaway's on-court exploits. While Webber went on to a Hall of Fame career, most notably with the Sacramento Kings, Penny was no slouch in forming one half of one of the league's most exciting young duos in the mid-'90s alongside Shaquille O'Neal.

During his six-year Magic run, Hardaway had two top-10 MVP finishes, two first-team All-NBA spots, a third-team nomination and four All-Star berths to go with a 4.3 BPM. Injuries eventually prevented Penny from continuing on his early-career HOF trajectory, but those heady days with the Magic were some of the best of the decade.

Another note for trivia buffs: Though the Magic traded two of the three picks they acquired in that draft-night trade, the players eventually selected were Todd Fuller in 1996, Vince Carter (!) in 1998 and Mike Miller in 2000. The impact of those picks were not considered for this list.

The Victims: Dallas Mavericks

The '93 lottery produced a lot of chaos, with the Magic, Warriors (four spots) and Sixers (three spots, up to No. 2) all making significant leaps. So you can take your pick between the Mavericks, Timberwolves and then-Bullets as the biggest victims.

But the Mavs take the cake, as they had the worst record and therefore a 16.7 percent shot at Webber. Instead they landed Jamal Mashburn at No. 4. The former Kentucky star had a lengthy career and was a six-time 20-ppg scorer, but he lasted just three-plus seasons in Dallas.

Spurs' Pre-Lottery Position in 1987: No. 4

The Pick: David Robinson, No. 1

The San Antonio Spurs didn't make the biggest jump in the 1987 lottery. That honor went to the Suns, who hopped up five spots to No. 2 and landed Armen Gilliam.

But they certainly made the most impactful one. The three-spot move allowed them to begin their legendary run of lottery luck and grab the first of three generational big men in the form of David Robinson.

The best player in Naval Academy history wasted no time in establishing his dominance as Rookie of the Year, an All-NBA third-teamer and a top-six MVP finish. He went on to have a Hall of Fame career and grab a spot on the NBA's 75th Anniversary team.

In all he finished with one MVP win, four other top-five MVP finishes, 10 All-Star appearances, a 7.5 BPM and a Defensive Player of the Year award.

Oh, and two Larry O'Brien Trophies.

The Admiral's massive impact alongside San Antonio's three-spot lottery jump leaves these Spurs behind only a former teammate and fellow generational tall guy, coming up next.

The Victims: Los Angeles Clippers

These were strange times, when there were seven lottery entrants, and each team had a 14.29 percent chance of landing the top pick.

But the Clippers had the worst record the previous season and fell to fourth, where they tabbed Reggie Williams...one spot ahead of Scottie Pippen.

So that year's Clippers had the double-whammy of terrible lottery luck and bad drafting.

Spurs' Pre-Lottery Position in 1997: No. 1

The Pick: Tim Duncan, No. 1

Though the 1997 San Antonio Spurs had the best odds of landing the No. 1 pick of any team on this list at 21.6 percent, the magnitude of that one-spot jump cannot be overstated.

It's sort of what happens when the pingpong balls hand you a top-10 all-time player.

Tim Duncan and his legacy with the Spurs probably need no introduction, but let's run through it for the fun of picking our jaws off the floor afterward: Rookie of the Year, 15-time All-Star and All-NBA, two-time league MVP and three-time Finals MVP, 15-time All-Defensive selection. Five championships. Hall of Fame.

Yeah.

Hence, these Spurs are No. 1 with a bullet because of the massive on-court impact Duncan provided despite that small lottery leap.

The Victims: Boston Celtics

Sorry, Celtics fans. You're on the wrong side of the biggest draft-luck swing ever. Armed with two lottery picks heading into that year's event, Boston had multiple shots at landing No. 1 and tons of hope after hiring Rick Pitino as head coach.

The C's had the top odds with their own selection at 27.5 percent. While the Grizzlies had the worst record the previous year, they were ineligible for the No. 1 pick as an expansion franchise.

The Celtics also held the Mavericks' selection thanks to a previous trade, giving them an 8.8 percent shot with that one. No dice.

Duncan would later say on The Ringer's Real Ones podcast (h/t Basketball Network):

"And then Boston goes third, and I remember getting up from my couch and standing on the table watching TV, like, 'Holy crap, I'm not going to Boston?' Like, in my head I was, that's where I was going there just for percentage chances I was like, 'I'm not going to Boston,' and I'm standing on a table in the middle of the living room, and then Philly comes up with number two, and I'm like holy crap, I get to play with David Robinson. Are you kidding me? This is awesome as for development."

The Celtics ended up with Chauncey Billups at No. 3 and Ron Mercer at No. 6, neither of whom panned out in Boston—even though Billups went on to become a Hall of Famer himself thanks to his exploits elsewhere. But given Duncan's impact, it wouldn't have mattered much if both turned into All-Stars on Causeway Street.

Lottery information via RealGM. Advanced statistics via Basketball Reference.