Chicago Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga delivers during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the ... [+]
The best pitcher in MLB this season just joined the league as a free agent from Japan, but he’s not the one we all expected. Shota Imanaga has been sensational for the Chicago Cubs with a 0.84 ERA through nine starts.
In addition to ERA, Imanaga leads the league in FIP (2.21) and pitching WAR (3.0, Baseball-Reference version). He has allowed just seven runs, five earned runs, 40 hits, and nine walks in 53 2/3 innings with 58 strikeouts.
The left-hander was overshadowed in free agency by his counterpart Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a massive 12-year, $325 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. While Yamamoto has pitched well, Imanaga has been untouchable despite a more modest contract and lower expectations.
His time with the Cubs could last anywhere from two to five years depending on a complex arrangement of options. In addition to the $1 million signing bonus he already pocketed, he will receive $9 million in 2024 and $13 million in 2025. There are mutual options in 2026 and 2027 and a club option in 2028. He will count $13.25 million towards the luxury tax in each year of the contract.
At 5-foot-10 and 175 pounds, Imanaga isn’t physically imposing. His 91.9 mph average fastball velocity isn’t either—he ranks in the 18th percentile in fastball velo. Yet he’s succeeding by throwing only two pitches the majority of the time. His four-seam fastball accounts for 58.2% of his pitches and his splitter has a 31.8% usage rate. He occasionally mixes in a sweeper and curveball, but his four-seamer and splitter account for about nine out of every 10 pitches.
Despite its lack of velocity, his fastball has overpowered opposing hitters. It averages 17% more rise than average and he throws it from a low vertical release point of 5.5 feet. This gives it a deceptive vertical approach angle that makes it appear to rise even more. Statcast gives it a run value of 13 so far, which makes it the single most valuable pitch in MLB this year.
Even though Imanaga’s free agency lacked the fanfare of Yamamoto’s, he was still a highly-sought hurler after an excellent career in Japan. He led the NPB in strikeouts last season with 174—five more than Yamamoto registered even though he threw 16 fewer innings. His superb control has also carried over to MLB as he walked only 24 batters in 148 innings last season.
The biggest areas of concern was that he was susceptible to home runs. He surrendered 17 of them last year despite playing in a league with a dearth of power hitters. Only 16 players amassed 20 home runs and just two hit more than 30. Not many pitchers reduce their home run rate when they jump from Japan to America, but that’s exactly what he’s done so far.
Imanaga wasn’t due to become a free agent in Japan for another two years. NPB rules bind players to their teams for ten seasons before free agency, and he debuted in 2016. The Yokohama DeNA BayStars agreed to post him and collected a posting fee from the Cubs when they signed him.
Of course, an 0.84 ERA is unsustainable over a full season. While he’s bound to come back to earth, he’s established himself as a front-line starter for Chicago and one of the best signings of the past offseason.
