Pick of the Day: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek, Rome final

For the second event in a row, I have a future on Iga Swiatek to win the tournament: +140 odds to win the Internazionali BNL d’Italia final against Aryna Sabalenka. If you listened to my advice and joined me on that bet, I’d suggest sitting tight here. I’d be very surprised if Swiatek were to lose to Sabalenka in these slower conditions, especially after beating her in the Madrid final.

However, if you are looking to play this match, it does seem like the odds are a little too lopsided. So, I’d suggest playing Sabalenka to cover an alternate 5.5-game spread, dealing with a little juice do it.

For as good as Swiatek is on clay, Sabalenka has covered 5.5 games in each of their last three meetings on the surface. There just isn’t as much that separates these two as there used to be, even though Swiatek is playing some of the best tennis of her career right now. The reality is that Sabalenka is also playing some of the best tennis of her career. Her 80.6% win percentage is a career high, and her hold percentage is up at 79.1%, proving that last year’s 80.8% hold percentage was no fluke. When you combine that solid serving with her superb returning, it’s hard to envision her getting completely blown out.

Sabalenka has also made real strides on clay. Her winning percentage on the surface is just 70.5% over the course of her career, but it’s up at 80.0% over the last 52 weeks. And her hold percentage on the surface is up at 78.4% in that span, despite being down at 73.5% in her career. She has just been a completely different player on clay over the last year, and the results speak for themselves.

Of course, there have been lopsided matches on clay in the history between these two. But Sabalenka has come a long way since then. Her serve is better, her baseline play is cleaner, and her on-court movement has her looking like a completely different player. So, even though Sabalenka will have trouble getting the ball by Swiatek on these courts, I just don’t see her going out there and getting dusted.

This should be a somewhat competitive final. It just might not be as competitive as the classic they played in Madrid.

Lean: Sabalenka +5.5 Games (-175)