Two political occurrences on Wednesday encapsulated the root of the problems that have plagued Israel since the current government’s founding in late December 2022: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is doing everything to placate his far-right partners for political survival, even at the expense of what many in his own party believe to be the nation’s best interests.The second occurrence of the day, but the more impactful one, was Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s speech at a press conference on Wednesday evening in which he publicly implied that Netanyahu’s indecision on “the day after” in Gaza stemmed from his unwillingness to pay a political price. Gallant claimed that the indecision was leading de facto to IDF control over Gaza’s two million civilians since Israel was not enabling non-Hamas Palestinians to take over civilian matters in the Strip.Gallant’s speech eerily resembled his famous speech on March 25, 2023, in what became known as the “Gallant Night.” The defense minister at the time called on Netanyahu to halt the controversial judicial reforms due to potential damage to Israel’s national security. Then, too, Gallant was at odds with a hawkish minister, Justice Minister Yariv Levin, who had enough sway over Netanyahu to continue pushing through the reforms.
Netanyahu responded at the time by announcing that he was firing Gallant, and tens of thousands of Israelis hit the streets to demonstrate on Gallant’s behalf. The firing was eventually retracted, and the events set off a chain reaction that led to a cessation of the reform in favor of negotiations at the President’s Residence.Armed with the memory of the “Gallant Night,” the defense minister confidently called into question the motives of Israel’s prime minister, with the knowledge that Netanyahu is unlikely to fire him this time. The speech brought into the open the bad blood between the two, which has boiled underneath the surface for months, as well as the indecision at Israel’s highest levels of government.
Failure to reach a compromise
The move came after the Prime Minister’s Office and haredi representatives failed to reach a compromise after weeks of negotiations on a new conscription bill that would not be struck down by the High Court of Justice for its inequality. The prime minister and haredi leaders are concerned that the High Court, following a hearing on June 2, will force the state to begin drafting haredim.The deadline for the state to show the High Court that it was making progress – and thus buy itself more time – is Thursday, and Netanyahu needed to present some sort of achievement. His hope was to kill two birds with one stone – gain more time on the haredi conscription issue, and make Gantz look bad in the process.But the plan backfired, and quickly. Gantz himself, as well as nearly all of the opposition party leaders, called out the political maneuver for what it was and stated the obvious: Post-October 7, the security situation and subsequent manpower needs of the IDF were vastly different than they were in 2022. Even members of the Likud, includingGallant in the aforementioned speech, said they would only support a bill that actually met the IDF’s demands.The day’s two political events taken together indicated that Netanyahu is doing everything in his power to placate his extremist partners.
On the issue of Gaza, he is caving to pressure from Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben-Gvir; on the issue of the haredi draft, he is caving to pressure from Shas leader Arye Deri, Construction and Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf, and United Torah Judaism leader Moshe Gafni.Netanyahu’s partners are indicating that they’ve had enough. Gantz has been issuing increasingly sharp criticism of Netanyahu’s attempts to delay the haredi conscription bill, and Gallant has now said publicly what he had been saying privately for months: that the lack of a plan for “the day after” was damaging to Israel’s national security. In addition, the people of Israel now know that two of the senior members of the war cabinet, Gallant and Gantz, do not have faith in the third – Netanyahu.Gallant and Netanyahu met hours after Gallant’s damning speech for a war cabinet meeting, and business may continue as usual for the time being. There is no one better than Netanyahu at political survival, and with his scheduled testimony in his criminal trial fast approaching, he cannot afford to lose power; he is a wounded lion forced into a corner, and the intensity of the fight is rising.The coming days and weeks will likely include a lot of political drama, while in the background, IDF soldiers continue to fight in Gaza, and 100,000 Israelis remain away from their homes.