Detroit Lions 2024 strength of schedule—by several different metrics

As we get a deeper understanding of analytics and predictive power, our breadth of data widens. So when we talk about the NFL schedule and metrics like strength of schedule, our discussion should evolve—and that’s what we’re going to do in this post about the Detroit Lions’ 2024 strength of schedule.

2023 record

Without a doubt, the most common stat to use when determining strength of schedule is compiling the win percentage of the opponents based on last year’s records. By this metric, the Lions have the 11th-hardest schedule.

However, time and time again, it’s been proven that the previous year’s record is a very poor predictor of the following year’s success.

So, lately, strength of schedule has been more accurately measured by something that Sharp Football Analysis whipped up.

Strength of schedule by 2024 Vegas win totals

It’s certainly not a perfect metric, but Sharp Football Analysis has run the data and found that Vegas’ win totals (ie: the over/under on projected wins for each team) has far more predictive power of a team’s true value than using the previous year’s records. That makes plenty of sense since baked into the over/under is an understanding of offseason moves.

By this metric, the Lions have the 12th-hardest schedule.

Mileage

There isn’t a lot of data out there on how travel distance impacts win/loss record, but it makes sense logically that more travel = more weekly disruption = less inconsistent play. There are admittedly a lot of assumptions in that equation, but let’s take a look at how far the Lions have to travel compared to the rest of the league.

The Lions have do have some lengthy road trips to Glendale, San Francisco, Houston, and Dallas, but everything else on their schedule is localized to the midwest, thanks to a close-knit NFC North and an out-of-conference road game against the Colts. And with no international games on the docket, the Lions have the ninth-easiest schedule when it comes to travel distance.

Short weeks

No one likes playing on a short week, but unfortunately for the Lions, they’re pretty much guaranteed at least one short week every year thanks to the Thanksgiving Day matchup (unless the Lions are coming off a bye—which never happens).

That said, the rest of the Lions’ schedule features essentially no other significant short weeks. Their other Thursday game isn’t a short week because it comes off of Thanksgiving. Their first Monday night game doesn’t result in a short week because they go straight into a bye week.

However, the Lions do end the season on a shortened week. They go from a Monday night west coast trip to San Francisco in Week 17 to their season finale against at home against the Minnesota Vikings. That’s bad luck for what could be a very important game for them, but all things considered, two shortened weeks isn’t all that bad. ESPN has a bunch of schedule data—including short weeks—and the Lions don’t seem to be on the bad end of that (although they are not counting the 49ers-to-Vikings weeks as a short week for some reason).

Net rest

One of the more popular statistics as of late has been “net rest,” which measures a team’s rest between games as compared to their opponents. This year, the Lions are just about average, with a total net rest of just -1 day (meaning their opponents have a total of one extra day of rest than they do).

While that is almost as even as you can get, it’s by far the worst in the division. Per ESPN Analytics, here’s the net rest for all NFC North teams:

• Vikings: +12 (3rd in NFL)
• Packers: +8 (5th in NFL)
• Bears: +5 (10th in NFL)
• Lions: -1

Super Bowl odds

I have no idea if this holds any predictive power, but I’ve never seen this before and I found it interesting. Deniz Selman created a strength of schedule ranking based on the Super Bowl odds of their opponents. For example, the Lions have the fourth-best Super Bowl odds, so if you have the Lions on the schedule, it counts as a “four.” Here are the results of crunching those numbers:

As you can see from the chart above, most of the Lions’ games come against the NFL’s middle class (nine games against teams ranked 15-23). However, with six games against top-10 teams, there will certainly be some tough stretches. Overall, the Lions have the 16th-ranked schedule per this metric.

Is there an overall takeaway from all this data? Not really. It seems like a pretty balanced schedule with slightly more tough stretches than easy. But there aren’t significant disadvantaged by the way the schedule was constructed. And, of course, as we learn every year, our perception of teams this time of year hardly matches up with reality.