Welcome to the first installment of a Hotline series looking ahead to the Big 12 race — a race with 16 teams, no divisions and plenty of parity.
Kansas State and Utah are the favorites, according to the 2024 win totals published by FanDuel, but neither carries a total in double digits. Instead, oddsmakers have pegged the Wildcats and Utes for 9.5 wins.
That seems reasonable.
The Hotline examined rosters and schedules — now that the transfer window is closed, depth charts are easier to sketch — then matched our forecasts against the FanDuel totals.
To illustrate our confidence level for each pick, we allocated a hypothetical $2,500 total.
Please note: Win totals are based on 12 games played; conference championships and bowl games don’t count.
(Teams listed alphabetically)
ArizonaTotal: 7.5Our call: OverAmount wagered: $150Comment: First-year coach Brent Brennan kept his core together, including quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan, which should prevent a substantial backslide. The non-conference trip to Kansas State in Week 3 adds a hurdle, but the Cats have seven home games against middle- and lower-tier opponents. One or two road victories — perhaps UCF or TCU — should be all they need to hit the Over.
Arizona StateTotal: 4.5Our call: UnderAmount wagered: $250Comment: The Sun Devils don’t have a creampuff on the non-conference schedule — Wyoming won nine games last year; Texas State won eight; Mississippi State won five — and they drew a brutal array of road games in the Big 12 rotation. Kenny Dillingham has added impact players, but not enough. In our view, oddsmakers could have justified setting the total at 3.5.
BaylorTotal: 5.5Our call: UnderAmount wagered: $125Comment: We couldn’t help but notice a quirk in the schedule, with the Bears playing all four of the September games against teams from the Mountain Time Zone: Utah (road), Air Force (home), Colorado (road) and Brigham Young (home). How is that relevant? Because they must win at least two of the four to make the bowl math work. And we aren’t sure about a split.
Brigham YoungTotal: 4.5Our call: UnderAmount wagered: $250Comment: The easiest call on the board, partly because of the Cougars’ flawed roster but mostly because of their insane schedule. It features two difficult non-conference road games (SMU and Wyoming) and all the top teams in the Big 12: Arizona, Utah, Oklahoma State and the Kansas schools. BYU has won at least four games every year since 1970, but we see 3-9 as a distinct possibility.
CincinnatiTotal: 5.5Our call: OverAmount wagered: $100Comment: We view Year 2 under Scott Satterfield as a pivot point for the Bearcats, thanks largely to the arrival of quarterback Brendan Sorsby from Indiana. Add a manageable non-conference schedule and four key intra-Big 12 misses (Oklahoma State, Kansas, Utah and Arizona), and that win total should be surpassed by the middle of November.
ColoradoTotal: 5.5Our call: UnderAmount wagered: $75Comment: Two things, equally true: The Buffaloes will be better next season than they were last season; and their record won’t reflect the improvement because of a rugged schedule and the bullseye on their backs. Unless they sweep a non-conference lineup featuring Nebraska, Colorado State and North Dakota State — which is possible but not probable — the Over looks a tad high.
HoustonTotal: 4.5Our call: UnderAmount wagered: $150Comment: One of the shrewdest coaching hires of the offseason (Willie Fritz) should improve Houston’s long-haul trajectory. But the short-term outlook is bleak, and the schedule, which includes Oklahoma, Iowa State, Utah, Arizona and both Kansas schools, is daunting. If Fritz wins five, he will have done masterful work.
Iowa StateTotal: 7.5Our call: OverAmount wagered: $50Comment: Admittedly, we wavered on the Cyclones. They have more than enough talent to contend for a top-tier finish in the Big 12, but road trips to Iowa, Kansas and Utah lower the victory ceiling. Our confidence level with the Over is limited, resulting in the minimal (hypothetical) wager.
KansasTotal: 8.5Our call: OverAmount wagered: $200Comment: The selection was made with full faith in coach Lance Leipold — and in KU’s prospects for victory in a vital Week 2 trip to Illinois. Win there, and a 3-0 record in non-conference play should follow. Anything short of perfection outside the Big 12 makes the Over/Under math exceedingly difficult even though the Jayhawks don’t play Utah or Arizona.
Kansas StateTotal: 9.5Our call: OverAmount wagered: $100Comment: The Wildcats stand with Utah as Big 12 frontrunners despite the loss of quarterback Will Howard (to Ohio State). An early-season home duel with Arizona was scheduled before realignment and won’t count in the conference race, but it matters a great deal for the overall win total. With a victory, Kansas State’s path to 10 will be wide enough to support the Over.
Oklahoma StateTotal: 7.5Our call: OverAmount wagered: $250Comment: With star tailback Ollie Gordon and veteran quarterback Alan Bowman, the Cowboys possess the backfield tandem necessary for high-level success. Their defense is hardly airtight, but the schedule — the full schedule, not just the conference lineup — is largely devoid of teams capable of slowing the Cowboys’ attack. In other words, they should outscore enough opponents to win at least eight.
TCUTotal: 7.5Our call: UnderAmount wagered: $175Comment: We didn’t spend much time on TCU; there are simply too many holes in the depth chart and tough road games on the schedule for the Horned Frogs to win eight. Even Stanford and SMU, which hardly qualify as first-tier opponents, add enough incremental challenges to create more risk than we care to take.
Texas TechTotal: 7.5Our call: OverAmount wagered: $125Comment: If the Red Raiders finish September with fewer than four wins, something will have gone very wrong. But can they find four more over the final two months? Probably. Our confidence isn’t rooted so much in TTU as in the schedule: The Red Raiders don’t play Utah, Kansas or Kansas State. In mammoth conferences, the misses matter immensely.
UCFTotal: 7.5Our call: UnderAmount wagered: $250Comment: The Knights only won three conference games in their inaugural season in the Big 12, and we don’t envision a significant uptick in ’24 with a difficult lineup of opponents. In fact, the Hotline gladly would have gone Under with a total set at 6.5. This was one of the easiest calls on the board.
UtahTotal: 9.5Our call: OverAmount wagered: $100Comment: We should know by the end of September whether the Utes are tracking to surpass that lofty win total. If they sweep back-to-back showdowns against Oklahoma State (road) and Arizona (home), the Over comes into clear view. Split, and the math turns challenging. Lose both, and it becomes quantum physics.
West VirginiaTotal: 6.5Our call: UnderAmount wagered: $150Comment: Even if you believe West Virginia’s success in 2023 (nine wins) wasn’t a fluke, it’s difficult to identify a clear path to seven victories with an arduous non-conference schedule (Pitt and Penn State), plus all the Big 12 heavyweights except Utah. We wouldn’t be surprised if the Mountaineers end October with just two or three wins on their ledger.
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