We’re No. 13? That’s fine, Seattle wasn’t good at being No. 1

The big news this past week that Seattle is no longer the fastest-growing city in the nation was generally treated like that’s a bad thing.

The word “anemic” was used. Also, the word “suffer,” as if the city were ill. “Seattle’s population growth suffered a bit of a bump in the boom,” was how the tech news site GeekWire phrased it.

The Wall Street Journal argued it’s yet more proof that citizens are fleeing pell-mell from the libs.

“Another round of census data shows more movement toward limited government,” the Journal said below the headline “Migrating Americans” — with a photo of the Space Needle on Seattle’s skyline.

I call BS. I say: Hooray for us!

When it comes to growth, what Seattle ruefully learned in the 2010s is: You don’t necessarily want to be first. You don’t want to be last, either. But what the new data shows isn’t one of decline, let alone the right-wing fever dream of some “flight to freedom.”

It’s rather that Seattle finds itself in an unusual spot. For the first time in ages, we are neither boom nor bust. Seattle has instead made a steady, restrained recovery from the pandemic, one that is unique among West Coast cities.

We aren’t No. 1 anymore. We’re No. 13. Big whoop. Instead of supercharged growth, which No. 1 Atlanta is now getting (a blue city, by the way), Seattle’s growth can be described with the boring adjective of “moderate.”

Every other big city on the West Coast has shrunk since the pandemic hit. Between July 2020 and July 2023, Los Angeles lost a total of 75,000 people. San Francisco shrank by 61,500, San Jose 40,000 and Portland 22,800. It’s a trend. Seattle? After shrinking in 2020 for the first time in 40 years, by around 8,800, Seattle went back to growing, adding 23,300 for a net three-year gain of around 14,500.

Not too hot, not too cold. Just right?

I’ve been characterized by some critics over the years as a “slow-growther,” or even as anti-growth. But being for or against growth makes about as much sense as being for or against the weather. It comes or goes, and can’t be slowed or stopped; the best you can do is prepare for it. And of course complain about it.

What I tried to highlight in the 2010s was how Seattle was woefully unprepared. That growth boom ratcheted all our systems to near the splintering point, from infrastructure like roads and transit to fiscal structures like wage rates and taxes. It nearly broke our politics. It split the city — minting countless millionaires, while squeezing others right out of town.

Maybe a period of less frenzied population growth now will give space for Seattle to catch its breath from all that.

Take the housing shortage. On the same day the U.S. Census Bureau put out its population estimates, it also published housing counts. The numbers were staggering — and in a good way.

In King County, the population grew last year by 6,100 people. In that same time period, builders added 17,795 housing units countywide, the Census Bureau said.

When the goal is to chip away at a housing deficit, creating a whopping three times as many new homes as people moving here is a surefire way to do it.

Or take Seattle. In the three years following July 1, 2020, as the city grew by the above-mentioned total of 14,500 people, developers opened 25,450 new housing units inside city limits, city data shows. 

Since then, from last July through March 2024, they’ve completed an additional 11,074 units. This makes right now arguably the most robust period of housing construction in the city’s history. They’ve been adding more than 1,000 units per month.

Just accessory dwelling units in the city’s formerly single-family zones have been going in at a rate of nearly 100 per month.

This doesn’t mean everybody’s housing problems are solved — for starters, new housing is usually more expensive than old housing. The feverish rate of building also isn’t likely to last. It’s still good, no? Moderate population growth combined with lots of housing construction is exactly the sweet spot the city wants to be in to make headway on one of our biggest problems.

A new report from the state Department of Commerce shows that in King County, housing of all types has been going in at 123% of the annual estimated need during the period from 2020 to 2023. Multifamily housing was built at 161% of the estimated need for low-income renters. It’s the only county in the state where progress was made in this area. We’re playing catchup, yes. But at least we’re playing.

When judging what’s been happening in Seattle, it’s interesting to compare how fellow travelers on the West Coast view us, as opposed to Fox News or The Wall Street Journal, who have their own ideological axes to grind. Or even to how we view ourselves — which is often with civic insecurity.

Recently the San Francisco newspaper journeyed up here to do a story on how it is that Seattle could be recovering so much better than they are. That’s right — after decades of Seattle yearning to be on the world-class map like San Francisco, now they want to be more like us.

“What’s different in Seattle?” the Chronicle asked. “Locals credit a pro-growth housing policy with less red tape compared with California, more downtown housing compared with San Francisco’s office-heavy district, and a more relaxed lifestyle that still has proximity to good jobs.”

Citing all the cranes, a vibe of “energy” in the shops and even, believe it or not, our cheaper prices, the Chronicle summed up: “Despite remote work leaving the downtown quieter, Seattle still feels like a boomtown.”

Say what? It says a great deal about Seattle’s inner id that we’d never think of speaking about ourselves in such a gauzy light.

Oh well. Being No. 1 was always a little awkward for the old fishing village. It wasn’t … Seattle nice. We’re No. 13! That should suit us just fine. At least until the next front rolls in.