OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA - JANUARY 13: Jalen Williams #8 and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the ... [+]
The Oklahoma City Thunder crashed out of the playoffs with a 117-116 loss to the Dallas Mavericks in Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals on Saturday. It was a disappointing end to an otherwise marvelous season, one that cemented the Thunder as legitimate championship contenders.
Thunder general manager Sam Presti came under fire during the series for not taking a more aggressive approach at the February trade deadline to shore up his team's weaknesses. The Thunder acquired veteran swingman Gordon Hayward from the Charlotte Hornets for Tre Mann, Vasilije Micic, Davis Bertans and a pair of second-round picks, but they didn't tap into their deep cache of future first-rounders.
That appeared to have been intentional. Heading into the season, Presti told reporters that the Thunder needed to "finish our breakfast before we start acting like we're on the cusp of something."
"I think this is part of the headwinds you face as a young team," he added. "I wouldn't want to 'cash in' to become average or above-average. I don't think that's really what anyone's expecting. When people say 'go all-in,' I don't think they're saying 'go all-in to have one season that's slightly better than your last season.' I think when the team's performing at an extremely high level, you then know, 'Wait, something could help us.' And you have better information."
This year's playoffs gave the Thunder that information.
Other than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who appeared in the playoffs as a rookie with the Los Angeles Clippers and the following year during his first season with the Thunder, none of OKC's other key rotation players had any meaningful playoff experience. This postseason was a proving grounds for all of them, and it should help shape how the Thunder build their roster moving forward.
First, the good news. Gilgeous-Alexander, who finished second in MVP voting this season behind Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, showed no drop-off whatsoever between the regular season and the playoffs. He averaged 30.2 points on 49.6% shooting, 7.2 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.3 steals in 39.9 minutes per game, and he scored at least 24 points in each of his 10 postseason games.
While Gilgeous-Alexander isn't a particularly potent or high-volume three-point shooter, his herky-jerky style and three-level scoring ability made him just as unstoppable in the playoffs as he was throughout the regular season. The Thunder should have full confidence in his ability to continue anchoring them moving forward after seeing how he fared in this playoff run.
Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren were less consistent than Gilgeous-Alexander, but that's to be expected with young players in their first postseason. Both should learn from their experience against the Mavericks and use it as fuel all offseason to continue shoring up the weak spots in their respective games.
While Williams struggled with his efficiency against Dallas, he lit up the Zion Williamson-less New Orleans Pelicans with a well-rounded 21.3 points on 52.9% shooting, 7.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 1.8 steals per game in the first round. Holmgren averaged only 15.8 points on 51.4% shooting and 6.2 rebounds against the Mavericks, but he chipped in 2.5 blocks per game throughout OKC's playoff run.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren and Williams give the Thunder a young, high-upside Big Three to build around moving forward. But the playoffs also exposed what became increasingly apparent throughout the regular season: Josh Giddey might not be the fourth member of that long-term core.
Giddey struggled in Game 1 against the Pelicans, finishing with only two points on 1-of-6 shooting, three rebounds and three assists in 20 minutes, but he bounced back with 16.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game over the next three games in that series. He wasn't as fortunate against the Mavericks, who took advantage of his iffy three-point shooting and routinely dared him to beat them from deep.
Over the first four games of the Mavericks series, Giddey averaged only 6.0 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists in only 13.3 minutes per game. Ahead of Game 5, head coach Mark Daigneault opted to move sharpshooter Isaiah Joe into the starting lineup ahead of Giddey, who mustered 11 points, three rebounds and two assists in 12 minutes off the bench. However, he had only two points on 1-of-3 shooting, four rebounds and one assist in 11 minutes in the closeout Game 6 loss on Saturday.
Unless Giddey drastically improves as a three-point shooter in short order, he's a somewhat wonky fit next to Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Holmgren. He thrives with the ball in his hand, but the Thunder would benefit from someone who's more capable of creating shots off the dribble. The Mavericks exposed their lack of a pull-up threat, as both Joe and Lu Dort are mostly catch-and-shoot players.
Rebounding was an obvious Achilles heel for the Thunder, who ranked 27th in rebounds per game during the regular season, although it didn't crush them against Dallas until Game 6. The Mavericks outrebounded the Thunder 47-31 while staging their furious second-half comeback, but they finished with only 28 more rebounds than the Thunder across their six-game series.
Still, Dallas' size and length disrupted OKC's rhythm on offense. The Thunder could benefit from adding more heft either to pair with Holmgren in the frontcourt or as a change-of-pace option whenever he sits. Jonas Valanciunas might be an interesting free-agent target in that regard, even though he isn't much of a three-point shooter.
The Thunder could create more than $35 million of salary-cap space this offseason, according to Keith Smith of Spotrac, and they're teeming with future draft capital to dangle in trades. They have an opportunity to pursue major roster upgrades this offseason; they just need to decide on their biggest priorities to address.
They could make a run at a shooter in free agency such as Malik Monk, Gary Trent Jr. or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, or they could pursue one on the trade market like Anfernee Simons of the Portland Trail Blazers or Luke Kennard of the Memphis Grizzlies (if the Grizzlies pick up his team option). Valanciunas, Isaiah Hartenstein and Daniel Theis could make sense as free-agent targets to fortify their frontcourt, to varying extends.
Either way, few (if any) teams have as much optionality as the Thunder both this offseason and moving forward. They now need to use what they learned about their roster throughout this playoff run to make changes and better prepare themselves for next year's postseason.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
