The Carolina Hurricanes Will Be the NHL's Most Interesting Team This Offseason

Headed into their second-round matchup, the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers were two of the best, most consistent teams in the 2024 NHL playoff field.

Both had elements of a team you could see winning the Stanley Cup: The Canes have built an identity on a sound even-strength, shot-containing and shot-taking game that has kept them perennially contenders for the past six seasons. The Rangers have thrived all season with their best players cashing in on the power play.

In a rare confluence of the old boys' club mentality and the new-school analytics focus on even strength, the Rangers faced criticism for getting so many of their goals on the power play.

The Presidents' Trophy winners are so effective on the man advantage that the oddsmakers heralded them the underdogs of the series despite their winning the most games in the league and being a higher seed. Were they relying too much on the power play?

Nope.

The Rangers won the series in six games and didn't change a thing when it came to their process.

Breaking news, folks: Scoring goals is good in the playoffs because it's a lot harder to do in the postseason. You don't get extra points for scoring at even strength, and the "easier" goals that come with more players on the ice are absolutely essential when battling the best teams in the league.

According to NaturalStatTrick, the Hurricanes had the clear edge at five on five throughout the series. They had a 55.34 percent edge in Corsi, outscored the Rangers 13-12, had a 51.74 percent edge in expected goals and a 62-51 edge in high-danger chances.

They still almost got swept and put themselves in such a hole down 3-0 that despite their hardest efforts or even strength prowess, they fell in Game 6 the exact way the Rangers had been rising: The goals and saves just took less effort for New York.

The two things that sent the Rangers over the edge against the Hurricanes are clear as day: More power-play goals on offense and better goaltending keeping them in the five-on-five game just enough to neutralize the Hurricanes' edge.

The series loss sets up an ominous offseason, featuring a coach, eight crucial free agents and two crucial restricted free agents to sign or let walk.

The Future with Rod Brind'Amour

First, we've got head coach and Jack Adams winner Rod Brind'Amour, whose contract negotiations made the news between the first and second rounds. I reported that the Hurricanes and Brind'Amour were close in negotiations, but the Canes rescinded the offer.

During ESPN's broadcast of the Canucks-Oilers Game 6, insider Kevin Weekes revealed that the 53-year-old agreed to an extension and will be behind the bench again.

Since Tom Dundon took over ownership of the Hurricanes, he's had a hard-nosed philosophy on what he's willing to spend, and negotiating with him can be a tough process. Because of this, he allows most of his staff to interview with other teams (GM Don Waddell interviewed with the Wild a few years back, assistant GM Eric Tulsky has been in various conversations, assistant GM Paul Krepelka moved on to the Panthers, and assistant coach Dean Chynoweth moved on to the Leafs).

Negotiating with Dundon can leak out into the public, partially because the negotiations take longer than an average situation even if he wants to keep the staff member, and partially because some external pressure is needed to move them along.

All this is to say: When Brind'Amour's negotiation troubles were publicized, it didn't mean he was seriously looking elsewhere. It means he is worth more than what he was being offered, and his camp was displeased with the fact that it hadn't yet been settled.

Despite the happy ending, there are nitpicks that need to be directed at the long-time Canes coach for the series loss to New York. Brind'Amour's loyalty to the matchup game and consistent, defensively sound players were a source of criticism throughout the second round, as the Hurricanes were heralded Cup contenders and made the playoffs but missed the Final for the sixth consecutive year.

My take?

1. The power play disappearing completely until Game 4 is incredibly problematic, especially considering it was a top-three power play in the regular season. There's something telegraphic about it that must be fixed. I'd venture some of this is on the staff and also on the personnel. Brind'Amour's on a shorter leash this year, and he may need to budge on certain assistant coaches, but the best players also needed to step up far more than they did.

2. The Hurricanes aren't getting virtually any coach for cheaper than what they want to offer Brind'Amour, let alone a Jack Adams-caliber coach who has rolled with the punches and squeezed career years out of less talented players to make the playoffs every year since he's been head coach. No, it's no longer good enough, but no, it's not all up to him.

3. The second-round exit may have eased negotiations. The Hurricanes had more leverage and Brind'Amour now has more to prove.

4. Brind'Amour returning gives clarity to the players who are free agents.

Will Carolina Retain Guentzel?

According to CapFriendly, the Hurricanes will be able to play with around $27.3 million in cap space (keep in mind the cap is set to rise, etc).

You've got pending unrestricted free agents in Jake Guentzel, Jordan Martinook, Stefan Noesen, Teuvo Teravainen, Jalen Chatfield, Tony DeAngelo, Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei. You've got RFAs in Seth Jarvis, Jack Drury and Martin Nečas, with Nečas and Drury eligible for arbitration.

You've seen Guentzel come in and do the exact Rangers-esque thing that's been needed to elevate this team, and you've seen him do it with sometimes oddly limited minutes. Re-signing him should be a top priority, and also getting comfortable enough to let him fully rip, matchups be damned, is essential. He's due for a raise from his modest $6 million AAV, so let's say he roughly eats around $9 million of the remaining cap space.

"This team for sure can win the Stanley Cup," Guentzel told reporters Saturday. "I think it's right there. This puts you in a good spot to do that. I want to do that more than anything, and that's all I care about. That definitely plays a factor into it. Hopefully, you can kind of get some stability and be able to sign here long-term."

With Brind'Amour returning, that could strengthen the case for Carolina to bring Guentzel back.

The Rest of the Free Agents

If we've learned anything this year, we've learned the Canes also need to take care of RFA Seth Jarvis. If it isn't a bridge deal, you're looking at a worst-case scenario of around an $8 million AAV. With those two taken care of, you're down to $10.3 million.

It's simply impossible to keep all of Teuvo Teräväinen, Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei with only $10.3 million to work with, and they all played huge roles in the Hurricanes' success and consistency. Pesce has been seeking a justified opportunity to establish himself as a first-pairing defenseman for years now, and he's likely to be the most expensive and difficult to re-sign of the bunch.

It will be a huge blow to the Canes, but given the desperate market for defensemen right now, it's hard seeing him return. If you lose Pesce, you want to fight to sign Skjei, which will also be difficult.

Skjei set a career high for points in the regular season this year with 47, after setting a career high in goals last year with 18. He told reporters Saturday he is seeking a "fair offer," which is probably a modest increase from his current $5.25 AAV. Let's say the Hurricanes are willing to give him around $6 million before letting him walk.

Now you've got around $4.3-$7 million to sign Nečas, Drury, Martinook, Noesen, Teravainen, Chatfield and/or DeAngelo.

It's not a lot of wriggle room, which means there might be trades on the way.

Playing Fantasy GM for the Hurricanes

It's been heavily rumored that Nečas is on the trading block and unlikely to sign an extension in the summer, according to Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman on his 32 Thoughts podcast.

If Carolina cannot sign the 25-year-old, it will be forced to trade Nečas. He's been constantly on the verge of breaking out but needs the room and space the Hurricanes can't give him to explore his talent at center. A change of scenery could help everyone in this scenario, especially if the return is ideally a roster forward on an entry-level contract.

That'll perhaps take away the need to re-sign either Martinook or Noesen. The latter has outplayed his contract and will likely seek a raise (as he should) elsewhere, and Martinook is likely keen on a "hometown," short-term deal. If the alternate captain is willing to keep it to less than $2 million (ideally $1 million), you keep him around.

While Teräväinen might be seeking a raise, and has been a pillar of the team for years—especially next to countryman Sebastian Aho—he has had his ups and downs the past few seasons. Sentiment aside, the danger is to overpay him, regardless of past success. He's got to be in the $6 million range if all of the above stands.

This clearly leaves much to be desired for a team that needs a few more pieces of high talent, not subtraction after subtraction. Perhaps exploring a trade or two either frees up some cap space or results in a "hockey deal" that could provide each team with a need.

Would there be any takers for Jesperi Kotkaniemi at $4.8 million? Friedman did speculate that there could be some thought to buying out the former Canadiens player, but will the team stomach the long length of a buyout?

No matter how it shakes out, the Hurricanes, their just re-signed coach, their slew of free agents and their pressure to succeed in this window will make for the most interesting offseason in the NHL.