Slovakia plunged into uncertainty after PM shooting

BRATISLAVA: The shock attack on Slovakia's leader has put a question mark over the direction of his Russia-friendly government, which some analysts believe could respond by clamping down on critics.
Slovak prime minister Robert Fico, 59, suffered multiple gunshot wounds on Wednesday while speaking with the public after an off-site cabinet meeting.
Police immediately detained suspected gunman Juraj Cintula and charged the 71-year-old writer with attempted murder.But with Fico still hospitalised in a serious condition, there has been speculation over what comes next.
Political analyst Tomas Koziak said members of Fico's Smer party were "horrified" because he runs a "one-man party"."They do not know what will happen to their party," said Koziak, a University of International Business ISM analyst.
"If Fico's injury were to disqualify him from political activity, this would mean a really huge problem for Smer."
Fico's ally, Kalinak
Fico's closest ally is defence minister Robert Kalinak, who is also one of four deputy premiers. Asked who would fill in for the leader, he offered no name to reporters.
"The government functions, there are deputies... I don't see any special problem," he said.
Kalinak is "the obvious candidate to take over from Fico for at the least the next few months," said Marcin Zaborowski from the Globsec think tank.
"He is a moderate but he won't do anything to distinguish himself from Fico in foreign policy," the expert told.
"He has repeatedly shown his loyalty to Fico... But his tone will be softer."
Fico is a veteran politician whose remarks on Ukraine -- including questioning its sovereignty -- have soured ties between Slovakia and its neighbour.
After he was elected last year, Slovakia stopped sending weapons to Ukraine, invaded by Russia in 2022.
Were Fico to recover quickly, analyst Pavol Babos said he would likely take on a conciliatory tone that could woo new voters and strengthen Smer.
But "Fico is a politician of many faces, so it is very difficult to predict," Babos told.
"Fico put on a conciliatory face, for example, when he won the parliamentary election. We also saw his very aggressive face during the electoral campaign."
Moves on the media
Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban on Friday said he was praying for political ally Fico.
But "even if the prime minister recovers, he will be out of work for months, and precisely in the most important months", Orban told public radio.
"We are facing an election in Europe that... I believe will decide, together with the US election, the question of war and peace in Europe."
Orban, like Fico, advocates peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Fico has previously called for Kyiv to cede territory to Moscow to end the war -- something Ukraine has repeatedly ruled out.
Orban is also known for having changed laws to restrict independent media, a direction Fico has recently taken.
The Slovak leader sparked protests with controversial changes including a media law that critics say will undermine the impartiality of public broadcasters.
Zaborowski said the government could capitalise on public sympathy for Fico by ploughing ahead with a media clampdown.
"I think the next step here will be to speed up the pacification of public media and their takeover by those close to Fico," he warned.
"We'll also probably see attempts to make life difficult for critical media.
"I think we can expect the government to rush to pass legislation on NGOs that it will use to limit their freedom."
Some government members were "trying to strengthen the position of the ruling coalition on the wave of public anger" analyst Grigorij Meseznikov.
"They're speaking about the implementation of some measures... The tendency is to try to use and to capitalise on" the attack, he added.
"But what I see also inside the ruling coalition is that there are more responsible politicians who are speaking in a different manner."
The shooting has prompted fears of further violence in the polarised nation, although some analysts blame Fico's camp for having generated the atmosphere of hatred.
"There are some politicians who used the emotion of fear in their pre-election campaign and it paid off for them," Koziak said. "But now this came back like a boomerang to Smer."