Fury will keep distance, Usyk to use guerilla warfare
This is likely to be a very close fight. You’ve got two unbeaten fighters, one in Oleksandr Usyk who has never been knocked down as a professional and the other, in Tyson Fury, who was asleep on the floor against Deontay Wilder and still got up. Fury has a two‑stone weight advantage, as well as a big height and reach edge. So he will use his jab to keep the fight at distance. Usyk has to get inside, hit him to the body and head and move off – a bit like guerilla warfare. If he tries to stand off and box Fury he’s going to be at a disadvantage.
Fury needs to make it boring
Fury must have the patience to keep working everything off his jab. Keep pinging it into Usyk’s face to get him frustrated. When the Ukrainian steps in, clip him with a tight left hook, push him back off and return to keeping him on the end of the jab. Fury’s plan in the first couple of rounds should be to try to demoralise Usyk because he cannot get his shots off. Make it boring. You’ll know how this fight is going to go within the first three rounds. If Tyson’s jab is dominant, he’ll be doing it for 12 rounds.
Fury’s footwork can be damaging
We’ve seen Usyk briefly show some vulnerability, especially to the body, only to regain his composure and scoot out of the way. Anthony Joshua caught him a few times. Daniel Dubois did too. But they weren’t good enough boxers – in terms of movement and footwork – to get into position to capitalise. However, Fury is. For a big guy he has got the movement, and the knowhow, to sustain the attack.
Light is right for Fury
People are talking about Fury coming in too light but I don’t buy that. One of his best wins was against Wladimir Klitschko and he appears to be at a similar weight. It’s also clear he is in far better physical shape than against Francis Ngannou. A lot of that is down to his nutritionist, Greg Marriott. Marriott is the guy who got the weight off Fury when he came out of retirement and he was seven stone overweight. Unfortunately, Greg got cancer and someone else took over. However, he is back on board since that poor performance against Ngannou and with notable results.
Usyk will get close, throw punches, move out
If I am in Usyk’s corner, I am telling him to get really close to Fury. He’s got to feint, move in, hit him to the body, hit him to the head and get out. And he’s got to be quick. I’d also like to see him spin Fury around him, like his compatriot Vasiliy Lomachenko does so well. He should target Fury’s downstairs too. There’s a lot of body that can be hit and punching to the body is easier than punching up.
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Watch for Usyk switching
I don’t know whether it was a smokescreen or not, but during his media workout Usyk boxed orthodox as well as his usual southpaw. That makes sense as when you are fighting a big guy, it’s easier to get inside somebody from the orthodox position. Remember Marvin Hagler’s classic fight with Thomas Hearns? Hagler was a southpaw and the shorter man and initially he found it hard because Hearns used his height and range. So what did Hagler do? He switched to orthodox and started slipping inside Hearns’ jab and hitting him with left hooks, with devastating success. Usyk could well try a similar tactic.
The wildcard? Fury’s eye
We all saw those pictures of Fury’s right eye after it was cut in sparring this year, forcing this fight to be delayed. Make no mistake, Usyk will be targeting it, trying to reopen it and make the vision impaired with blood running into it. When there’s a bad cut, there’s always a chance the referee could stop the fight.
My verdict
Fury to win a very close points decision. But he will have to be very focused because Usyk is a busy fighter. It’s not just the volume of shots he throws, but the feints, the tap downs and setup shots. It has worked throughout his career but it will be a different story against Fury because of his height and range. I suspect Usyk will find it very difficult to get his back hand off because Fury will take a step back, put his arm out to fend him off and tap him with a jab. Don’t be surprised to see a split decision, assuming Fury’s eye isn’t opened up and chaos ensues.